[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/09/01/art.njrace.gi.jpg caption="The New Jersey race is too close to call."](CNN) - With one day to go until Election day, a new poll suggests New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's in a statistical tie with his Republican challenger, Chris Christie.
According to a Quinnipiac University survey released Monday morning, 42 percent of likely New Jersey voters back Christie, the former federal prosecutor in the Garden State, with 40 percent supporting Corzine, the Democratic incumbent fighting for a second term, and 12 percent backing Independent candidate Chris Daggett. Six percent remain undecided.
Christie's two point advantage is well within the poll's sampling error. A Quinnpiac University survey released Wednesday indicated that Corzine held a 5 point lead, just within in the poll's sampling error. Christie was up 2 points over Corzine in a Fairleigh Dickenson University survey released Friday. Most surveys in New Jersey over the past seven weeks have suggested that Corzine and Christie were deadlocked, with Daggett in the low double digits.
The poll indicates that 38 percent of Daggett supporters say they might change their mind. Thirty-nine percent say Corzine is their second choice, while 29 percent say Christie is number two. Only one in ten Christie backers and just 13 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.
"Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election," says Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"In most races - including the one in Virginia this year - the outcome hinges on turnout," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But in New Jersey, the outcome is likely to be determined by the size of the vote for minor-party candidates. If turnout is relatively high but all the extra voters choose an independent candidate, that won't affect the margin between the Democrat and the Republican."
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted October 27-November 1, with 1,533 New Jersey likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn