October 1st, 2008
04:14 PM ET
13 years ago

Electoral Map Update: Swing state trends in Obama's direction

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/10/01/art.ecmap.10.01.gif caption="Obama gains ground in CNN’s latest electoral map update."](CNN) - Barack Obama’s fresh edge in new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls released Wednesday are resulting in gains on the CNN Electoral Map. Minnesota, and its 10 electoral votes, from toss up to lean Obama. Missouri, with 11 electoral votes up for grabs, is shifting from lean McCain to toss up. With those moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states that total 250 electoral votes and John McCain states totaling 189 electoral votes, with 99 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Obama has a 61 electoral vote advantage over McCain, up from a 40 point lead the previous CNN Electoral Map.

Watch: John Roberts and John King on the battlegrounds

In Minnesota, where the Republican convention was held a month ago, 54 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, and 43 percent support McCain — a major jump over the 2 point advantage Obama held over McCain in last month’s poll.

And the Illinois senator appears to erased McCain’s edge in Missouri — site of Thursday’s VP debate - where 49 percent of those polled are backing Obama and 48 percent supporting McCain. One month ago, Obama was down 5 points to McCain in the last poll. The only other new poll in Missouri, a Research 2000 survey, indicates McCain ahead by one point.

Check out CNN's latest electoral map

“At this point, the state polls are starting to reflect the same movement we’ve seen in the national polls over the last couple of weeks,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama has been on an upward swing ever since the meltdown on Wall Street. The economic crisis is reinforcing the country’s desire for change, which is in turn helping the Democrats. If the current trends hold and McCain loses traditional red states like Florida and Virginia, it is hard to see how he can get to 270 electoral votes on Election Day.”

The CNN Electoral Map takes into account a number of factors, including the most recent state polls, voting trends, and campaign ad spending and events in the particular states.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted September 28-30, with 940 registered voters and 770 likely votes in Florida, 929 registered voters and 849 likely voters in Minnesota, 951 registered voters and 744 likely voters in Missouri, 924 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Nevada, and 925 registered voters and 684 likely voters in Virginia all questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Minnesota and Missouri, and 4 percentage points in Nevada and Virginia.

soundoff (229 Responses)
  1. sam

    a vote for nader or green party or any third party is a wasted vote. there is no way they will win.
    Vote Obama BIden 08/12

    October 1, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  2. democrat

    Obama is a joke.....He has not a clue on politics. He said the other day when the stock market fell oh if you need me just call. He has no experience on politics and shows it everyday. I think the democratic party should not have pushed him like they did because now we don't have a democrat running that knows what day it is....DuH!

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  3. disgruntled voter

    Obama would have never become the Democratic nominee if not for voter fraud. Are we going to stand by and let him steal the White House or do we demand that our leaders closely safeguard the polls and eliminate voter fraud. SPEAK UP people! Hold your elected officials accountable! Watch, listen, be vigilent and call your Election officials to make sure this election is on the up and up. Most importantly, watch for buses and suspicious activity on election day and REPORT IT! Visit caucusanaylsis dot org for examples of how Obama is stealing this election!

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  4. Romney 2012

    McCain made a huge mistake picking Palin over Romney, and the Republican party made a huge mistake picking McCain over Romney. I think I will sit this election out or maybe vote Bob Barr.
    ROMNEY 2012 ROMNEY 2012 ROMNEY 2012 ROMNEY 2012

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  5. John in Ohio

    Take a look at realclearpolitics election tracker. 325 Obama, 183 McCain.

    Obama supporters: there's really no point arguing with the McCain supporters and the faux democrats. It's like trying to win an argument with a brick wall. Just let them spew their childish hate, and enjoy their whining and ranting when Obama wins.

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  6. USAF Staff Sergeant

    "Truly American",

    You sound just like a McCain ad. Perhaps you should look into both candidates policies before you go running your mouth just regurgitating the lies fed to you by the Repubs.

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  7. beevee

    This is all fine and good but this news should not lull them into thinking they are going to win the election. It is time for the campaign to press hard and keep the gains in their pocket and not throw them away with any major slip ups.

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  8. leapfrog

    I know this sounds rudimentary...but: the only way Obama is going to win this is if the Dems get out an vote. Traditionally, they don't. GOP voters tend to have high turnout, and Dems low...which is why, despite there being more registered Dems, the GOP tends to win the White House.

    So...GET OUT AN VOTE!!!! Don't come up with an excuse not to.

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  9. Lindy

    Hi Griff, If you're going to write the word naive, learn how to spell it first.
    Obama/Biden 08

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  10. Linda31

    Drew, maybe you should reevaluate that comment. If there are so many "pro-obama" posts, maybe you should starting think about the possiblity that YOU might be missing something.....

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  11. tulsa

    LOL.... POCHOLO...



    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  12. Eddie

    I hope all of you blacks out there remember one thing–the bradley effect, this is what is going to save john mccain because we do not need a racist like Obama and his wife!

    October 1, 2008 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  13. Andy

    I'll believe it when I see it. We've had polls like this in both of the previous elections, and neither ended as predicted. I want Obama to win for all kinds of reasons. Mostly because having someone less intelligent than the average American in the White House has proven you do actually need to know what you're doing in order to run the country.

    I just can't fathom where we'd be if we had another 4 years of incompetence running the country. One thing to remember is that regardless of who wins, the cost of the previous 8 years will affect both of their terms, and probably the next 4 after that. The price and sacrifice we'll have to pay to put all this right will make whoever leads the country next an extremely unpopular President.

    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  14. Rob

    Eric–you need to wake up . If we vote McCain and the idiot–we'll be the laughing stock of every country...He's an old man with an old point of view .He's out-dated in this world–if this was 1960 that would be something else.


    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  15. Outsider

    As a Canadian observing the US election, a couple of things struck me:

    1. Bush and the Republican party ran the USA into the ground: economy, Iraq war, civil liberties
    2. Despite that fact, it is still a close election

    Conclusion: 1. Americans are living on an other planet 2. Or, they have been brain washed (you figue out how) 2. Race – it is just hard for some folks to see a black man in the White House; 3. Keeping up appearances – me, myself, and I at the ballot box (a vote cannot lie).

    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  16. Evan

    Remember people to go out and vote, polls look great but what u don't want happening is people saying " wow look at that lead, I won't vote because everyone else will" Don't let that happen because then McCain will win.

    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  17. tomiwa

    Good!. A lot of work still to be done. Watch out for GOP's slimy tactics

    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  18. Glenn; North Carolina

    I'm glad to see my contributions are having a positive effect on the outcome. This post has motivated me to donate another $100.00 to the Obama movement. It tells me that If the people get behind something or someone, REAL change can be effected by the people for the people.

    God Bless America and Sen. Obama

    P.S. Joe Biden Too!

    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  19. James

    Come on Obama. With all of those states in your column, couldn't save a few for poor ole John?

    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  20. nelson

    We all better be sure and vote as I don't really trust any poll..
    pollsters are/can be a little short of being completely honest.
    Just like an account.. make the numbers what they want. I do
    see a big shift in Mi when it counts.. Looks like Obama/Biden
    are very strong among intelligent voters (dktm)

    October 1, 2008 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  21. Biden can't manage his finances

    How can Biden have less money saved up an less towards his retirement than I do?

    I make 1/10 of the wages he and his wife make- and even I am losing my retirement savings in the market collapse.

    Biden does not even donate to any charities.

    HOW can he be "poor"

    October 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  22. Women for Obama

    Let's not take anything for granted – call voters, register voters, work at the polls, etc. This will come down to voter turnout!

    October 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  23. Doug R.

    Wow...look at all those patriotic blue states!!
    WI, OH, FL, VA and hopefully CO will also be blue.

    October 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  24. Independent_me

    The people are finally looking beyond the traditional Republican mantras that appeal to the emotions instead of reason.

    Who in their right mind would want four more years of Republican incompetence and mismanagement???

    They took credit for Clinton's surplus after fighting him every step of the way, but when they had total control of both houses and the white house -look at what they produced!

    Only the most stupid and ignorant would stick with the Repugs after what they have done to this country...

    October 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
  25. Rezko loves Obama

    Obama is an admitted Socialist who does not share the values of American voters. The voters will pay him back in spades in November by sending him and Hair Plugs back to the Senate. Obama will ruin this economy by over taxing everyone. He will have a disasterous effect on the stock market if elected. Foreign dictators will test him and I'm sure he'll fail since he thinks he can snap his fingers, call a meeting with evil leaders and lead us to happiness. McCain's fiscal policies are needed at a time like this, don't strangle business and capital. If Obama truely had foresight he would have worked with McCain to regulate Freddie and Fannie over the past few years but Obama didn't care.

    McCain/Palin 2008. Obama and Bill Ayers can go light M-80s in the South Side of Chicago for all I care.

    October 1, 2008 04:43 pm at 4:43 pm |
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