September 19th, 2008
04:08 PM ET
12 years ago

Electoral Map Update: McCain gains

CNN's latest electoral map.

CNN's latest electoral map.

(CNN) - Call it the tale of two contests. While Barack Obama is making a modest rise and John McCain slightly dropping in the national polls, it's just the opposite in some states.

An update of the CNN Electoral Map Friday suggests a tightening in the race for electoral votes in the crucial battleground states. CNN is moving Missouri, and its 11 electoral votes, from "toss up" to "lean McCain," and is moving Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes at stake, from "lean Obama" to "toss up."

"One reason for the switch in Missouri is the latest polls in that state. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll indicated a five-point advantage for John McCain in the Show-Me State, and a recent ARG poll indicated the same margin," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Wisconsin, our poll and a Big Ten Battleground poll both showed a statistical dead heat - one of the key factors prompting a switch in that state."

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

"Historically, state polls have often been leading indicators of national trends," noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. "Voters in tightly contested states like Missouri and Wisconsin are being inundated with the campaigns' latest television ads right now. National polls are predominatly made up of respondents from big states like New York, California and Texas where the campaigns are running no advertising at all."

CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Barack Obama would capture 223 electoral votes, to McCain's 200, leaving 115 electoral votes would still be up for grabs. The 23 electoral-vote-lead for Obama is down from a 44-point estimated lead he held in CNN's previous electoral map. Both men are well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The closer race in the states comes as Obama is now up 3 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, which is an average of the most recent national surveys. Last week McCain held a small advantage. But while national polls are important, the fight for presidency is a battle for the states, and their electoral votes.
CNN is also moving Oregon, and its 7 electoral votes, from lean Obama to safe Obama. The moving of Oregon does not affect the electoral count.

"The latest polls in Oregon indicate a 10-point lead for Obama," noted Holland. "Oregon hasn't voted for the GOP candidate since 1984, and neither campaign seems to be investing much time or money in the state. That, coupled with the latest survey results, helped move the state into the 'safe' column for Obama."

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign plays out over the remaining seven weeks.

soundoff (314 Responses)
  1. jaye

    Ohioans are nice people – they love their sports and they love their country. For CNN to even suggest that Ohioans will not vote for him and Obama because of a football comment is just plain stupid. Our country is in crisis, fols, crisis!
    Why is CNN making such a big deal of this Joe Biden remark – why isn't CNN investigating Palin and McCain and all their secrets and lies?
    I smell a media agenda to get McCain elected.

    September 19, 2008 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  2. Swing vote

    COUNTRY FIRST!!................NOT OBAMA FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! he Lie after Lie after Lie....NOBAMA, NOBIDENLADEN.
    GO McCain/Palin 08

    September 19, 2008 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  3. Dentri

    Obama will lose big time Mcgovern will be his brother.No way to put a guy to be US Comander in Chief when even doesn't even support troops.Please guy check the facts.This guy vote against US Military ,But he can go in Germany to speak in front of 200,000 people but in the same time you can;t see a single video clip with US soldier.Thank God for America who will choose the best .
    Please let us out from Socialism ,and Comunism,and Walfare.This is what Obama Preach.Walfare.
    Go MCain 475 Electoral vots

    September 19, 2008 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  4. Mil

    Do you really think that BHOBAMA care for YOU! Please wake up, he only see himself, and he is using all of you supporters to win. It's all about him! Don't tell me that you can't see that! Obama supporters open your eyes and come back to Earth.

    September 19, 2008 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  5. daniel mccarthy

    Obama will socialize/destroy this country, with the help of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosy, during his first 2 years in office. So anything that keeps Obama out of the White House is good for America. And I am setting aside that Obama and his wife Michelle are white hating racists.

    September 19, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  6. Political junkee

    Ok, fellow Americans............I have been doing this for over 40 years.
    Write this down and see how accurate I am on 11/4/08"

    McCain.................304 Electoral Votes including wins in Florida,
    Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa.
    On Election Day he will come very close to possibly winning
    Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

    Obama.............234 Electoral Votes including wins in New Hampshire,
    Colorado and Nevada.

    And the polls will show the overall reason.............McCain choose
    a woman for his running mate and Obama made the biggest
    mistake by not offering the Vice President to Hillary Clinton.

    September 19, 2008 05:16 pm at 5:16 pm |
  7. Patrick, Fairfield, CA

    Love this map. It would appear, according to the latest article just posted on the Ticker that Ohio might swing into McCain's favor after Joe Biden dissed the Buckeyes. So much for that swing state!

    September 19, 2008 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm |
  8. jaye

    Wonder how much the McCain campaign paid the blacks against Obama to disrupt Obama's speech in Florida.

    September 19, 2008 05:17 pm at 5:17 pm |
  9. frank

    Young people – This election is entirely on your shoulders. If you show up Obama wins and if you dont McCain wins. Its all in your hands.

    When i say this i mean every state, every county, every city. Everything is in play. If any of you fumbles the ball on the goal line because you think the election is in the bag then we will have 4 more years of deep regret. Dont take anything for granted go out and lets get it done Young people of American. This race is so much more about you then any of us.

    Here is your Mantra


    September 19, 2008 05:18 pm at 5:18 pm |
  10. white independant in small town uSA

    Has anyone "else" noticed, Palin is running for president now, making most all the speeches, calling it the Palin McCain ticket ??? people actually leave places where McCain alone is scheduled to be, and if Palin is with him, soon as Palin stops speaking, and is McCains turn to speak, again people LEAVE...whats really going on here ????? I smell big RATS....I do nOT want Palin in white house in any position, putting herself and husband ABOVE the law..I couldnt get away with ignoring a subpeona...they are downright scary !!!!! How anyone in their right mind could vote for a republican now stuns me !!!! OK, so maybe Obama isnt everything we would like him to be, but he is far better than Palin-Mccain ticket..repugs said white house isnt place for "on the job training", well, that part they got right, however, Obama has had the good sense and judgement to surround himself with smart people to help him, Palin _ McCain have nOT.

    September 19, 2008 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  11. David

    On Election day you can count on Indiana definitely delivering for McCain.

    September 19, 2008 05:20 pm at 5:20 pm |
  12. shawn atlanta

    If the country was following McCain's plan senior Social Security would be caught up in the market crisis. Why is no one speaking about John McCain's record instead of destractions about football and basketball teams.

    September 19, 2008 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  13. Mike T. Vaughn

    Wow I did not know there were so many people who wanted to get screwed another 4 years of Bushs policy with McCain...........I see I was wrong

    September 19, 2008 05:21 pm at 5:21 pm |
  14. Eleanor

    I get the presidential polls every day in my email and thats NOT what they are saying
    People are starting to realize how dumb Palin is and her star is fading fast!!!
    Dont you people get it!!!!
    McSame has been in washington for 26 years and never done anything to change a thing...Why are people believing he will suddenly change things now !!!!!he has one goal and one goal only THE POWER of being president
    He will change things all right
    more wars!!!!
    the DRAFT will come back and your kids will be going to some useless war like Iraq instead of college!!!
    You all need to wake up!!!!!
    He is a multi millionaire FOR the RICH
    So go ahead and vote for him and wallow in the same misery you have been in for 8 years and while your at it think about how OLD he is
    and that Palin could be President in aheart beat!!!
    What a terrifying thought that is!!!!

    September 19, 2008 05:23 pm at 5:23 pm |
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