January 18th, 2010
11:51 AM ET
11 years ago

Rothenberg gives Brown the edge

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/01/14/art.sbrown0114.gi.jpg caption="The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat."]Washington (CNN) - Less than 24 hours before Massachusetts voters head to the polls, the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat.

On late Monday morning, Rothenberg changed his prediction from "Toss up" to "Lean Takeover" in favor of the Massachusetts Republican.

"While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow's race to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat," Rothenberg wrote on his Web site.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report has the race rated as a "Toss up," but notes in its analysis of the race that "we put a finger on the scale for Brown."

Follow Mark Preston on Twitter: @prestoncnn

Filed under: Martha Coakley • Scott Brown
soundoff (127 Responses)
  1. good-bye global warming

    I hope the people of MA. vote for some real hope and change. Go Brown!!!!

    January 18, 2010 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  2. jules sand-perkins

    The predictions of Brown's victory still seem too good to be true.
    Don't accept it yet as a done deal: GO OUT AND VOTE!

    January 18, 2010 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  3. Former Republican

    More speculation. Let MA voters decide.

    It does seem curious, though, that the media does not cover the obvious contradictions in Brown's willingness to pose naked but hypocritically touted his so-called "morals" against others.

    You know for fact if Hillary Clinton or Sarah Palin had done those pube photos; the media would have been all over it.

    January 18, 2010 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  4. mark

    Vote for change, vote Scott Brown!

    January 18, 2010 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  5. Ron in California

    How true...VOTE for CHANGE. I used to have dollars now all I'll have us small change. Do the math. There is no way to add all these folks to the healh care rolls and pay for it as it is now structured. At least as we think it is structured since the Dems won't tell us what the Bill really is.

    January 18, 2010 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  6. P. Haag

    It's hilarious that Martha Coakley was even asked to the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr breakfast in Boston considering her stance on backing Harry Reid after his "Diarrhea of the mouth" episode where he was alleged to have stated "racist" remarks as well as racist generalizations. Fact is EVERYTHING that Harry Reid said was in complete contrast of Dr. Kings teachings.

    January 18, 2010 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  7. Steve (the real one)

    Scott Brown knows if he gets the senatorial seat, he will have the best health care in the country for himself and his family. And to heck with the rest of us!

    Too bad that wouldn't be true if Coakley wins, right?

    January 18, 2010 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  8. JL

    Ted Kennedy was a liberal that supported real HC reform..not this Frankenstein legislation that is rife with special interest deals and unfair exemptions for Obama cronies...Ted Kennedy was better than that....and Im not even a liberal saying this.

    January 18, 2010 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  9. Massachusetts Conservative

    Gary Davis, Ed in Santa Fe and Dutch....You are so out of touch it's pathetic. Keep voting for the "D" after your candidates names. You have no idea...NO IDEA....how fed up the people of Massachusetts are. A Republican going to Senate from MASSACHUSETTS!!!! The people have spoken. Ridicule republicans all you want...the tide has turned and we're not going to take it anymore.

    January 18, 2010 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  10. Massachusetts Conservative

    The Democrats would like you to believe that if Brown is elected, he will shift control of the Senate to the Republicans. Not true. It goes from 60-40 to 59-41. They still have an 18 vote lead. Maybe the Democrats need to wake up and LISTEN to the people of America who DO NOT WANT this Healthcare Bill shoved down their throats. This is why Brown is leading in the People's Republic of Massachusetts. The same poll that gave Brown a 48% – 46% lead last week indicated that 51% oppose Obamacara vs. 35% who are in favor of it. That is in the Bluest of Blue states. Democrats need to start listening to their constituents. Start over on Healthcare Reform. Do it out in the open and not behind closed doors. Do not give Labor Unions a 2 year tax exemption on the Healthcare bill (bet you didn't know that....behind closed door sweetheart deal for the Unions...wink wink)

    When Coakley loses tomorrow, she has no one to blame but herself. She has run an awful campaign...completely out of touch with the people of Massachusetts and falsely attacking her opponents record. As for Healthcare Reform...Democrats have no one to blame but themselves. A 60-40 majority...a fillabuster-proof majority...for the past year and they couldn't get it done. Absolutely shameful.

    January 18, 2010 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  11. Steve (the real one)

    all the republicans can do is buy votes and threaten people with the lies
    1. Darn, those shameful republicans for paying off Laudrieu and Nelson for their healthcare bill votes. Darn, the republican closed door, back room secret handshake meetings with the unions over their healthcare bil support!

    2. Darn, the GOP for telling us we would see the negotiations on CSPAN, and we still haven't! They were Republican lies and vote buying, right??

    January 18, 2010 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  12. lifelong democrat

    Special election in MA (tomorrow) is a REFERENDUM ON OBAMA and Democrat lead Congress and Senate who ABUSE THEIR POWER. Bill Clinton was right in his speech in MA stomping for Coakley; abuse of power indeed, committed by our OWN PARTY. Even me a lifelong democrat cannot stand BRIBERY and KICKBACKS committed by my party to buy votes of party members.

    I firmly believe in the RULE OF LAW, my party is NOT above the law. I'm hoping the good people of Massachussetts will go out and VOTE FOR SCOTT BROWN to put a brake on this abuse of power by my party. MA lead this country in first revolution, they will lead us again in second revolution; no bullets will be fired but the WILL OF THE PEOPLE will be heard in the ballot box provided my OWN PARTY will NOT resort to cheating. My party SQUANDERED trust and confidence granted to them by the American people. Loyalty to my party ends where loyalty to my country begins; I CHOOSE MY COUNTRY OVER MY PARTY.

    January 18, 2010 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  13. ICARE - countdown to 2011

    Brown, as an ellephant, will stand by his virtue of making sure we keep paying for $300.00 a pill. I DONT CARE WHAT HE SAYS... AT THE END OF THE DAY... WE'RE THE LOSERS...

    January 18, 2010 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  14. Dan Holiday

    HAHAHAHAHA. This is such great news. To think, a Republican may win a seat that has been held by the Kennedy regime for so many years. And that by doing so, he may stall out the Healthcare bill? Awesome. It seems that so many Americans are seeing what a huge mistake was made by electing democrats. I just thank God that they didn't wait too long. God bless Mr. Brown. I hope he wins.

    January 18, 2010 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  15. ICARE - countdown to 2011

    Where is Brown's record of caring for America? Is it as good as the Kennedy's? If not, dont expect anything from him unless you are a billionaire 🙂

    January 18, 2010 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  16. This is the Change we can believe in

    You all are reading this wrong. Senator Kennedy is steering this from above. Senator Kennedy would not want THIS healthcare bill this way. He is too proud to have rammed THIS bill down American's throats. This bill (Senate version and the house version are bad of America). In this instance, even the late Senator Kennedy would likely agree that no bill is better than this bill. If we are going to do a change, we need to do it right.

    We need change in this country badly. Good things happen when people reach accross the aisle and make deals that are good for America as a whole. Having one party in power whether Rs or Ds just leads to bad politcs.

    I hope Brown wins and I hope that it causes both parties to stop the petty bickering and sit down and work on a true overhaul of health cae, the tax code, finding a way out of two wars, finding a way to get more jobs in America, etc.

    In case you are wondering, I am a registered CONSERVATIVE in NY state. But we have to stop figuring out how to make Obama lose and find a way to make America win. A Brown victory will cause greater compromise and start us on the road to rebulding this great nation.

    January 18, 2010 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  17. Franky, Land of Lincoln

    I won't be surprised if he wins but for a big majority, I'll be a bit. I think is gonna be close than expected, people who in fact will vote for Brown will need to get time, effort, and resiliance to make him come on top.

    But I do believe people will come out, is important.

    January 18, 2010 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  18. josephine

    Scott Brown now, Sarah Palin in 2012!!!! Go Reps, we need to take America back.

    January 18, 2010 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  19. kurtcburg

    What a shock !!!. Coakley makes Sarah Palin look brillianst. The Dems couldn't come up with somebody better than this dim whit.

    January 18, 2010 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  20. Andy in Atlanta

    I think many people are missing the point. Chances are the Democrats will win the election tomorrow based on turn out, but it will probably be close. Who knows, Brown just might win but I doubt it. However, the point really is: how could a Republican possibly do so well in an historically Democratic state for, of all things, Teddy's seat??? It is an indication of the mood of the nation. It is an indication that the people do not want our politicians working to ram legislation down out throats that the majority of Americans do not support (please see realclearpolitics.com). Whether you agree with healthcare reform or not, what is happening in Washington, D.C. right now is appalling. I have been working for healthcare reform for almost 12 years. We need it. But it has to accomplish three things: reduce cost, increase access and maintain or improve quality. What is in congress now only increases access. It will increase cost and damage quality. Sorry, that's not a polical opinion, it's the well-centered view of an expert, it's also common sense. The unfortunate thing is that a Coakley victory tomorrow by a slim margin will not be seen for what it really is ... a wake up call for congress.

    One more thought. As an Independent I find it interesting that Liberals on this blog are accusing Rebublicans of buying votes through big business lobbying campaigns. They don't see that the same thought applies to buying votes with taxpayer dollars. Please, on both sides, wake up before it's too late.

    January 18, 2010 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  21. voter

    for some reason I don't trust these polls. The polls are erratic. Some have coakely up 15 points others have brown within the margin of error. In addition, people in the ground in boston are saying that the tea baggers from out of state are participating in these polls which makes it invalid. At the end of the day, the political machine for democrats in boston will come out. recall how obama was up 10 in new hampshire primary and loss to hillary who won by 10.

    January 18, 2010 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  22. Paulie

    Thi is the first colission of what will become the democratic shipwreck of 2010. It will be just as bad as 1994 was. The messiah's utter inability to do anything about the state of the country (other than use the word "inherited" over and over again) had irritated people in true blue Taxachusetts to the point where ted "The Chauffeur" Kennedy;s seat is headed to th GOP.

    Hey, Barack, you are allowed to DECLINE an inheritance too instead of knowing exactly wat you were gettin gnito and then whining like a petulent child about what you "inherited". The democrats controlld congress for the four years immediately prior to your benediction so anything you "inherited' was from you own corrupt party.

    Unemployment up to 10%. Tens of millions unemployed. Jobs goign nowhere. And Barack O-Vomit blames everything from the snow storms that cancelled a global warning convention to his freefalling poll numbers of George Bush.

    CHANGE! CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN!! Do-nothing whining fraud.

    January 18, 2010 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  23. Gale

    Joel, does that mean stomping on wife cheating, drinking and driving, young girl killing, contributing to the corruption of minors, and missing important speeches because he was too drunk to appear? Yeah, go Mass.!!

    January 18, 2010 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  24. Christy

    Hey if Brown wins, he will be the biggest leader of the GOP of saying no! Do you actually think that the americans that are in need will not after the fact see the disaster that these people are doing to this country? Let Brown win, Democrats are still the majority people! We can still pass and change the bill without the republicans, they just would have their nose in it. That's ok, the sick part is having a republican runnin that state! If he wins, oh the dems will stand up and maybe slap Obama a bit to get on some serious issues quickly and with haste! Guys we will never give them the majority! We need to become the party of action! Republicans are like zombies, they don't think they listen and whatever they hear (republican chant) they believe! So if he wins, we still are in control and we will still have a health care passed, let this one man screw it up and let the whole country turn on republicans for that reason! In this case it will only be one person, one man that will be the destroyer of the GOP!

    January 18, 2010 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  25. voter

    Fair is Fair

    The thing I like best about Brown is that he didn't go negative. Coakley, on the other hand, has run one of the most vile, disgusting, and quite honestly, incompetent campaigns I've ever witnessed.

    She engaged in every gutter sniping tactic in the book. And it backfired. Karma, Martha – karma.

    Can't wait until you're sworn in, Scott!

    Really brown ran a positive campaign. go to huff post and see the video on how some from brown's capaign stop stated he wanted to put a curling iron in coakely's behind. brown thought it was funny. nice to see that he thinks rape is funny.

    January 18, 2010 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
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