September 15th, 2008
12:45 PM ET
14 years ago

CNN Electoral Map: Minnesota now a toss-up

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption="CNN now considers Minnesota a tossup state."](CNN) - As evidence of a tightening presidential race mounts, CNN is altering its Electoral Map, shifting Minnesota and its ten electoral votes from leaning towards Barack Obama to a toss up state.

With the shift of Minnesota, CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 233 electoral votes and John McCain 189. There are 116 electoral votes up for grabs; 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

A CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted two weeks ago had Obama up 12 points over McCain in Minnesota. But a Minneapolis-St.Paul Star Tribune poll released Sunday suggests the race is tied, with each candidate getting the support of 45 percent of Minnesota voters questioned in the survey. The poll was conducted entirely after the end of the Republican National Convention, which was held in St. Paul, Minnesota.

"Events are moving so quickly in the presidential race that polls taken before the Republican convention probably aren't accurate reflections of what is going on in swing states today," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "The pace of the campaign means that we may see more shifts, in either direction, in states like Minnesota."

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Minnesota
soundoff (186 Responses)
  1. rob

    John McSame is a fool. "The economy is basically strong" Go back to one of your 7 homes and go to bed or play a fiddle John. Let them eat cake!

    September 15, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |

    O B A M A--B I D E N--–T O--–S W I T C H---G E A R S--–

    T O--R U N---F O R-–M A Y O R--–O F---W A S I L L A

    September 15, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  3. Dana from the Chi

    You can't go by polls!! Those polls are not reflecting veterans, new voters or the young voters and probably some of the independents too!!

    September 15, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  4. Bob Indianapolis, IN

    "Our economy, I think, still, the fundamentals of our economy are strong.."

    Yeah, and the Edsel is still fundamentally a car...

    September 15, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  5. Daphne

    America needs to WAKE UP! Turn on the t.v. Our country is facing the biggest financial disaster since the Great Depression! We cannot afford to have another Republican in office and more empty promises!

    September 15, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  6. McCain the Copy-Cat

    You guys need to stop lying. McCain can bearly get 2000 people to show up at his ralley and you wont us to beleive he is gain so must.

    What kind of game you people are playing in this election. How about
    showing us the people who are protesting Palin for VP in Alaska.

    September 15, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  7. FactCheck

    > Can you say "Mondale landslide?"

    Can you say Bob Dole? Obama just picked up Virginia on the electoral map.

    September 15, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  8. Joe Z

    Good, turn that map red on election day. Obama & biden have been reduced to simply a smear campaign & it's not working. They can't speak about the issues as they don't even know where they stand (it changes daily). Not sure why the libs "Cant wait for the debates", there's a reason obama is running scared from the town-hall debates with McCain, do you remember how badly obama was embarrased in the last debate? Sarah Palin will do fine in her debates as she knows where she stands on each issue & won't be stammering/stuttering like obama, desperately trying to think of an answer that his current audience will approve of.

    September 15, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  9. Dave, Illinois

    Had to post this here since the Obamite machine filled the other forums:

    Hey ignorant Obamites: According to the economic indicators and historical stats during downturns, the economy is basically sound. McCain was speaking from a statistical standpoint. He has repeated that he knows people are stressed financially and has offerred solutions that have always worked in the past.
    What does Mr. Change-empty-suit want to do? Raise taxes of course! Why don't you knuckleheads take economics 101 before you open your ignorant mouths.

    September 15, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  10. Capablanca

    Obama had nobody to blame but himself for this. He totally deflated the Messiah bandwagon by picking Biden. Even Biden thinks Hillary would have been a better pick. Obama shows a really serious lack of judgment in uniting the ticket. It's a shame he have come this far without being exposed.

    September 15, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  11. Junla


    Maverick of "Copy n Paste".

    Don't know how to "send" an email message...but got a badge for copy and past.

    How many of Bush policies is he going to copy and paste? All.

    September 15, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  12. McCain is Shameless

    If we can't trust McCain to tell the truth, how can we trust him to lead?

    September 15, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  13. The polls will change

    The polls will change again and again before this election. It's stunning to me who they poll, less than a couple thousand people determine a states swing. Who are they polling? I suggest polling 2K registered people from each group. I don't think the numbers are always accurate.

    Hell I never get polled!!!

    September 15, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  14. mitchell

    if mccain cant push a button on a computer, how can he push THE button? even i can type with one finger.

    September 15, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  15. FactCheck

    > logically this means that Obama believes in the claim that
    >"the fundamentals of the US economy is weak"

    What else would you call it when you borrow $9 trillion from the Chinese to finance a war. McCain's economy advisor co-authored the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. You may want to look that one up.

    September 15, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  16. jay

    The MSM wants Mcbush to win. When the MSM press why he should or could win this election, somethings happens. With all of the big companies failing and MCbush think the economy is strong fate shows why Obama should be president. Obama is going to win Minn. hands down.

    September 15, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  17. GARY

    I just love it all the obama lovers and the media see the race slipping away, i mean zogby has mccain ahead by 5 in pennsylvania it even in minnesota , obama is up by only 2 in michigan, even i a republican find it hard to believe that obama is only leading by 5 points, my son in florida talk about the election every day we breathed a sigh of relief when obama picked biden instead of clinton, that when this race turned to mccain if obama picked hilliary there is no way mccain wins you democrats blew it again unbelievable

    September 15, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  18. Wally

    McCain is going up in the polls...
    As bad as alot of folks feel about the GOP, they would still rather have McCain/Palin over Obama/Biden...Doesn't say much for Obama/Biden.
    Does it.

    September 15, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  19. kittu

    If the republicans win this election, america will surely be in the dog house and that is what people are asking for.

    September 15, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  20. Maggie

    I read on MSNBC today that electoral votes stand at Obama 233 and McCain 227 because they gave Florida to McCain and I think it was also New Mexico. There were a couple other states that they took from Likely Obama to Lean to Obama. Please get your records straight.

    CNN, lets see the true figures and stop hiding the correct standings from the voters because they favor Obama and that's what you want to voters to see.

    September 15, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  21. Craig

    McCain absolutely will not win Minnesota. This would be the first time since Nixon that Minnesota supports the GOP candidate, and I just can't see that actually happening.

    Minnesota, which has typically had one of the highest employment rates in the country, sank this year to nearly 6% unemployment under a Republican governor as well as president. For god sake, Pawlenty and our worthless lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau slashed funds to fix transportation infrastructure before the dilapidated 35W bridge collapsed. HELLO.

    I will be utterly dumbfounded if that's the way the ballots fall. Sorry, McCain. We're not giving you our electoral votes.

    September 15, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  22. Spencer from VA

    Tony in Boston

    What makes you think that my hometown of NY will vote for McSame? If you know my fellow New Yorkers as I do, they'll say your nuts. You are from Boston though and I can understand why you'll make an idiotic statement like that.

    September 15, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  23. Alex

    I live in Minnesota. Minnesota a toss-up state? I refuse to believe it. I mean, we voted for DUKAKIS. We are no fair-weather Democrats. We also refuse to let the hicks in the sticks decide our governance for us.

    CNN might call it a toss-up, but in my opinion it's not a true reflection of the state's makeup, especially in the Metropolitan area.

    OBAMA 08!

    September 15, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  24. Scott Thomson

    Waken up America. Surely you can't fall for the Republican rhetoric again. The Democrats weren't much better but I think that recently they have awakened to the fact that you can't continue on the path that you are on at the moment and nor can the world. Your economy is in the doldrums, corporations have greater power than government and global warming is almost at the point of no return. Change is not a throwaway slogan but a necessary solution.

    September 15, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  25. d

    Here we go again.. every time I try and post a response to these polls it gets brushed under the rug.
    People need to understand that these polls are FAULTY!!.
    They DO NOT take into consideration a growing segment of the voting public. That is the 18-30 voting block that overwhelmingly rely on wireless media to communicate. Many, ok, most do not even have home phones, and the pollsters ONLY call landline/residence phones.
    Please, CNN, why not do a report on this? There is a huge block of voters out there not even participating in these polls. Of course, the campaigns themselves know this….and I am sure McCain knows the truth that his one point lead in the polls is in actuality probably a 6 point deficit

    September 15, 2008 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
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