October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
13 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)


    October 1, 2008 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  2. Don

    Spinning Spin!

    October 1, 2008 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  3. NoTrustInPolitics

    As I always say, polls and everything based on them are unreliable.

    October 1, 2008 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  4. Bridgette-PA


    OBAMA/BIDEN -08!

    October 1, 2008 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  5. Jasmine

    Prepare yourself for a few acts of desperation from the GOP Camp.

    October 1, 2008 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  6. New Day

    Cool... I guess this is a feel-good story for all that back Obama. However, a poll result and 4 quarters is still worth a dollar.

    October 1, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  7. Will from NYC

    Obama supporters do not become complacent. Make sure you and every Obama supporter you know shows up to vote.

    Diebold is still out there. Vote paper if you can.

    October 1, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  8. katiec

    Am happy to see the American voters realizing who
    can best lead our country.
    Mccain/palin's lies, distortions and attacks are catching
    up with them and people are tired of the dirty politics.
    And the republican leadership.

    October 1, 2008 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  9. The Nightingale Sings in Berkley Square

    Hey don't put Ohio is a toss up. Ohio is sold for McCain. And rightly so. McCain will ensure we get a tax cut and he will balance the budget. He will bring the troops home from Iraq with honor while securing that oil rich country thus preventing Iran from taking control of it.

    Obama is risky and he will give a speech but I don't trust him or his wife. Isn't his wife a piece of work?

    McCain will take action while Obama will give a speech. You decide.

    October 1, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |

    h o n o r,,,,,,,,,c o u n t r y,,,,,,,,,,,,f i r s t,,,,,,,,,,,,,,m c c a i n,,,,,,,,,h a s,,,,,,,,,

    m o r e,,,,,,,,,,s u p p o r t e r s,,,,,,,,,,,,n o t,,,,,,,,,,s ay i n g ,,,,,,,,,,i t,,,,,,,,,,

    o u t ,,,,,,,,,,,l o u d

    October 1, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  11. Kevin

    I'm voting early this Saturday for Obama (in Ohio). My mind was already made up in 2004 after Obama spoke at the convention. I see him as very intelligent and his heart is in the right place. This nation needs to heal the divisions that started in 2000.

    October 1, 2008 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  12. Bruce

    the only poll that counts is the one on 11/4
    make sure you get out and vote, and if the lines are long wait...every vote is important.

    October 1, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  13. Vanessa

    North Carolina. Obama now leads. North Carolina should shift to Toss-Up

    October 1, 2008 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  14. Nakins

    Thats just what we expect up Obama

    October 1, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  15. Ex-Republican for Obama

    Say it loud, say it proud! Hope feels GOOD!!!

    It ain't over til the fat lady sings, let's get Palin some food...I want her to sing it for all of us!!

    October 1, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  16. Farrell, Houston, Tx


    October 1, 2008 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  17. Griff

    The Obama, Drama! The Black-Man's controle of a Super-Power... You will have to live with this, Pure-Stupidity. Remember I warned you!!! Adolf Hitler,had nothing on this Illusion.. You are so nieve CNN..
    So Stuck in your own Glory!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  18. ANGY

    go obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 we need you. Biden and you are really great honest people we need to wash off GOP and get our country back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! stop the racist comments on cnn too and think smart race doesnt matter anymore we need to solve problems and stop pointing fingers!!!!!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  19. John, Austin, TX

    Me so happy!

    Hey Republicans... 😛

    October 1, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  20. Silence Dogood

    The winner is clear when the game is rigged.

    Tired of being told what to do by the corporate two party system?

    Vote Green Party. At least educate yourself and read the web site.
    gp dot org

    October 1, 2008 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  21. Dr. Proctor, PHD

    Even if Senator Obama loses(not likely), I will not blame it on race,
    because I am so proud of the way that whites and blacks and all races
    have rallied for the good of the country. I have not seen this type of
    unity in all of my years. And it feels good. I am so proud of Americans of this generation. Let's make this a reality by actually voting in record numbers. God bless Senator Obama and the country.

    Yes We Can!!!! Democrats 08.

    October 1, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  22. Jenny

    Media likes spin!!!

    CNN never tells us the truth!

    October 1, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  23. bobbi

    obama has intergrity, he's what our country needs.

    October 1, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  24. Pol

    The weak and shameful republican ticket shows a level of degradation of this party. Desperate and disgusting attemts to save election (including ads and Sara Pailin choice) do not help. The game is over as in the Clinton's case but media needs to present the race close to keep our interest. Be prepare for a new Preesident of the United States – Barack Obama.

    October 1, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  25. Triggidy

    Let's do the right thing Missouri. Shake off these Republicans for the Show-Me State!

    October 1, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
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