October 31st, 2008
07:39 PM ET
14 years ago

CNN Electoral Map update: McCain loses ground


Check out CNN's Electoral Map.

(CNN) - Some tough news for John McCain in his own backyard, as his home state of Arizona moves from “safe McCain” to “lean McCain” in the latest CNN poll of polls.

And the Republican nominee continues to lose ground in reliably-red areas, as North Dakota moves from “lean McCain” to “toss-up” – meaning three electoral votes that had been counted for McCain are now considered up for grabs.

But there’s some good news for McCain down south: Louisiana has moved from “lean McCain” to “safe McCain.” And the movement on the map is far from done.

Barack Obama now leads McCain by 131 electoral votes, up from his 128-vote lead yesterday. CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 291 electoral votes and John McCain 160. There are 87 electoral votes up for grabs. Again, 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

The CNN Electoral Map is based on analysis from the CNN Political Unit and takes into account a number of factors, including polling, state voting trends, ad spending patterns, candidate visits, and guidance from the campaigns, parties, and political strategists. The list will be updated regularly as the campaign develops over time.

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (220 Responses)
  1. tigerakabj

    Arizona needs to be in the toss-up category, not lean-McCain. Obama is making McCain campaign in his home state, which means McCain is done. You can't spend money in PA when you're spending it in your home state that you should be winning. I guess those folks have finally seen the true McCain.

    Obama/Biden 2008/2012.

    October 31, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  2. Georgia Peach

    Oh..... what a great day it will be if McCain looses his own home state. Remember all of the talk show hosts giving Gore hell for loosing his home state of Tennessee? What goes around comes around!

    October 31, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  3. FAYE, NV

    People let us vote for a better America not the usual way but the change way.

    yes we can!

    October 31, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  4. Turnabout is fair play

    Joe the Plumber October 31st, 2008 4:49 pm ET

    Tim, you're an idiot.

    Joe, YOU'RE the idiot, now go get your plumber's certification and pay your dam taxes.

    October 31, 2008 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  5. John. Austin, TX

    Let's keep talking to friends, making calls, and knocking on doors. Let's add more weight to our scale!! Turn Arizona blue, North Dakota blue, Georgia blue, and all other toss ups!!

    Unfortunately, Texas will remain behind the times...
    Tim... that WAS funny. So funny. I think that ten second clip represents the McCain campaign in its entirety. Troubled, unorganized, and shaky.


    October 31, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  6. Carlo

    In my cube I have a print out of Truman holding up the Chicago Daily Tribune declaring "Dewy Defeats Truman". My personal reminder to my self that the race isn't over and to continue doing my little bit to encourage obama voters to get out there and get their vote on.

    This particular election is too important to lose. It's not that I dislike or distrust John McCain, but I think his idea's on how to lead the nation, just like his campaign are dated and incorrect for our nations current situation. Barack Obama by contrast has really redefined how to run a presidential campaign this go around and I have every bit of confidence that he'll bring that same style of leadership to the white house, which is exactly what this nation needs now.

    October 31, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  7. Ian Lynch

    As payback maybe McCain should pull out of Pennsylvania and go into Obam's own backyard Illinois that 21 Electoral votes as well.

    October 31, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  8. Pat

    What a hoot! Arizona doesn't even like their native son anymore.

    Democrats, don't get cocky, get out and vote on Tuesday!

    October 31, 2008 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  9. vince

    to bad theres not enough common sense voters to turn oklahoma blue we will work on it for 2012 for now we will depend on you swing states to vote for the next prez obama

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  10. Bald ex-warrior

    Lets hope that the map stays true on Election Night.....
    Or will the Republicans find yet 'another way to win'

    Let's hope that Tuesday night will have such happy news!
    And I hope that we finally say goodbye to the outdated and incorrect ways of the Republicans. Things won't be perfect under Obama, but they will be one hell of a lot better than they are under Bush/McCain/Palin.

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  11. CTSadler

    Let's bring Joe the Plumber / Country Singer / Shyster to Arizona! He's the bees knees.

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  12. VOTE VOTE VOTE dont believe CNN

    well, is this the October surprise???

    mm, dont trust CNN, or Rove,or Limbaugh, hennety, palin, joe plumber, palin jane, ted joe,

    even teh weather is strange here.. in mn

    i know change is coming it is in the sunrays
    it is in the sky
    it is all over
    but dont trust the republicans _ well mcbush adn his crowd mentioned above, these clows would create a natural disaster if they have to.. wait and see

    with three days left, they are desperated.. they will come up with something..
    dont trust them VOTE VOTE
    help others, show them their poll locaiton
    print maps

    be an observer, take your cameras
    document, question people,

    there are many impostors being sent by hennety and limbaugh;


    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  13. The Voice

    But yet Fox News is reporting a very close race and McCain is closer than the polls say "their internal polling".

    The Republicans are in denial!

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  14. Samuel

    The GOP favorite slogan: Everyone for himself including Joe The Plumber

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  15. kbh

    Excellent! Obama/Biden '08!

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  16. Hard Working American for McCain

    It's not over until Tuesday night! Vote for "O" as in Oh, Crap were screwed!

    McCain/Palin, the only ticket to turn America around.

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  17. John S

    Louisiana has moved from “lean McCain” to “safe McCain.
    I just don't understand it. People in Louisiana are either uneducated or just plain fools. To even think of voting for the party that practically abandoned them after Katrina is beyond me. You never know about people. I could almost believe race has more to do with this.

    October 31, 2008 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  18. john, american

    I for one will be glad when this election is over but am overjoyed to see that most likely Obama and Biden will be the team facing the task of putting our CAPITALIST economy back together.

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  19. Obama supporter - Kevin McGee

    Just like statistical scrabble, I can see the McCain and Obama campaigns in the war rooms trying to sort through all of the possibilities. The Only problem is the McCain Campaign happens to be working with fuzzy math, just like the whole McCain campaign strategy has been since before the general election began.

    You know what's really strange, is how the McCain and Republican party had so much time to really work through all of the possible strategic scenarios while the democratic race between Obama and Clinton primary was going on. That's call sitting on your hands and hoping someone would help craft a winning strategy and a gift would fall in their laps.

    Certainly if that's how McCains campaign team is, then they don't deserve a win, especially as their team has shown signs of coming apart in the most critical times. I would much rather see McCain and his team fighting a race that would attempt to bring America together. Much like the Obama campaign has done throughout. But this whole idea of fighting by trying to play dirty politics and name calling. That's like playing the dozens, it won't add up in the end.

    Go Obama/Biden!

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  20. tulsa

    Joe The Plumber,
    Pay your taxes.

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  21. Kaye


    From your email to God's ear.

    I resurrected a button from the '04 election. It reads:

    Let's not elect him again this time either. I've gotten a lot of wear out of it since McSame has entered the race.

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  22. Anthony Sanchez

    John McCain is just a lousy candidate who has made bad decision after bad decision during this election. From trying to run as a change Washington candidate (how many years has he been in Washington??), to picking Sarah Palin, to stumbling over the economic mess. I am sure he probably wants this to be over as much as anyone!! He will soon have plenty of time to ponder all the mistakes he made on the campaign trail!!

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  23. Georgia Peach

    Joe the Plumber smells something! He decided to call in sick!!!

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  24. Dominique

    Let's turn the entire map blue. Please vote. If you have already voted, then volunteer to help others get to the polls. We can do this.

    Obama-Biden '08

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  25. Lauren

    I can't believe any states are voting McCain, honestly.

    October 31, 2008 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
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