October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
13 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. Shari, NY

    Pocholo: The same could be said about Obama supporters. By the way, this "Country First" slogan is a slap in the face to those countries who Bush coerced into joining in the illegal war, thus losing their own sons of the soil. God first!

    October 1, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  2. Margi

    There will dancing in the streets on election day!

    Ohio for Obama/Biden 08'

    October 1, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  3. Joe Regis

    McCain has suspended his compaign. Now that he is going down in a hand basket, should he end it?

    I think the suspension was a ploy on the part of McCain people to catch the Obama team offguard or to lull them into believing that his compaign is not up to the challenge and then go hard on the attack .

    I hope the Obama team will not fall for that trick and will keep pounding until a landslide victory. No more repubs this year.

    Obama/Biden 08/12.

    October 1, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  4. Brando

    It doesn’t matter. Barack ain’t gettin’ 270 EV come Nov. It’s all about the Electoral College, stupid. Leave it to the democrats to snatch defeat! from the jaws of victory! for the third time in a row. (00', 04', 08'). When will they (finally) learn? Hopefully by 2012. You got 4 yrs, DNC. You’ve! been! warned!.

    October 1, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  5. Farrell, Houston, Tx

    McCain is selling one his 13 bedroom mansion and that will "only" leave him with a measley 7 homes.

    October 1, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  6. Kasparov

    After November, people will have a new definition for the Bradley effect, they will call it the Obama effect. He needs to be up by 10 points to come out even.

    October 1, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  7. As the 'Paign Turns

    Nightingale – I don't have much opinion on Michelle Obama, but have you looked at Cindy McCain? Rich, jets, outrageously extravagant clothes, a former drug addict, stole from her charity, looks like she's suffering from anorexia, and now is apparently auctioning off the family estate – the 13 bedroom family estate. Why are they selling the house? Trying to reduce the number from 8 to 7? The estate could count as about 6 average homes in the US....

    Check CNN Videos to see the McCain compound that's up for auction...

    October 1, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  8. Dutch-VA

    The map is starting to look promising for dems.

    October 1, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  9. Phil- texas

    It looks like the people are finally seeing the election for what it really is. The old stay the course to doom or the make changes now and watch the ship be righted.

    October 1, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  10. Linda

    Waiting for McCain's next dramatic move. He seems to respond to polls in interesting and novel ways.

    Nonetheless...thrilled to see the map colors turn to Obama's advantage!

    October 1, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  11. gl

    The Nightingale Sings in Berkley Square – No you right wing nuts are the recking ones and the American people said an enough if enough. No way Palin, No way Mcsame.

    October 1, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  12. Matt

    Better step up the efforts to rig those voting machines in inner city and minority communities Republicans...

    October 1, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  13. Never Barak Obama (PUMA)

    For CNN voters not middle America!

    October 1, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  14. White and Black support for Obama

    Polls doesn't mean anything if they do not include younger people. ONe day up one day down. who cares... gimmi a break.. go vote first be4 u celebrate..
    yahoo... let's watch debate... who care about polls..I care about votes.

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  15. Jann in Denver

    The light at the end of the tunnel is in sight . Its been a long hard battle against smear tactics, lies, insinuation and innuindo, thinly vailed racial attacks and outright incompetence.

    Obama will win in November despite the attempts by the Republican Right and Dems in our own party to snuff him out of this race!

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  16. KJL

    Looks like I'm not the only one who is skeptical about McCain and his silly side-kick.

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  17. AB

    It will be interesting to see if any of the polls will ever show a landslide for Obama.

    I mean, if they showed a landslide the election isn't as interesting so they lose viewers. Less viewers means less advertising revenue.

    It pays to show things close as long as possible!

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  18. Shari, NY

    Addendum to previous post: Ditto to the one who is warning against complacency in the Obama camp. Beware of thieves in the night and fouled up voting machines!

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  19. John Smith

    God always chooses WISE or Intelliegent leaders, not experienced and hardened leaders!!!! Just read up on King Solomon...

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  20. Kim, Charlotte, NC

    Please get out and vote!

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  21. Ohio Women 4 Obama

    Thank you America. Ohio will also go Obama. McCain and Palin will be another 4 more years of Bush. McCain is starting to look like an angry man, his temperment is very bad.

    Obama / Biden '08

    October 1, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  22. no fear

    one can hope and I do have the audacity to hope–and not just for myself.

    October 1, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  23. Sean

    McCain has totally imploded he took solid leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Missori and is now losing in all of them. In Ohio and Florida he took a 3-6 point lead and is now losing by 8 points. He has no idea what he's doing politically he needs to get back on the campaign trail instead of waiting around hoping for something bad to happen to Obama.

    October 1, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  24. mike

    Obama's new favorite song – Fleetwood Mac's "LANDSLIDE"

    Hey Nightingale – McCain is going to make sure you get your tax cut?? Which Fortune 500 company are you CEO? I'm gonna go ahead and guess you make LESS than 250K a year and will receive a tax cut if you vote for the other guy....


    OBAMA/BIDEN 2008 – 2016

    October 1, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  25. Tony

    THE REPUBLICAN DICTATORSHIP IS OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    October 1, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
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