October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
13 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. Dr. Proctor, PHD

    Sarah Palin is a threat to the national security of our country. The fact that McCain chose her is a direct affront to his judgment on national security.
    Being a POW is evident of judgment gone wrong allowing him to be
    captured. If he is thinking of "country first", Palin is not qualified.

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  2. Deb, Allentown,PA

    We can't let down now. I'm pretty sure there's an Operation Chaos initiative to respond positively for Obama, even if you're a McCain supporter. Trying to lull the Obama supporters into a sense of complacency so they won't feel the need to work so hard. Don't fall for it!!

    Work hard, talk to people, volunteer for the campaign and VOTE!

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  3. sansar820


    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  4. The American Dream is Alive and Well

    That's our man! I don't even think CNN's electoral map is representative of what is going on in America – its a little bit behind.

    The results of November 4th may be a surprise to some, disappointing to others. But to millions – this is what we've been waiting for. Obama will be the leader of the free world for at least the next four years – and he is going to win by a landslide. Obama has more supporters in America than the media can keep up with.

    Obama/Biden '08 – you should still tell your friends, but they already know 🙂

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  5. and then...

    Just Ohio away, weeeee

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  6. And the Truth is...

    Like I'm going to really believe anything CNN puts out. The only numbers that count are on Nov. 4.

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  7. Nobama!

    It's very far from Election Day. This really doesn't mean anything. I believe Gore and Kerry were up in the polls at this point too... and it can't really get any worse for McCain right now, so don't count your chickens Obamaphiles 🙂

    McCain/Palin '08
    HILLARY 2012!

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  8. Mike - Oregon

    Who in the world would vote for a woman as VP that names her two boys "Track" and "Trig" ??? What, were they named after sled dogs or something? Palin is one weird chick ....

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  9. Teddy California

    I am surprised that Obama has not pulled away in the current environment. In the past two and half weeks, the news was almost exclusively on the financial crisis. The party in the white house of course would be punished because of this. However, Obama still has not closed the sale. Actually. the trend toward Obama has stopped or even reversed in the recent days. ABC/Washington Post poll gave Obama advantage of 4% down from 9% and Gallup tracking poll gave Obama advantage of 4% down from 8 or 9%.

    If Obama lost the election, you would blame his cautious approach. Obama could deliver the knock down punch during the debate. John McCain went to the debate with a big chain on his neck. Jim asked the question about the financial crisis. Obama did score points on the question. But he should have seized the opportunity to give McCain a fatal blow. McCain successfully shifted the debate to spending and earmarks and Obama egaged McCain on those topics.

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  10. Dennis Cooney

    The house for sale is one of the McCain's former homes. Sold to another person a few years ago and now being re-sold again.

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  11. Joseph Adewole

    Americans, at last are sincerely and honestly seeing the TRUTH.

    October 1, 2008 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  12. pat C.

    thank god the country is pulling together for the change we must have to heal us from bush.
    mcain is an angry old man that makes such bad judgements and palin was the final nail in his coffin. i am so glad this is backfiring on the republicans. they look at us average peoplea as if we are not smart enough to make change happen. well i for one and being white and middle aged am grateful for all that are coming on board and supporting barack obama.

    October 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  13. Anonymous

    Suggested headline: McCain Circling the Drain

    October 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  14. Gia in Los Angeles, CA

    YES WE CAN!! Looking good!!

    Obama/Biden '08

    October 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  15. Shawn - GA

    Kerry was up, Gore was up..... who cares about polls?

    October 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  16. Dj

    Has any ticket ever won EVERY state? I ask because after tomorrow's VP debate, we might very well see the entire country lean heavily toward Obama-Biden....

    October 1, 2008 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  17. Rick

    Wait until people find out how deeply involved Obama has been in this financial mess, along with many other democrats(Carter, Clinton, Frank, Dodd, etc., etc.)

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  18. drew

    the election is still more than a month away. it was less than a month ago that mccain had a 6-point edge on obama. a lot can happen.
    besides, i think these polls are really innaccurate.
    i find it funny how whenever the politcal ticker posts good news for obama, there's an influx of posts that just say "OBAMA O8!!! OMG HES SO GOING 2 KICK JON MCCAINS BUT!!!"
    who are the 12 year olds posting on CNN's political blog?

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  19. Chris - MD

    I expect more shift in electoral map towards Obama. Enough of same old eight years, this is the begining of a new dawn. Vote Obama, vote a new begining, vote a change you desire in washington.
    Vote now and vote for Obama/Bidden ticket.

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  20. AMGC

    republicans, you've had your chance, you've had your 8 years. now give the dems a chance. it's about time we feel like SOMETHING is going in our direction.

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  21. October Surprise

    Oh yeah, it's October, I wouldn't be surprised if Bush was keeping Osama Bin Laden in the basement of the White House. The GOP will bring out all the stops to win.

    However, I will be strong, and I will VOTE for Barack Obama and Joe Biden in November.

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  22. Sarah

    Because of eonomy crisis, Obama will win. But you never know. America has not overcome racism and sexism yet.

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  23. Republican Mom for Obama

    God Bless America! Yes, we really CAN!

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  24. innerwellth

    Truly American – I totally agree with you! I cannot believe Americans are falling for Obama! He's a TALKER NOT A DOER!! Look at his record, there is absolutely NOTHING on it! No experience! He's never run a business, a city or a state!! You're going to entrust our nation into his hands? You're falling for the "used car salesman" that's all I can say. I really thought Americans were smarter than that!!

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  25. Rena

    To Nightingale in Berkley Square –

    You can stop singing Obama is 10 points ahead on Mckiller in Ohio; so toss up is totally out of the equation. Little do you fools know that you need this man right. The blind leading the blind. McKiller wants your money just like he taking Ms. Mckiller money.

    And to Pocholo – Stop being a racist and just come out of hiding and say what you feel. I mean really be an adult; I stopped playing hide and go seek and these silly games in elementary. How in the world can you guys trust a man whose telling you in your face he is going to take your money and cause many to suffer by giving you the same policies as Bush? Really do you guys care anything about our soldiers and their families? You people are not only sick but heartless and selfish.

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
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