October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
12 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Dan

    This is good news for us Obama supporters, but the election still has a week left and anything can happen. We must keep pushing hard, fight for every vote, and push back against McCain's charges of income redistribution and not let this election slip away

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  2. Anthony

    Lets put the nail in the coffin this week.
    Leave nothing to chance.
    The polls are merely an indicator, but they are far from actual.
    Lets shut up all the Hannitys and O'Reillys of the world and send Tucker Bounds back to his moms house.

    Get out, and vote.

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |

    to Socialists!
    Love it! Grumpy gramps and Dimwit Diva... HAHAHAHAHA!

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  4. Maggie from Virginia

    My contact in Chicago is saying that people are waiting in line for two hours to vote early. They don't care about how large a lead Obama has in Illinois, they are making a statement. I'm so proud of my home town.

    October 29, 2008 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  5. Punish the incumbent party (Republicans)

    Has anyone noticed that the Republicans no longer proudly tout their title. They run with no party affiliation. Ex. Dole in NC, Hunnicutt in GA, McCain for President. The media needs to announce the party of each candidate as part of responsible reporting.

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  6. Tony_N_ATL

    wouldn't it be funny if McCain lost Arizona!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  7. Jay

    Just goes to show.....people are more interested in solving thier problems than creating new ones...go figure.Go-Bama

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  8. Chi4Obama

    I hope this means that we are that much closer to sending Grandpy McShame, and his corrupt Moose back to political obscurity.

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  9. spread the wealth

    cnn is jus like tne mccain campaign.always one step behind.other networks has done that weeks ago.always tryin to make it look good for mccain

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  10. vahe

    because people are not stupid they will see true colores of Mccain and e showed his true colores to Americans

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  11. Gayle

    Change of subject McCain seems to be losing ground in his home state. Now who would of thought he may have the possiblity of losing his home state. Now that would be funny.

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  12. Jonathan

    Help me turn Indiana Blue

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  13. Dean P Valencia Ca

    Please vote for Obama! This is the time for change. Let's turn the page on 8 yrs of Bush. It's time for a new America!

    Wait in line if you have to-make sure your vote is counted!

    Obama/Biden 08

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  14. jaye

    Do not trust the polls!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  15. Nelson Colorado Springs Co

    Hello America! A poll is a poll until the people vote. This is a question ask of people that likely to vote, a poll is a poll. Go Obama/Biden

    October 29, 2008 04:15 pm at 4:15 pm |
  16. ObamaVolunteer

    All Obama/Biden supporters continue to hope we win on November 4, 2008. This beautiful, wonderful Country deserves to be brought back to her superb level of dignity. America! America! I love this Country; so does Senator Obama and Senator Biden and all of our citizens!

    God bless America!

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  17. MaryG1959

    Cannot wait till November 5th when Palin goes back to Alaska and Grandpa McCain goes out shopping for a rocking chair!

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  18. Maggie Muggins From Selwyn

    Many other polls show Obama in the lead in Indiana by a good margin so I would question CNN's poll of polls on this point.

    McCain will be lucky to hold on to his own state let alone any other states.

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  19. Oliver

    How about that MCSAME, MCSENILE!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  20. jake747

    Definitely an entertaining election. Very interesting trends in the polls, Obama is slipping a bit in the national lead (most polls now showing around a 3-5% lead), but he's gaining in the battleground states at the same time. I guess it suggests McCain is building leads in already republican states and perhaps trimming Obama's lead in solid Obama states. It does suggest that the Obama camp is playing the electoral map very wisely. Though, if he slips anymore nationally, it's going to start impacting the battlegrounds too.

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  21. FED UP!

    As a Coloradoan, i'm pleasantly surprised!
    I voted for Obama, but there are still many catholic freaks here, who will vote for McCain no matter what.


    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  22. Brian

    McCain is the captain on a sinking ship, and Obama is the clear choice for positive change in America.

    Obama/Biden '08!!

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  23. Ez

    Good Job Obama and thank you for staying on message unlike senator McCain who is preaching divisive politics .

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  24. Bo

    Wow! The polls keep trending Obama's way. And all McCain can do is smear to the very end. Obama has run a text book campaign and totally schooled McCain. Without throwing dirt and calling names Obama has shared his vision and plan for OUR future, everyone, in this great country we all love. It's sad because I did have so much respect for McCain. But let's not be complacent. We still need everyone to get out to vote. To use a sports analogy – 40 minutes of hell- ie, lets keep the pressure on!!

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
  25. Frank Thomas

    That negative campaigning of the Republicans sure is working, huh?

    When do you think they'll get a clue?

    October 29, 2008 04:16 pm at 4:16 pm |
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