October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
13 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. Joe PA

    The only time I will care about this map is on Nov 4th

    Obama/Biden '08

    October 1, 2008 04:29 pm at 4:29 pm |
  2. Donna

    For the "nightingale"–I had the honor of being at an event recently at which Michele Obama spoke. She had had several other events and I would have been dead tired.

    She spoke for 45 minutes, without a note. People made comments to her while she spoke and she wove them into what she was saying. It was the opposite of a "soundbite" or canned speech.

    Mrs. Obama was charming, warm, genuine, funny, and stunningly bright. She is also exceedingly beautiful. I would say it was one of the most moving and impressive presentations I have ever seen.

    I feel sorry for your inability to see a genuinely remarkable and admirable person.

    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  3. Eric-29-m-PA

    Wake up people before it's too late. You don't understand what harm Obama could do to this country. McCain is far from perfect, but his better than the alternative. Take it from a fellow Democrat who voted for Casey in 06, Kerry in 04 and Gore in 2000.

    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  4. Casey

    It is great to see Barack Obama and Joe Biden pulling away. Lets just hope the election is not stolen from them by voter fraud in the swing states or the electoral college. I do not want to see a repeat of 2000, with an "appointed" president. The electoral college better vote with the will of the people.

    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  5. FRANK






    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  6. MLG

    I don't trust polls for many reasons. I believe Obama has been up by 6-10% the entire time.

    I am 39 and know of only a hand full of friends and family with land line phones.

    The republican posters here will probably say that you are biased for reporting that Obama is ahead, but then again, they whine about everything that isn't spun their way. Funny how I didn't see any negative comments from them when you kept reporting that McCain was ahead.

    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  7. Latina for Obama (nj)

    oh happy day...oh happy day...

    YES WE CAN!!!!!


    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  8. Aaron Anson

    Didn't John McCain withdraw from a debate with George Bush when his poll numbers were sliding preciptiously? he seems to make a habit of running when the going gets tough.

    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  9. Rodger

    All 8 "toss-up" states will vote for Obama. He will also win in three or four states now leaning for McCain, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia and West Virginia. Obama will get 400 electoral votes and win by 15-20 of the popular vote. Thank it to the bank!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  10. Barney

    Voting early in NC for Obama – get paper records.... same as absentee

    October 1, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  11. John Air Force Vet

    And this is why the McNipulator camp is trying to cast doubt on the VP debate moderator. More of their 11th hour politics. They have know of Ifle's book for months (which is not a biography of Obama and even is about Republican Colin Powel as well as other socio-political African American leaders) This is an attemp to McNipulate voters to think Palin will be treated unfairly. Brokaw is a McCain supporter who has come under scrutiny for media bias toward McCain and he will be a debate moderator for an upcoming Pres. debate. Do you hear Obama's camp complaining? So do we only trust white male moderators to be fair ? This is more protect Palin boloni. It is also sexist and racial predudice to asume an African American women is less capable to fairly moderate than a white male. Google "Brokaw McCain supporter" and see what YOU think.

    October 1, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  12. Nick

    I love when Obama wins. I feel like a winner too!!

    October 1, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  13. david

    Brando, Man you are stuck on stupid huh?

    You're a leghend in your own mind!

    October 1, 2008 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  14. Diing

    It is a realy good news for America. Without strong economy, it will be hard to fight two wars much less supporting our allies. Republicans ought to put the country first by electing Senator Obama. It simple as that. Strong Economy= Power in terms of strong military, influence, and several others. Ask the Soviets!. A well inform Republican should consider voting for the democratic ticket for the sack of this nation.

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  15. Dave

    I wonder why won't you guys change Winsconsin and New Hampshire to leaning Obama. He's been leading in both states for weeks accordig to yourown election tracker map.

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  16. Darryl



    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  17. Don't ya just love to see....

    .........all those red states changing colors for the fall?

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  18. Jude Jeffers in FL

    All of the people who are saying Palin should drop out are Conservatives, not Dems, believe me, we would rather have her stay in.

    The people who need to see what Palin is really like, will never see the Kuoric interview. They will remain comfortably numb in their bubble.

    I know lots of good smart, nice women, who are educated and nice to look at, but that doesn't mean that they should be Vice President.

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  19. Charlotte

    Means nothing until Nov. 4th.

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  20. Jon H.

    I'm from Minnesota and I don't understand these polls!!!! Each time a new poll comes out, it goes from a 10+ point Obama lead to a dead heat. This has happened at least 4 times now. I think these pollsters need to take a better look at their methods.

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  21. John in Ohio

    Obama wins with the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. Those states give him 273 EV

    Even throughout the Republican convention bounce he hung on to that 273 EV projection.

    Now we have Indiana being somewhat competitive, Ohio and Florida and Nevada are still very tight but Obama is improving rather then falling there, and Obama is actually leading in Virginia and North Carolina. Real Clear Politics, which has been trending conservative in its estimates this election, have Obama getting a solid 301 EV, and other sites project even more.

    It's morning in America.

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  22. Vegas Barbie for Obama

    YES WE CAN! I'll be one of those dancing in the streets on Nov. 5!

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  23. Mel

    Polls don't vote, but if you put stock in them the only relevant ones are the ones the day before the election. We have 33 days to go. Do you leave the stadium and declare your team has won just because it's up by a few points in the third quarter?

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  24. Baroney

    America is slowly realizing that McCain is all about smash and grab, roughouse hardball politics. He's just another old school politics who is willing to overlook smears and lies to win.

    America is tired of that junk & here is your proof. Obama will be our 44th president and we can be proud of that.

    October 1, 2008 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |

    Price for ticket to Vice President debate party at theater - $0

    Price for Obama yard sign - $8

    Watching Sarah Palin loose every shred of human dignity in front of 80 million people - PRICELESS!

    October 1, 2008 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
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