October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Tolu

    I hear Arizona's no longer red, but now bright pink...that's gotta have the McCain camp blushing.
    DO IT, Arizona; the country will thank you for it!

    OBAMA '08

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |

    I gotta post another one... What has Obama done in office?

    He was in federal office 143 days before deciding to run for president... I didn't get to start my 401k that quickly.

    He has NEVER written a major law.

    He has not done anything besides sit in some chairs and read very well written speeeches....

    Heck, vote for me for president.. i'll promise change and lower taxes too.. i just don't "articulate" as well as Obama...

    Come on America... to be honest, both candidates are a joke, but at least pick the better of the two....

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  3. edd

    It seems the people of Colorado want to see someone with intelligence in the White House. Thanks Colorado!

    I read a comment about McCain that said: From hero to zero. I guess that's how many republicans are seeing him now...

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |

    Get out and vote for OBAMA!

    We deserve better than the slimeball campaign that McCain and his Diva have given us.

    Expect more and you'll get more

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  5. Sweetie

    Anyone who believes your Polls are as naive as Obama!

    October 29, 2008 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  6. Democrat 4 Life

    I'd like to see what strategy the GOP will pursue since the smear tactic doesn't work anymore. Oh i hope they vote Pale-in as their nominee and Biden resigned to have Hillary nominated as the VP. mmh.

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  7. Tapiwa Ngara

    From Jhb

    UNDECIDEDS – Make you voice heard and exercise the vote for those of us across across the world who can't!


    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  8. Pancho

    I think what is happening is that the voters who like to be with the winner are breaking for Obama. With luck, the floodgates will open and it will be a landslide.

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  9. Singh

    Obama's slogan: "spread the wealth" No one want to spread their wealth, but if the choice is between spreading a little bit of my wealth and not having any, I will gladly choose spreading it little bit.

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  10. kendal

    Please let this election be over soon. I swear if I hear one more pundit ask the question "Who Is Obama?" I will kick my television. The man has been campaigning for 2 years already lets get on with it.

    Barack/Joe '08

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  11. MIKE


    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  12. Reality check

    These comments sound like entranced worshippers at a evangelical revival.

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  13. Eddie, City of Angels

    On the road to victory, there are no rest stops-

    Let's run up the score and send our boy to the White House with a clear mandate!

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  14. amin


    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  15. East african king in AZ

    CNN keeps supressing my support for Obama

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  16. kido, WV

    My mission is accomplished. I am extremely satisfied because i voted for Obama and i am not a college grad. Well, i have common sense.

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  17. FL Battleground

    Way to go CO!! Working hard in FL – early voted for "That One!" Come on GA and NC! And look at AZ! McCain's own state is tired of him!! But don't give up yet...the Repubs will do ANYTHING to steal another election!!



    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  18. Mike

    So where is the race tightening? I hear this talk about the race is tightening. Where? Looks like Obama is pulling ahead. Is a landslide possible? Please vote! No over confidence. Omama 08

    October 29, 2008 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  19. Jasmine in Germany

    It's still a tight race, people have to get out and vote! Vote early if it is possible in your state! Vote for the guy who has over 80% world approval (that's the young, intelligent one who will bring dignity back to the White House).

    October 29, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  20. Michael

    I wish we had the ablity to vote early here in Missouri...can't wait any longer!

    OBAMA/BIDEN 08!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  21. CitizenAJ

    Feels like a "blue" Wednesday. Get out and vote everyone, encourage early voting! I wish I could but I will be in line early next Tuesday. Time for change, EIGHT IS ENOUGH! Senator Obama will bring needed change to the nation and the world. We need a real VP not a gimmick and definitely not a VP who thinks that there are "anti-American" pockets of America.

    October 29, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  22. Charlie in Maine

    My nephew just went back to Colorado so he could vote for Obama. I'll tell him the good news...

    That being said
    I am sure that McCain thinks the fundamentals of his campaign are sound. Problem is his campaign has been lying to us for so long that he is starting to believe his own BS.
    That being said the three keys to the race are 1. voter turnout, 2.voter turnout and 3. voter turnout. Despite everything W has done 28% of those surveyed still like him. If only half the people vote that 28% is equal to a McCain Landslide. If 60% vote than Obama squeaks by. If we can push turnout closer to 70% then it is Obama who gets the landslide. It is simple math. That is why we have to get every vote we can for Obama. And it is also why the Republicans are trying so hard to turn off the electorate with their negative attacks. The only way they win is if enough of us stay home. Don't let them do it.

    October 29, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  23. tulsa

    We the PEOPLE need to make this a LANDSLIDE.
    We need to utterly crush the failed policies and divisive politics of the Republican party.

    October 29, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  24. Margo - TEXAS

    Go Obama!!!

    Please, please everyone make sure you vote, its not over yet.

    October 29, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  25. Chi4Obama

    I still have a very pessimistic view about this election.
    Obama may win in the popular sense.

    But somehow, I feel that the Rethuglicans are working on another way to "steal" this election (ala '00 and '04).

    There have already been reports of early voting irregulaties in W. Virginia; whereby many people have been voting via Touchscreen for Obama. However, for some "odd" reason the votes still keep coming up in McCain's favor. Hmmm, I wonder why?.

    October 29, 2008 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
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