October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
13 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. the other jd

    Only one electoral map will matter...the one showing at the end of the day on 11/4.

    Obama and Biden supporters! Regardless of these numbers or how Sarah P does at the debate, call up your local Barack Obama office and get involved. If you can afford it go to his website and give money to the campaign.

    Let's get 'er done!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  2. Sarah.....and my last name isn't Palin!

    You need to move Colorado into lean Obama and Indiana and North Carolina into Toss up.

    October 1, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  3. Greg

    Good news, but be careful. 34 days is a long time in politics to make a mistake.

    October 1, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  4. Maggie

    I wish they'd get rid of the electoral college. The reasons it was created don't exist anymore, and we should elect a president based on the popular vote. I really don't care which states' electors is going for whom. I want a popular voted-in president.

    October 1, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  5. FreeNLovIt

    McCain will serve the few, the proud, the LOBBYISTS. He's sworn his allegiance to the top 1%.

    When someone cant preach to your needs, they'll never be able to reach out to policies that will help you.

    Again, an ELEPHANT is an elephant. He'll want his PEANUTS and ocean of water to bathe in, with his friends.

    It's time for a DONKEY..

    October 1, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  6. Tom in CA

    The American voter sees Palin for what she is! A 'Post Turtle'.

    I suspect that most of you don't know what a "Post Turtle" is, so I'll help you out....When you're driving down a country road you come across a fence post with a turtle balanced on top, that's a 'Post Turtle'.

    Come on...you know she didn't get up there by herself, she don't belong up there, she don't know what to do while she's up there, and you just wonder what kind of dummy put her up there to begin with.

    October 1, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  7. Hope

    I hope and pray that WE demoncratics get in office. Oh heavenly Father, I'm praying that you see that the best person for the job wins which is Obama

    October 1, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |


    October 1, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  9. alvino

    Are people realizing that John "Fundamentals are Strong" McCain is just 4 more years of Bush Economics? At any rate, Johnny Mack is going to get even nastier in the next 5 weeks.

    October 1, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  10. tulsa


    October 1, 2008 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  11. Kate

    Yes we can, yes we are, and yes we WILL!

    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  12. Constance

    There is no way I can vote for a Palin/McCain ticket. Sorry. I'm not buying the bull

    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  13. N.S of Huntsville, Al

    I don't like polls, and don't want Obama or the campaign camp to get relaxed. Just keep registering new voters the more the better.


    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  14. Truly American

    Higher Taxes-Obama
    No experience- Obama
    Far Left Liberal-Obama
    Big Government- less in my pocket- Obama

    I don't know what you people are thinking.

    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  15. Christine El Paso

    States that were solid red this morning are only leaning in McCains favor now. It dosn't look good for McCain camp with only 34 more days left. Anything can happen I guess but us Obama supporters have been mobilized for months!

    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  16. Veteran for Obama

    Seems like gambling McCain is craping out!!!! Yes we can.

    Obama/Biden 08!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  17. ling

    these polls are lies. remember in new hampshire when hillary was 20
    points down and she still WON.

    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  18. TAYO, NY

    We shall see.

    American are beginning to show good understnading.


    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  19. Backstreets

    The only REAL poll, at least counts, is on November 4th!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  20. HyperD

    Great news... The trend should keep growing!

    October 1, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  21. north of 49

    Yes we can!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  22. alvino

    McCain is clueless and risky on economic issues.

    October 1, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  23. ANGIE


    October 1, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  24. gl

    Thank God, but lets keep our focus up until this election is over. We all know that McSane is going to pull some crazy trick. What scares me is that we don't know what nutting thing McSane will put out of this rabbit hat next.

    October 1, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  25. Bob Indianapolis IN

    November 4th will mark the Death of Fascism in America!

    October 1, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
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