January 18th, 2010
11:51 AM ET
11 years ago

Rothenberg gives Brown the edge

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/01/14/art.sbrown0114.gi.jpg caption="The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat."]Washington (CNN) - Less than 24 hours before Massachusetts voters head to the polls, the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat.

On late Monday morning, Rothenberg changed his prediction from "Toss up" to "Lean Takeover" in favor of the Massachusetts Republican.

"While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow's race to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat," Rothenberg wrote on his Web site.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report has the race rated as a "Toss up," but notes in its analysis of the race that "we put a finger on the scale for Brown."

Follow Mark Preston on Twitter: @prestoncnn

Filed under: Martha Coakley • Scott Brown
soundoff (127 Responses)
  1. Lilarose in Bandon, OR

    Scott Brown knows if he gets the senatorial seat, he will have the best health care in the country for himself and his family.

    And to heck with the rest of us!

    January 18, 2010 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  2. Julie

    8 phone calls in one day, from Browns campaign..enough, forget it, I will not vote for him. LEAVE US ALONE... HE lost our whole families vote in MA to include the extended, not that we would vote for him any ways.

    January 18, 2010 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  3. gary davis Harbor Oregon proud american

    all the republicans can do is buy votes and threaten people with the lies
    don't be stupid and fall for the lies and deceit of the purist whites only party of NO!

    January 18, 2010 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  4. Obama Victim

    Barack who???

    January 18, 2010 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  5. Dutch the Great

    I really don't see a liberal state such as Massachusetts voting for a republican.

    January 18, 2010 12:18 pm at 12:18 pm |
  6. Ed, Santa Fe, NM

    I cannot believe Massachusetts will vote for a Republican and years of OBSTRUCTIONISM.....

    January 18, 2010 12:18 pm at 12:18 pm |
  7. hehehe

    Good luck to your next JOB, Martha!

    January 18, 2010 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  8. Palin Power

    This is a sign that Healthcare reform will fail and Sarah Palin becomes America's next and greatest President of ALL TIMES!

    January 18, 2010 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm |
  9. Fair is Fair

    The thing I like best about Brown is that he didn't go negative. Coakley, on the other hand, has run one of the most vile, disgusting, and quite honestly, incompetent campaigns I've ever witnessed.

    She engaged in every gutter sniping tactic in the book. And it backfired. Karma, Martha – karma.

    Can't wait until you're sworn in, Scott!

    January 18, 2010 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm |
  10. Albert K. L.A., CA

    Since Palin has not come out against Brown it appears that he is Palin approved which is to say he is far right.

    January 18, 2010 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  11. lia

    MA, are you really considering Mr. Cosmo Anti-Healthcare a viable option? Haven't you learned anything though the past few years?

    January 18, 2010 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  12. Aunt Bea and Opie

    Hahaha,the Cook Political Report,nonpartisan?Yea right,money is green and they take it from anyone that gives the most of it.People are so stupid to believe these polls,but they do,thats why scammers are making billions.

    January 18, 2010 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  13. Silas Kain - Boston

    Isn't it ironic that Ted Kennedy gave legitimacy to the Obama for President campaign and in the special election to fill Kennedy's seat the Obama Administration is the ultimate loser. This is a wake up call for the President. On Wednesday I would fire the entire hack staff of political advisers outside the Oval Office. Barack Obama still has an opportunity to be the "change we need" - all he has to do is start listening to his heart and stop listening to his pundits. This President should take a possible Coakley defeat as an opportunity to send a message to his own Party's leadership on Capitol Hill. He can no longer try to go along to get along. It's time for bold leadership – Barack Obama style.

    January 18, 2010 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  14. Jim From The OC

    This prediction MAKES MY DAY !!! Imagine – A Brown win could
    turn "The Messiah" into a lame duck Prez. after only 1 year – makes Jimmy Carter look like a mild success!

    January 18, 2010 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm |
  15. mario ca.

    How can you pay more for less care, plus big corp. are ready to deny anyone with previous illness, how dare can you vote for a GOP party of NO

    January 18, 2010 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm |
  16. Steve (the real one)

    The first shot for liberty was sounded so long ago in Ma! You can do it again on Tuesday! No more liberal clones, please! Say no to secret closed door meetings and union deals! If the liberals were so confident in this health care bill:

    1. Would they have to pay of Nelson and Landrieu to vote for it?
    2. Would it be negotiated behind closed doors and smoke filled rooms, instead of on CSPAN,like we were promised?

    It is up to up Ma! It will take guts to buck the current trend and say no to socialism! You can do it! We have your back, Ma!

    January 18, 2010 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm |
  17. MAObserver

    Following this race from inside Massachusetts....let me tell you that Brown will win in a landslide...by 6-10%. Everyone I know and talk to is voting for Brown, from mid-20s to elderly women.

    The only Coakley supporters left are the die-hard party-line yellow dog Democrats. She's run one of the worst, most negative campaigns in Massachusetts history and has turned down nearly every tv interview and talk show. Inside the state, she's completely invisible.

    Who knew the Populist revolt would again start in Massachusetts?

    Shot Heard Round the Country, incoming in 30 hours.

    January 18, 2010 12:37 pm at 12:37 pm |
  18. Ethan

    GOTV DEMS! GO MARTHA! Dems don't need to PAY our volunteers with money from corporate banks! Hell no! We want MORE CHANGE. Martha Coakley IS that change. Martha Coakley would be the FIRST FEMALE SENATOR (OR GOV) FROM MASS!

    We didn't elect Obama for more of the same GOP policies as the last 10 years.

    We sure as heck shouldn't expect ANY Republicans to WANT CHANGE, ever.

    We NEED a change AWAY from the status quo, NOT a change away from the Dems. That's why we NEED Martha!


    January 18, 2010 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  19. joel

    Way to Mass. stomp on everything that Ted believed in.

    January 18, 2010 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  20. "No one gets to walk between the rain." (Quote from Bob Seger); Randall in Torrance, CA (with two Master's Degrees from WWU)

    Oh my God! I think I'm gonna puke if this GOP hack wins Kennedy's seat. Someone quickly get the defibulator and see if we can revive Ted before another ReThuglican assumes command of ANYTHING!

    January 18, 2010 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  21. deeeman

    Plan B is to put it to us Americans in the middle of the night!

    January 18, 2010 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  22. southerncousin

    Wouldn't be great to see Americans reject the politics of thugs and name calling and dishonesty embodied by the current president and the unions. Call us some more names libs, please. Tell us how stupid we are some more. Degrade, demean and dismiss us more, please. Obama one and done.

    January 18, 2010 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  23. Luke

    Scott Brown is liar.

    January 18, 2010 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  24. Michael

    CNN, I just want to let you know, your on the wrong side in this election! Your feeble attempt to influence the political enviroment in Massachusetts will fail miserably! Then your analysis, influence and reporting will slowly dwindle down to appear just opinionated journalism. JUST LIKE FOX NEWS WITH NO CREDIBILITY!

    January 18, 2010 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  25. Obama Victim

    suffer left wing loons...............suffer

    January 18, 2010 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
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