October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
13 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. Chuck

    Probably helps that 95 Democrats helped fail the bailout bill just to keep Obama gaining in the polls.

    October 1, 2008 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  2. joe

    Mccain busy rescuing Palin. Obama busy working up the white house to Rescue America from economic crisis!!

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  3. Sharon Kitchen

    Go Obama / Biden.......Time for the mind change.

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  4. lou

    Beware all!!!!! It's time for an October surprise.... Maybe Bin Laden? who knows?? I don't trust those Republican Hypocrites.....The debate should spawn plenty of SNL comedy...

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  5. Phantom of the Oprah

    Obama was pre-selected as democratic nominee- can not set the bar any lower than that.

    Hillary took the bullets during the debates- Obama just agreed with her when possible or evaded the question altogether.

    No one has ever tried to humiliate or entrap or stump Obama.

    The spin has always been in his favor.

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  6. DR

    What John King isn't saying is that Obama are up in the poll by 8-10 points in VA, NC, OH, PA, CO and FL. So those state are really blue. These polls can be so conflicting or bias to John King's candidate McCain.

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  7. Gebeorge Napalotino

    It is not amazing that the McCain campaign is now whining about Gwen Ifill - just because she has a forthcoming book which covers Obama. His campaign is getting exposed for what it is and is fast losing ground in key states. So, he has to do any thing and every thing to change the headlines. A black reporter is not capable of maintaining professionalism - even one of Ifill's stature.

    I hope the American people are seeing through this maneuvers - maneuvers designed to hoodwink the American electorate. No more 2000! No more 2004! Truth is going to prevail this time around.

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  8. America will be free again

    Even McCain couldnt believe he went through this path of lies, smears and dishonorable campaign. I was online last night and watched the view again. i saw Bab asked mccain..."what happened to you"? this is not the McCain of 2004..that is completely true. I am an african american looking to see good campaign this yr. Untill the smears started and McCain was quoted saying he did the smears cos Obama wont agree to do 10 town hall meetings!!! I was so sad for a man who i used to hold so high allowed himself to be dragged down like a little child. It prompt me to ask same question...WHERE IS THE MCCAIN OF 2004?

    I guess gone like Titanic...

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  9. Sharon Kitchen

    Go Obama/Biden '08 .......Time for the change

    October 1, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  10. gene

    I have to say that after all the smearing.. all the conservative talk shows trying to kill his campaign, after all the blogs trying to destroy him... Obama just stays cool, calm, collective, organized, and unlike McCain, has no problem looking his opponent in the eye.

    You repub conservative far right whackos can say what you like.. but in the end... you have to admit that throughout all this adversity, Obama is one tough sob... and I'll be looking forward to having someone of his character and intelligence in the white house. It'll be a great change from the pandering, vacationing, below average IQ leadership we've had in the last 8 years.

    October 1, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  11. John

    Hey CNN – you only post the pro obama messages?

    October 1, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  12. Linda31

    Oh wow, does anyone notice how many light red states there are now. LA, GA, AR, NC. Those use to be solid red. 🙂 Looks like there might be more toss up states in the next couple of weeks.

    I need a President that can be cool and calm under fire and crisis. That's leadership.

    October 1, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  13. Dan

    It should be a bigger gap than that! If Obama wasn't black he would be ahead by 30 points. It's all those hateful folks down in the southern states with way too many electoral votes. Give me a break you McCain bloggers, are you really that impressed by McCain and is short temper. A self admitted no nothing about the economy man. Or is the very sharp Palin that get's you, the one that cannot hold interviews because she knows nothing! Even the agreement on the debate had to be prescript questions so they can coach her. She can't even name one single supreme court case. And just think, this pin head could be our President.

    October 1, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  14. New Voter for Obama

    Ok so Obama's ahead big deal if we all don't go out and vote on Nov 4th the polls are for nothing. Please Obama supporters on Nov 4th.
    GO OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  15. tatanka

    It looks like the paleface has had his run of luck and finally the white buffalo will have it's day. Come on Obama lets go all the way.

    October 1, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  16. sam

    finally americans are starting to realize that mcain and sarah palin are unfit to rule the country. Palin has no experience whatsoever and McCain is just 8 more years of bush

    October 1, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  17. Lloyd Rogers

    Isn't it amazing how many of those who vote do so on emotions not facts! Follow the money trail of the banks and loan programs which failed and you will see why the Senate wants the whole thing reolved quickly without a real explanation! If you want a government which is socialist and with out individual freedoms, then you know who to vote for!

    October 1, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  18. danel

    It is his unpredictable, belligerent and jump first before thinking that got his campaign to go south. His campaign was never suspended, he just said it but never follow.

    October 1, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  19. v.ananthan

    I see some people are saying that Obama is like a " saviour" .


    October 1, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  20. SB in NoVA

    We need to keep this going in the right direction! Spread the word ... get involved ... donate if you can!!!!

    Turn VA BLUE!
    Obama/Biden 08 and beyond!!!!!!!!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  21. Vincent, Great Lakes, Illinois

    innerwellth October 1st, 2008 4:29 pm ET

    Truly American – I totally agree with you! I cannot believe Americans are falling for Obama! He's a TALKER NOT A DOER!! Look at his record, there is absolutely NOTHING on it! No experience! He's never run a business, a city or a state!! You're going to entrust our nation into his hands? You're falling for the "used car salesman" that's all I can say. I really thought Americans were smarter than that!!

    Are you sure you are not writting about McCain here???

    October 1, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  22. irony

    it is Change We Need. We can't afford four more years.

    October 1, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  23. Boomer

    Obama must be winning. The right wingers are getting nastier and nastier. I hear panic in their voices. How some people can fall for the same old lies over and over again is beyond me. "The Nightingale" is a real piece of work with his/her comment on Obama's wife. I guess all women are supposed to be yahoos like pathetic Palin, the wolf and polar bear killer.

    October 1, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  24. Ben

    Obama better for America by Americans!!!

    October 1, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  25. IS Obama Palin in comparison?

    Come on CNN- no posts all week

    Both young
    Both gifted
    Both "minorities"
    Both untested.
    Both deliver a prepared speech really well.
    One has NO experience, the other has little experience.
    One party adores their do-nothing candidate the other is proud of their know-nothing candidate.

    For the first time in my adult life I am REALLY proud to be an American.

    October 1, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
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