October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
12 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Richard A. Spomer

    Looking at Obama I see a dishonest kid how wants things his way. He is unethical, crooked, with so many terrorists tie the media will not investigate, because money and corruption will win. $10.00 says the dumb fracker will get knocked off with in the first two of his term then were stuck with another frikin idiot!!!

    It the Dumb leading the Dumber Obama/Biden!!

    McCain/Palin 2008!!!

    McCain/Palin 2008!!!

    McCain/Palin 2008!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  2. Rabid mob

    It looks like the rabid Obama mob is gonna take this one. I can't wait to see what the People's Republic of America will look like under Obama-Reid-Pelosi!

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  3. poochie

    Go Barack!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  4. Obama/Biden08inJesus'Name

    Let's keep praying for Barack & Joe! GET OUT THERE AND VOTE! If you have a video camera, tape yourself voting. Repubs like to steal votes!

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  5. Frank

    As the clock ticks nearer to Nov. 04th, some Rep. are starting to realize that Obama is the right choice. I just don't know what took them so long.

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  6. D7618

    As I sit here and listen to my racist Republican bosses curse Obama, I don't get mad. I don't even defend Obama. Why? Because the actions are always louder than the words.
    Go Obama/Biden!

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  7. RealityKing

    CNN is no longer a reliable source of political news because its best political team does more reporting about its own polls than they do about the candidates. Whatever happened to investigative report??

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  8. Ron of Baltimore

    McCain's negative ads attacking Obama the person have really backfired. No one likes a guy who hides behind insults, a bully who is all words, made-up words at times.

    Go Obama. Restore our country's sights. I am a 59-yr old male, and am calling my friends in Denver, Boulder and Loveland again after dinner tonight!

    Go Obama-Biden 2008!

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  9. Former Hoosier

    I find it hard to believe that Indiana will swing for Obama. As a longtime (former) Hoosier, I'd be really really surprised. This is a state that GW won in a landslide 4 years ago and hasn't gone blue since 1936. I don't think the Dems should count on Indiana.

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  10. sandy

    Go Barack! That's our man. Everybody check out Grumpy's face. Keep on turning those red states blue.

    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |


    October 29, 2008 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  12. Jacob


    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  13. Cricket

    Obama supporters, just remember, polls are not votes!!! It is imperative that every registered voter show up-no excuses!!

    I voted yesterday. Anyone who can vote early, do so.

    As an old "granny" I'm counting on all you young people not to let us down. We "oldsters" may not have a lot of years ahead for us-but for you it's a lifetime. I want my grandson to have a bright future as well as all of you.

    Southern white granny for OBAMA/BIDEN


    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  14. Connie from Indiana

    Maddog57; I to am praying for a landslide for Obama , then the supreme court will not be able to steal this election, the repubs or one state making the decision for us all. VOTE EARLY INDIANA,VOTE OBAMA

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  15. Jim Ignatowski

    McCain will be lucky to win Arizona.

    And th think- I used to have respect for him in 2000. I hardly recognize him now

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  16. Jim Ignatowski

    McCain will be lucky to win Arizona.

    And to think- I used to have respect for him in 2000. I hardly recognize him now

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  17. Lee, Red Bluff, CA

    I have news for you all. McCain is going to win by the slimmest of margins. Obama continually over polls. Anyone remember that from the primary's. BTW – in Nevada early voting the youth vote is lower than it was in 2004. Someone may want to get the kids off the video games and Ipods and tell them to go vote.

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  18. Of course he is

    $750000000.00 can buy alot. I wish he redistribute some of that my way.

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  19. virginia

    Okay, but like you all say, it isn't over until it's over. And maybe Chi4obama, McCain's negative campaigning isn't winning over many people, but your Obama friends are certainly not helping matters with all of their name-calling.

    At one point, I was uncertain. However, I'd rather align myself with other voters who avoid using slurs and epithets in every post they make. If I read 'Caribou Barbie' or 'Dimwit' or 'Mc-Anything' one more time, I might just scream. So thank your fellow posters for pushing me back over to the 'rethuglican' side of the aisle.

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  20. Frank

    Next up – Nevada and Ohio!

    Look out folks, the Democratic wave is cresting.

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  21. McSame-aPALINing

    As an Arizona native who now lives in Denver, I would like to apologize to the rest of the nation for John McCain's unbelievably nasty, erratic campaign. It appears his behavior of late has begun to turn off even Arizona, which according to a new Arizona State University poll, is now too close to call for the presidential race.

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  22. blindsided

    Learn about this man Mr. Obama. Do NOT just go along with the promise of hope… I know we all need things to be better. Obama is not the answer he promises:

    From Audacity of Hope:
    "I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction."

    From Dreams of My Father:
    "I ceased to advertise my mother's race at the age of 12 or 13, when I began to suspect that by doing so I was ingratiating myself to whites."
    "I found a solace in nursing a pervasive sense of grievance and animosity against my mother's race."

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  23. Barbara - 65 yr old white female in NC

    Wish you all would update the Arizona polls. Friends there say it is dead heat. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  24. Helena

    Please God – let it be true. I'm praying every day for Barack Obama & Joe Biden to win this election and to keep them & their families safe from harm.

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  25. Dave in TX

    I don't get why business owners are talking about needing to fire people under Obama's plan!?!?!

    Under his plan, the consumers which you rely upon will actually have the money to spend on your good and service rather than needing to more picky with where and how thye spend your money. In actuality, if you run your business soundly, there should be MORE opportunity to sell your product and boost profits!

    I'm no economists but this just seems like common sense to me. You will need to fire more people (I say more because of where the unemployment rate is now) with the same tax policies because your customers will not have the means to pay for your product. Money in the consumers hand will lead to more money and more expansion opportunities than money in the company's hands.

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
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