October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
14 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. watch out for Florida

    I bet a million that there will be shenanigans in Florida....

    October 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  2. Griff

    I lived in Kenya, before Barack Obama was born. No I'm nothing special. But I believe in "The Planet", as a whole. Not to be divided for a "Dream". I have studied the Middle-East most of my Adult life.
    If you dare destroy this past five years, of American Involvment in the Middle East??? You are a "Little People.... LIke The USSR, in 1959..

    October 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  3. Terri

    You know i feel exactly the same way when i read the Repub posts on every single website out there – they are soooooooooo stupid. If you want to read intelligent posters – come on over to Huffington Post, although you won't find many trolls like yourself over there – just a few – and those are 99% out of the time STUPID.

    October 1, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  4. Americans unite

    I must say, there are some shifty sneaky dishonest humans on this site.

    STILL pretending Obama is a Muslim is so lame.

    Obama is going to WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN

    face it, and be happy a 72 year old fuzzy head and his BUSH in drag VP pick will NOT be in the White House...

    October 1, 2008 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
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