October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. No McCain/Palin

    Get out and Vote. We need to stop these lies and I would hate to see such LIARS win this election. Get your friends, get your family members, get your neighbours, get your community…we all know what a disgusting campaign McCain/Sarah is running but we can put a STOP to this by voting….

    Muslims, Chinese, Indians, African Americans, Caucasians, All US Citizens…get out and VOTE! Obama/Biden is the right choice. Let's get the momentum going, they need us and they need our full support.

    We are the United States of America, We are all part of gods great big family!

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  2. Sara

    Picking Sarah Palin as his VP was the best move ever, it just sealed the deal for us Democrats. I hope next week at this time I'm still celebrating Obama's victory.

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  3. Tracey

    It's time to turn all of those "red states", BLUE! We are a new generation and the old ideologies must be buried in the past and used as HISTORY! This is a new "American GENERATION"!

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |

    If you dont want to vote for obama because he is black then.................VOTE FOR THE WHITE HALF.


    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  5. BJ in NC

    I love it. He keeps surging on past the mud slingers. McCain and Palin keep throwing spaghetti without the sauce up against the wall. The result is that it does not stick. Not this time, not this year. Get out and vote.

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  6. Irma in North Carolina

    Sarah and John are you having a good day with your attack adds and your slezzy campaiging. Obama just gained some in the electoral college. And you and Sarah lost some more ground. God is performing his tasks well here.

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  7. Griff

    The Wonders of the Internet! So I listen to CNN, and read my own LocaL Paper, 8000 miles away..

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  8. Chicago Jew

    Yeah! I would have been voting in Colorado but I registered in IL instead... But Obama will still take CO!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  9. Jacquie

    McCarthyism is alive and well in the Republican Party – elect McCain or Dole and we will be watching who house we go to for a Christmas Cookie Party, could be a Communist subversive or worse a terrorists; two people I USED to respect have fallen from grace.

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  10. Chi4Obama

    Any bets that the GOP (and or Fox News), will attempt to resurect stories about Bill Ayers and Rev. Wright again before election day??? The "Fear card" is the only hand that the Republicans have left to play against Obama.

    They will use buzz words like "Dangerous", "Terrorist", and "unpatriotic" when making reference to Barack. Too bad that the Republicans haven't given the American people more credit for being smarter.

    The GOP is absolutely Pathetic.

    October 29, 2008 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  11. President Barack Obama

    Colorado is Turning blue like the beer can......

    Let's GO Colorado!!!

    Barack Your Vote08!!!! Intelligent Leadership!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  12. Jose

    Don't take polls for granted, make sure to get out the vote Nov. 4th.

    Obama/Biden 2008

    October 29, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  13. scarlett from FL

    Stood in line in FL for 3 hours on Saturday people were coming with chairs no one was moving so that was a good sign.

    October 29, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  14. Patrick


    October 29, 2008 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  15. Judy in Minnesota

    Finally, negativity in campaigns work against the candidate.

    Come on Sen Mccain, go out as the honorable man we thought you were.

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  16. Central FL (early voted)


    Taking our country back!
    Yes we can!

    God bless America!

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  17. Maddog57

    Yes! Let's vote now, I was just in Colorado, and I know they love Obama!!! I hope and pray he wins!!! I have voted in California and praying for a landslide for Obama....

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  18. -K&H-

    Yes Sir, VOTED early so I could have my vote count to move this state blue. Barack the VOTE 08.

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  19. West Virginia for Obama

    Remember everyone, vote! We want to win by a landslide. Go early and take friends and relatives with you. Make sure your vote is tallied correctly by carefully reviewing your ballot. Let's take this country back for the sake of our children's future.

    Obama/Biden 2008

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  20. Ann Marie Weeks

    I have never seen such bias in my life! I am making it my personal cause to form a nationwide boycott on you and all your media croonies. Whatever happened to fair and balanced coverage? That's okay- let's talk on the 5TH!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  21. Terri, Atlanta

    Bravo Barack – you SOOOOOO deserve this win!
    We love you!
    Don't forget to vote early everyone!!!
    I voted 2 weeks ago in Atlanta.

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  22. Madsal

    Get out and VOTE for Obama/Biden. This will stop all this negativity that the McCain/Palin campaign is spewing out with every breath.

    Let's shut them up be ELECTING Dems in "08

    October 29, 2008 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  23. katiec

    It proves the American voters are realizing who will be the
    survival of our country.
    And, they are sick of and digusted with the constant ongoing
    lies by Mccain/palin.
    The lies are bad enough but to spew hate, anger, fear and
    radicals at their rallies is the last straw.
    And, now the republicans are trying to suppress our votes.

    October 29, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  24. Janet, American Abroad

    This election year, is truly a historic voting year as Uniting this country for the better.

    And, as for Gov Palin, question, didn't you and your family want to divide from the rest of the country? Also, please give it a rest about someone who is working for the Foundation that supports McCain Campaign!


    October 29, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  25. j

    It shows the superiority of Obama's campaign strategy and, I can only hope, that people are rejecting McCain/Palin's smear/fear-mongering. Obama supporters, Please get out and VOTE!

    October 29, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
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