October 29th, 2008
06:55 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama surges in Colorado, makes gains on Electoral Map

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

CNN has changed Colorado to 'leaning Obama' and Indiana to a 'tossup.'

(CNN) - Does the road to the White House run through the Rocky Mountains? A new state poll in Colorado suggests that Barack Obama has doubled his lead over John McCain there, as the Democratic nominee claims more territory on CNN’s Electoral Map.

In a new survey — one of five new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation state polls released Wednesday - 53 percent of likely Colorado voters questioned say that Obama is their choice for president, with 45 percent backing McCain. That 8 point lead for Obama is double the 4 point advantage he held in our last poll, taken two weeks ago.

"Older voters in Colorado have started to break Obama's way." CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Two weeks ago he was losing the over-50 crowd by a couple of points. Now he has a five-point edge among them."

Election Center: Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN's move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama's estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Washington State is also being moved from lean Obama to safe Obama, though that move doesn't change the electoral count. The CNN Electoral College map is an estimate of what could occur if the election were held today. State polls, voting trends, campaign visits and advertising, are among the factors used in deciding the electoral college map.

Colorado is one of three western states that voted for George W. Bush four years where Obama now leads McCain. The others are Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats have been making major gains across the west at the state level the past two election cycles, and the party held its nominating convention in Denver this summer as part of a strategy to win over the region in the race for the White House.

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider says that Obama's widening lead in Colorado is being "propelled by an amazing 15-point Democratic lead in Colorado's fast-growing suburbs. The nation's economy has faltered, and so has Republican support, for nearly 30 years the cornerstone of the Reagan coalition."

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Wednesday also suggests that Obama is holding on to a strong lead in Virginia, with 53 percent of those questioned backing Obama and 44 percent supporting McCain. That 9 point lead is down from a 10 point lead Obama held in our last poll conducted in Virginia last week. No Democrat has won Virginia in a presidential contest since Lyndon Johnson carried the state in 1964.

Both McCain and Obama, campaigning in Florida Wednesday, are fighting hard to win the state's 27 electoral votes. The CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Obama holds a small 4 point edge there, 51 percent to 47 percent. George W. Bush carried Florida by 5 points as he won re-election as president in 2004.

Bush also won Georgia by 17 points over Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, in that election. But the CNN/Time/ORC poll suggests McCain holds a much smaller lead over Obama this time around. Fifty-two percent of likely Georgia voters are backing McCain, with 47 percent supporting Obama. That 5 point lead for McCain is down from an 8 point lead McCain held in our last poll, conducted two weeks ago.

And the CNN/Time/ORC poll indicates that Missouri, another state George Bush carried in 2004, is basically a dead heat. McCain holds a 2 point lead in the poll, 50 percent to 48 percent, well within in the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The poll was also expanded to include the major third party candidates, Independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. None of them are polling over 4 percent in any of the states surveyed, and none of them seem to be a factor in the outcome of the results in those five states other than Missouri, where Nader's 4 percent showing could have an impact.

But will he hurt either McCain or Obama?

"In most of the states we have polled in, the margin between Obama and McCain is the same in the two-way match-up as it is when we include the minor-party candidates," Holland said. "That indicates that Barr, Nader and McKinney together may be drawing equally from boththe Democratic and Republican candidates."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday, with 774 likely voters in Colorado, 747 likely voters in Florida, 690 likely voters in Georgia, 825 likely voter in Missouri, and 721 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (386 Responses)
  1. Justin from New Haven, CT

    PA should be marked as a Obama safe state, he is way ahead there.

    October 29, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  2. Chi4Obama

    Hey GOP,
    I'd say that "now" is probably the time that you should be unleashing your "October surprise".

    You know the supposed game changer in this election, that you said would scare away everyone from voting for Barack Obama.

    Give me a break.

    October 29, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  3. Peggy from IA

    Bravo Colorado. I even know people in rural Nebraska who voted Obama/Biden. Bless their hearts.

    Would begging help Virginia, Pennsylvania, No. Carolina, Georgia, etc. too? Please, please, please!!!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  4. Lost in Texas FOREVER

    don't worry McCain supporters, someway somehow "Joe the Plumber" will pop up and save the day in Colorado. This deal ain't sealed yet!

    October 29, 2008 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  5. Send McNasty Back to Arizona and the Diva Back to Alaska

    God Bless Colorado (Which in Spanish means redish or red-like)
    Looks like Colorado should change its name to "Azulandia" (Blue Land)


    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  6. Soccer mom from Manhattan

    In the immortal words of Howard Dean, "Ya-Hoooooooooooooo"!

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  7. AAA

    This should motivate the pundits to vote for change!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  8. jj 4 america

    Im happy that people are looking past the lies of the repubs and taking a stand i hope these polls translate into votes

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  9. Pablo

    'That one' is going to beat the 'rogue's' running mate...

    Of course, that will only happen if people show up to the polls. Get out and vote now if possible, or do it Nov. 4th if cannot, in the end the only thing that matters is that you DO IT!

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  10. John, NC

    Don't forget the silent majority out there.

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  11. Janet, American Abroad

    Isn't it a surprise that those who claim to be VERY RELIGIOUS to be GODLESS? In one word, NO!

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  12. John B. In NH

    The Verdict: False. What McCain is doing here, in part, is comparing apples and oranges. He compares two different aspects of Obama's tax plan as if they were the same. And Biden never said people making less than $150,000 are the "only" people who would get a tax cut under Obama's policies.

    seems like old had... McCain False!!!

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  13. Truth Be Told

    Hey John should be used to hearing "Houston we have a problem, Oh were going down"!!! That's the sound of the Republican Machine going down! Looks like your gonna get shot down twice in your life there Johnny boy!!! More or less it's the END

    Thanks Palin

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  14. Aussie

    it aint over till its over

    Dewey defeats Truman anyone?

    October 29, 2008 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  15. CnoMorePalin in N.C.

    Well...well. It seems as if it's been down hill every since Palin has stepped into the picture. His running mate is so BRAIN-LESS she doesn't even no how to put on her own lipstick. She will thousands to have others do it for her.

    TO BLINDSIDED, I know your there: It's so funny that you just keep pulling those same lines from Obamas books. What about the rest of the page or chapter that you didn't post! So misleading! That's so dumb...just like a McCain supporter.

    Always and forever...Obama 08 and12

    October 29, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  16. jaye

    To Jack Cafferty – McCain dosen't need president Bush to campaign for him....he has Joe The Plumber ...who isn't a real plumber, who has not paid his taxes, has tax lien against him, and use to live in Alaska (wonder if he knew Palin before) and is just another bad example of bad choices for John McCain..
    I still say Joe the Plumber is a McCain campaign plant, and if investigated you'll see I'm right.

    October 29, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  17. Richard A. Spomer

    These two charactors are dishonest, unethical, extrim liberal sum suckers, and most of all they don't care about average Joe the Plumer!!!

    Take that to your cookie jar....

    October 29, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  18. yellowbmblbee, Boston

    Negativity begets negativity. McLiar and "Palin the Puppet" are going to reap what they sow....

    Such an evil campaign...I can't wait until the airwaves are free of their hate and racism and lies.

    Obama will take more than Colorado, he'll take it all the way!

    October 29, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  19. CAL

    Everybody please get to the polls and vote, and those who can vote early, I tell you I have voted already and it went very smooth. so if you have the chance to vote early, do it, This is history, and the sooner I can look at MSNBC and don't see, not to mention palin's nerve recking voice the better.


    October 29, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  20. Kate

    Obama supporters, get out there and VOTE no matter how long you have to wait or how bad the weather is! We can only make this happen if we vote for Obama! 😀

    October 29, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  21. obama 08-12

    go obama most of us around are praying for you .

    October 29, 2008 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  22. Jason

    I...T...S Over Bayyyyyyybb

    October 29, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  23. Macdonald Onwuka

    I would think the American people are the world's role model, but re3ally wonder why a huge number of people are scared of change. Obama is promising change and as far as I am concerned that can only bring better thing for Americans and the world at large, the key to success in this age and time is LOVE, remember that peace is not absence of war, but the presence of LOVE..., I am not saying McCain/Palin are bad choices but Obama/Biden are simply better..one love
    Obama/Biden 2008.

    October 29, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  24. Becky CA

    I am disgusted with the Republicans demonizing people. Why is this Professor of Palestine descent suddenly radicall???

    Apparently, McCain led the IRI which funded Prof.Khalidi. Now to win a few votes, they are demonizing him. Just like ProAmerica parts of this country or real America or other such nonsense.

    I am tired of this politics of division. Stop DEMONIZING PEOPLE.

    October 29, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  25. Frank

    finally ,,,,,,,,people are seeing that the BUSH like scare tactics from 04 will not work this time,,,,what we should be scared of if mccain does win , palin could be president ,should something happen to mccain, that alone should steer you away from voting mccain in,,,,,,i just dont get why people dont see that ,,, its so clear to me,,,

    October 29, 2008 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
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