October 14th, 2009
09:58 AM ET
13 years ago

Poll: Dead Heat in New Jersey

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/09/01/art.njrace.gi.jpg caption="There is more evidence Wednesday that with 20 days until the November election, the battle for New Jersey's top job is a dead heat."](CNN) - There is more evidence Wednesday that with 20 days until the November election, the battle for New Jersey's top job is a dead heat.

Forty percent of New Jersey likely voters questioned in a new Quinnipiac University poll say they back Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine, with 41 percent supporting Republican challenger Chris Christie. According to the survey, 12 percent say they'll vote for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.

Christie, the former federal prosecutor in New Jersey, held a four point lead over Corzine in Quinnipiac's poll from two weeks ago, with Daggett at 12 percent.

Two other surveys out over the last week, a Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind poll and Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey survey, also indicated that the New Jersey gubernatorial contest was all tied up.

The new Quinnipiac poll suggests that 76 percent of Democrats back Corzine, 83 percent of Republicans support Christie, and independents back Christie 45 to 32 percent, with 16 percent supporting Daggett.

"Daggett appears to take slightly more voters from Christie than from Corzine," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "It's not a big margin, but in a tight race, every little bit might count. If Daggett's support drops between now and election day, Christie may be the likely beneficiary."

According to the survey, the vast majority of Corzine and Christie backers say their minds are made up, but less than four in ten Daggett supporters say they won't change their mind.

"It's still a nail-biter. Christopher Christie has never given up the lead, but it's been getting slimmer and now it's a dead heat," says Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Historically, third party candidates fade on election day. Apparently, voters agree. Very few of his backers are committed to independent candidate Christopher Daggett and 77 percent of all voters say he has no chance of winning."

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted October 7-12, with 1,264 New Jersey likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

Filed under: Chris Christie • Jon Corzine • New Jersey
soundoff (35 Responses)
  1. cgillette369

    new jersey deserves the crrok Corzine a carpetbagger from Illinois and Wall Street. if they want more of the same re-elect him.

    yeah, that's a good plan.

    October 14, 2009 10:00 am at 10:00 am |
  2. Limp-Dick Blimpaugh

    Just can't trust Reslugs, the party of 'Just say NO to Everything" to run this country again.

    October 14, 2009 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  3. phoenix86

    Corzine will pull it out. At midnight on October 31, ACORN funding is turned back on.

    Corruption and incompetence will be re-elected in NJ. Poor State.

    October 14, 2009 10:05 am at 10:05 am |
  4. BOB

    If Jersey Elects a republican they should be removed from the Union. That fat cat looks like your typical greedy republican tool, and talks like one to boot.

    Do not punish Corizone for the George W Bush recession. He and the Democrats kept it from being a Depression.

    October 14, 2009 10:06 am at 10:06 am |
  5. Enough

    Vote out ALL Democrats and take back our country. We cannot afford any more bankrupting of America.

    October 14, 2009 10:09 am at 10:09 am |
  6. haren

    Folks we need democrat gov. and not crony tax cut guy Christie.
    We made mistake and now paying dearly for not electing gov. Florio for all this mess created by tax cut for rich at state level and fed. level.

    October 14, 2009 10:11 am at 10:11 am |
  7. katiec

    Cannot understand how anyone, with their record of these last eight years, extremist tactics, and undying support for big business over the welfare of our country, can even remotely want to elect any republican to office.
    They almost destroyed our country, their quest of hate, anger, fear mongering and division of our country, having a goal of destroying our president have created such a black mark on our political system,
    The world is watching and they are a disgusting embarressment to
    our country.

    October 14, 2009 10:14 am at 10:14 am |
  8. We Won Get Over It

    Since Christie has been calling Corzine – wacko and Corzine fought back calling Christie FAT... and the republican butts complained I suppose people said...hey how come a republican can as per usual spew lies and hate and then when a dem fights back the complain. It sure opened their eyes to the crumbum republicans AGAIN.

    October 14, 2009 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  9. Christie = Karl Rove

    Gov. Corzine should run ads about Christie's unethical associations with Karl Rove, which are currently under investigation for ethics violations.

    NJ and our country have had enough of the Bush/Rove politics.

    October 14, 2009 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  10. demsrulz

    How quickly our citizens forgot that republican policies of letting Corporate America implement its will plunged this country into financial turmoil... Unbelievable...

    October 14, 2009 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  11. gt

    new jersy deserves corzine,,,, ha ha ha ,, jokes on the voters,,,,

    October 14, 2009 10:24 am at 10:24 am |
  12. Tim

    Let's not forget that it was the Republicans (Christie Whitman) that got us into this mess in the first place. Starting with the Keane years, they run up the debt leaving the Democratic gov to raise taxes, then it starts all over again. The third alternative stands no chance of winning because in NJ you belong to either one gang or the other.

    October 14, 2009 10:29 am at 10:29 am |
  13. rob

    why is it there is never anyone to really vote for. These two are horrible. that's a choice?

    October 14, 2009 10:29 am at 10:29 am |
  14. jaye

    Another poll....... sheesh.

    October 14, 2009 10:31 am at 10:31 am |
  15. Kevin in Ohio

    Pray that the citizens of New Jersey see the light and do not re-elect a failed and corrupt politician like Corzine. Time to send a message that corruption and liberalism/socialism are not acceptable in this country!

    October 14, 2009 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  16. Emmanuel Goldstein

    Tax the Rich. Get them out of Our State. Benefits and Cash for All, not Just Some. Vote Corzine, and you won't have to work anymore.

    October 14, 2009 10:40 am at 10:40 am |
  17. It's better in Bucks

    Vote Corzine. Vote Corzine, Vote Corzine.

    (this message brought to you by the PA. Assoc. of Realtors).

    October 14, 2009 10:41 am at 10:41 am |
  18. T'SAH from Virginia

    Well – maybe New Jersey will remain BLUE but I am having second thoughts about VIRGINIA!!!

    Creigh MESSED UP when he distanced himself away from President Obama and Tim Kaine???? Bad Move... I may stay home – like many other DEMOCRATS – and this is AGAINST my beliefs because I always VOTE!!!

    Creigh would have to come out with something better before the voting date that would PROMPT me to fight for him!!! Otherwise, OH WELL!!!

    October 14, 2009 10:43 am at 10:43 am |
  19. Just My Opinion in Texas

    Just a question ... What are the internals of the poll? (Percentages of Democrat, Republican and Independents polled.)

    Anyone know?

    October 14, 2009 10:47 am at 10:47 am |
  20. lemmy

    Vote for Daggett my fellow Jersians. But whatever you do, dump Corzine.

    October 14, 2009 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  21. aproudmemberoftheunpatrioticmob

    Looking at the pictures I could see either one of them doing a perp walk in two years. But since the state is controlled by corrupt unions I would bet on the Democrat since they are the picks for the most corruption.

    October 14, 2009 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  22. Lilarose in Bandon, OR

    Hey, New Jersey!

    Are you going to be the first step in getting the Republicans back in control of stuff?

    Then another rep here and another senator there?

    Pretty soon, we'll have George W. Bush back!

    October 14, 2009 10:56 am at 10:56 am |
  23. Bluebonnet

    If the mob-run state of New Jersey wants to get out of the evil clutches of corruption, they will NOT reelect Corzine. Simple.

    October 14, 2009 10:57 am at 10:57 am |
  24. Jackie in Dallas

    Ah, at least this poll questioned 1,264 "likely voters". That's approximately .0002% of the estimated number of citizens of the state (in 2008). Hmm. If we assume that only 65% of those people are registered voters (and that's a very generous estimate!), that means that the polled subjects constitute just a little over .0001% of the target group. And that is limited to those with telephones (and probably doesn't include cell phone numbers).

    When are these polling organizations going to be questioned about their methodologies? No sane scientist would accept that type of percentage as representative! Yet we have NATIONAL polls that question less than 1100 people! That is less than .00001% - and that is a generous estimate! Yet we hear the media pour out these numbers like they are magical!

    Go ahead, CNN. Moderate me out yet again. Every time I bring this subject up, you shut me out. Eventually, though, one will slip through the censorship and maybe get some people to actually think about the absurdity of these numbers.

    October 14, 2009 10:58 am at 10:58 am |
  25. rr

    People in NJ love corruption and being a laughing stock.

    Are they better off than they were 4 years ago? Who cares as long as the kickbacks and bribes keep coming.

    Keep up the negative ads, Corzine. they work!

    October 14, 2009 10:58 am at 10:58 am |
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