November 2nd, 2009
10:39 AM ET
13 years ago

Poll suggests dead heat in battle for New Jersey governor

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption="The New Jersey race is too close to call."](CNN) - With one day to go until Election day, a new poll suggests New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's in a statistical tie with his Republican challenger, Chris Christie.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey released Monday morning, 42 percent of likely New Jersey voters back Christie, the former federal prosecutor in the Garden State, with 40 percent supporting Corzine, the Democratic incumbent fighting for a second term, and 12 percent backing Independent candidate Chris Daggett. Six percent remain undecided.

Christie's two point advantage is well within the poll's sampling error. A Quinnpiac University survey released Wednesday indicated that Corzine held a 5 point lead, just within in the poll's sampling error. Christie was up 2 points over Corzine in a Fairleigh Dickenson University survey released Friday. Most surveys in New Jersey over the past seven weeks have suggested that Corzine and Christie were deadlocked, with Daggett in the low double digits.

The poll indicates that 38 percent of Daggett supporters say they might change their mind. Thirty-nine percent say Corzine is their second choice, while 29 percent say Christie is number two. Only one in ten Christie backers and just 13 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.

"Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election," says Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In most races - including the one in Virginia this year - the outcome hinges on turnout," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But in New Jersey, the outcome is likely to be determined by the size of the vote for minor-party candidates. If turnout is relatively high but all the extra voters choose an independent candidate, that won't affect the margin between the Democrat and the Republican."

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted October 27-November 1, with 1,533 New Jersey likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn

Filed under: Chris Christie • Jon Corzine
soundoff (21 Responses)
  1. Mark

    There is no way voters will reelect Corzine. He's ruined NJ.

    November 2, 2009 10:41 am at 10:41 am |
  2. Eric in Denver

    NJ please wake up and do the right thing for your state. Corzine is a complete crook. He has raised every possible tax in your state known to mankind.Your unemployment rate has doubled, your taxes have doubled, while your pay has gone down. This guy would tax oxygen if he could. If you want more of the same corrupts high taxed environment than vote for the clown Corzine. If you want any type of positive for your state vote for Christie. A Daggett vote is a vote for Corzine.

    November 2, 2009 10:46 am at 10:46 am |
  3. this black liberal hates Obama

    Can everyone repeat after me? OK! here we go!

    And a One and a Two and a "GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE."

    November 2, 2009 10:49 am at 10:49 am |
  4. victim of republican greed

    New Jersey deserves better than Spiro Christie.

    November 2, 2009 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  5. Kevin in Ohio

    Corzine needs to stop LYING. He accused Christie of being on the campaign trail with Joe Wilson....but that was a patently untrue statement. Looks like democrats will do ANYTHING to maintain their power. Corzine.....YOU LIE.

    November 2, 2009 11:09 am at 11:09 am |
  6. Albo58

    All the voters of New Jersey have to do is ask themselves, "are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" and they'll know how to vote. It's not about party's anymore, it's about public servants doing the will of their constituency!

    November 2, 2009 11:13 am at 11:13 am |
  7. dale

    Way to go cnn. Throw more questions into peoples minds. If nj has 1 hope for survival it's with chritie.
    People are tired of government period. What a joke and they won't stop until we are paying high taxes on everything.we don't need government at all except for national security. Let the states run themselves the we'll separate the good from the bad and then fix the bad.
    Have faith in the people over the government.

    November 2, 2009 11:18 am at 11:18 am |
  8. D Miner

    Christie Whittman left New Jersey holding the bag, and the bag was empty. Another Republican in Trenton, after 8 years of Bush and Cheney bankrupted the country, and Whittman lied about the air being safe in NY after 9/11? I'll move out if that happens.

    November 2, 2009 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  9. katiec

    It is hard to understand how anyone can support anyone who represents the party of NOthing.
    Their actions these last 10 months prove how little they care about
    our country and us, how they will continue to sacrifice us for big
    business and have lost all integrity and honor.
    After eight years of almost destroying our country they try to indicate they now have all the answers. Anyone who believes that, I have a bridge to no where to sell you.

    November 2, 2009 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  10. gt

    vote corzine,,,, he is our man ,, record high taxes,,, no job creation,,, poor roads ,, corrupt government,, why not give him 4 more yrs ,,,, we the voters deserve it,,,, we like getting rip off.....

    November 2, 2009 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  11. We Won Get Over It

    If Christie wins the republicans will claim they are surging ahead. But if you go back and look at governors of New Jersey there have been almost as many republicans. So I suppose it is even steven. Remember when Whitman was tapped for bush's cabinet, she was the governor of New Jersey.

    November 2, 2009 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  12. Keith in Austin

    If a Liberal Universary Poll is claiming the race in a virtual tie, Corzine is in BIG TROUBLE! This week will mark the beginning of the end for left-wing liberalism! Not soon enough too!

    November 2, 2009 11:50 am at 11:50 am |
  13. Mike

    Mr. Corzine's record of pathological lying and buying his votes through his Wall St. money to motivate his base of minorities must finally catch up to him. As Governor, the man has been a brutal disaster.

    Mr. Corzine, who had a net worth of $500 to $600-milion in 2000, at last count was under $100-million. He has spent so much on personal propaganda that hopefully Corzine will need to claim bankruptcy after this loss.

    November 2, 2009 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  14. Otis

    Seems like only days ago Corzine was up by 9 points. Why is that lead gone? That's because the group that did the poll did it INACCURATELY!

    If Chris Christie wins this, he will have successfully campaigned in such a way where he offered only one campaign promise: I'm not Jon Corzine.

    This election is purely a referendum on Corzine's work as governor.

    November 2, 2009 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  15. Lou - Manchester, CT

    Once again, we have an election that could conceivably rip a state apart. What does it say when the leading candidates are splitting almost 85% of the vote and the remaining 15% are torn between an independent candidate or have not decided who to vote for.
    Is it possible a candidate could be elected with as little as 40% of the vote? Yes. If so, what does that say about the process.
    As with the Virginia elections, residents of New Jersey should vote on principal, not polls not what a party shill is telling them.

    November 2, 2009 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  16. Bren

    Vote for Christie New Jersey!! A vote for Daggett is a vote for Corzine!!

    New Jersey-the highest taxes in the country since Corzine was elected-–state, sales, real estate, toll roads.

    New Jersey-–the unemployment rate has doubled since Corzine was elected.

    If Corzine wins-–there is NO way that taxes and the unemployment rate are going to go down.

    Christie has promised tax cuts every year, including his first year in office!!!

    November 2, 2009 11:53 am at 11:53 am |
  17. Chanel

    If VA and NJ go the Republican route, it's going to be a media frenzy... goodness

    November 2, 2009 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  18. Christie = Karl Rove

    Americans have had enough of Bush politics from Christie's unethical violations with Karl Rove.

    Vote Gov. Corzine or Daggett.

    November 2, 2009 11:56 am at 11:56 am |
  19. GIBBS

    christie for governor....wake up new jersey....we all know what corzine obama cronie......kick him out or else watch you taxes skyrocket!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    November 2, 2009 11:59 am at 11:59 am |
  20. Jeff Langer

    Go Corzine go Democrats!

    November 2, 2009 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  21. Chad

    If Jersey re-elects Corzine after the horrible job he has done, then they deserve what they vote for. Why would anyone want this guy in charge of anything?

    November 2, 2009 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |