January 18th, 2010
11:51 AM ET
11 years ago

Rothenberg gives Brown the edge

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/01/14/art.sbrown0114.gi.jpg caption="The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat."]Washington (CNN) - Less than 24 hours before Massachusetts voters head to the polls, the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat.

On late Monday morning, Rothenberg changed his prediction from "Toss up" to "Lean Takeover" in favor of the Massachusetts Republican.

"While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow's race to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat," Rothenberg wrote on his Web site.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report has the race rated as a "Toss up," but notes in its analysis of the race that "we put a finger on the scale for Brown."

Follow Mark Preston on Twitter: @prestoncnn

Filed under: Martha Coakley • Scott Brown
soundoff (127 Responses)
  1. MarthaLies

    Martha is a Catholic when it is convenient – the ultimate of character and moral flaws. I don't agree with the religion and did the right thing – left it. Listening to her in person – not sure she actually knows why she supports her own opinions. I want someone who has thought on their own – may not always agree with them – but can think. The obamination (sic) that is paying back the unions is immoral, wrong, and laughable coming from the arrogant left.

    January 18, 2010 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
  2. Obama ... worst President ever!

    Did you ever watch these blogs to see who really is posting on here. Over 75% of the posts during the day are from Democrats. Those are the idiots too stupid to work and must depend on a communistic leader such as Obama to put into action plans for the Government to take care of them. Don't believe me, just look at the handout lines, i.e., welfare, foodstamps, free clinics, etc. Go to work losers!!

    January 18, 2010 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  3. harvey

    all you need to know is that FOX News supports Brown. he's one of the most detestable candidates in electoral history, along with Palin. he's a do-nothing know-nothing, gurgling about the "people's seat". just like Bush-Cheney doing the "pepole's business". the only business these Republicans do is their own business. Brown will vote to de-regulate Wall Street, screw Main Street, screw millions out of healthcare, and get huge tax breaks for the rich while telling the middle class that he'll be cutting their taxes. the rich will save hundreds of thousands, the middle class might save 20 bucks. forget the UPS uniform – they should've dressed him in a brown shirt with a swastika or a white sheet and hood.

    January 18, 2010 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  4. Len (Colorado)

    It is a shame that the Right Wing and GOP has lied from the beginning about President Obama. And it is really terrible that the people of Mass. will allow Brown to win. He will do nothing for the good of America. He will step right in line to discredit President Obama. The GOP has been doing this from day one!

    We are a nation of hypocrits and unfortunately, racists.

    January 18, 2010 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  5. Steve in Ct

    To Palin Power @ 12:20. Who are you trying to panic? Do you seriously thing we're stupid enough to vote your way because you try to convince us you're for Palin. Get real.

    To gary davis Harbor Oregon proud American; 12:10. With all these back room deals President Obama is trying to pull you have the ordacity to say the Republicans are the ones out to buy votes? Do you read? Do you pay attention? No wonder we Americans got suckered into believing Obama and putting him in power. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. I'm glad you're not from Mass. and able to vote tomorrow. As a matter of fact with your lack of the ability to reason please don't vote,,,, ever. Good grief.

    January 18, 2010 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  6. Jeannie K

    Anyone ever hear of the 28th Amendment? Anyone running for office in house or senate needs to read up on it....times are tough and those in office just voted themselves another raise! Keep up that kind of BS and we'll have a whole new crew to run things!

    January 18, 2010 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  7. Gadsdengirl

    You can call us whatever names you so choose, what you fail to realize is that you are referring to the majority of Americans, and in so doing you have alienated those you would seek to appeal to. So, CNN is bad for reporting a poll? Is that to say CNN should not report factual outcomes? Wow. If you want biased media tune into any of the major broadcasters or MSLSD. I heard 3 different reporters there refer to the possibility of a healthcare fail (though it was already a fail in it's conception) as a tragedy, crisis, heartbreaker. Who's side do you suppose they are on? Hmmm...it's so hard to tell.

    January 18, 2010 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  8. NC

    Really scares the heck out of you democrats......That's Funny......Real Change is coming with Scott Brown.....Vote Republican in 2010 and 2012.

    January 18, 2010 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  9. Latisha

    I used to like Coakley, and I voted for Obama, but we don't need another rubber-stamp for Obama's horrible agenda.

    We need to stand up and do the right thing.

    I will proudly vote for Scott Brown tomorrow. Join me Independents and clear-minded Democrats!

    Let's take this country back! We can start in Massachusetts and pray others follow our lead!

    January 18, 2010 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  10. Matt

    Poor Teddy K is spinning in his grave!

    January 18, 2010 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  11. RufusVonDufus

    mmmm! mmmm! mmmm! Martha Hussein Coakley! mmmm! mmmm! mmmm!

    All she would ever be is a "Yes" man for MMMM! MMMM! MMMM! We do not need anymore like her in Washington. Stay home lady and bake your cookies!

    January 18, 2010 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  12. nadine

    Scott Brown does not have Massachussett best interest. He's sleeping with devils.

    January 18, 2010 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |

    Wow it's amazing when the left gets worried how quickly they resort to acting like spoiled 5 year olds!!! You guys should really think about your posts from the perspective of someone who can think rationally and clearly instead of those like yourselves who lead their lives based entirely on the emotional pull of the moment. Honestly... you make youw whole political party look infantile. And the names you guys pick... one guy bragging about his 2 masters degrees? How completely arrogant and self-absorbed! The only one impressed by that is YOU bud! Those who spend a life in acadamia have ZERO practical real world knowledge generally. GROW UP PEOPLE! The fact that you're so party-loyal and fired up speaks volumes of your world view and intellect. Not nearly the sophisticated elites you tell yourselves you are.

    January 18, 2010 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  14. JP

    This health care reform issue seemed all about the party and the chairman, and the opinion of the people didn't seem to matter.

    Shutting out people and bulldozing the way through seemed to be strategy. Now of course, it seems people have regained their respectful place. Opinions of the people DO matter.

    January 18, 2010 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  15. Val in MA

    Yup, this says it all. Citizens of MA are fed up with the Democratic leadership in Congress and Obama's liberal agenda that will only hurt our country. Tuesday evening Scott Brown will be a newly minted Republican Senator from MA, and you can take it to the bank.

    Go Scott Brown!

    January 18, 2010 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  16. Dan, CA

    Not only should the DEMs in office take notice but so should some of the contributors here. If Brown wins, this is great insight to what the majority of America wants. Hopefully BO learns and gives us the "Change" he promised and the "Change" we wanted... because I haven't liked this so-called change at ALL!

    January 18, 2010 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  17. Taylor

    If America wants to elect Republicans already knowing the track record for Republicans then America gets what it deserves. America is just coming out of the worst economic mess that the Republicans put us in. Why in the world would you want to go back. Stupid Stupid Stupid

    January 18, 2010 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  18. HypocriCNN/FOX Nuisense Are Antichrists Of News!

    Good Old HypocriCNN Doing Other Peoples Bidding Again. What In The Blue Hell Is A Rothenberg Poll And Why The Hell Should I Care About It. Either Way, The People Of Massachutsetts Will Vote And Decide This Tuesday. Not The News (Noise) Media Nor Its Wreckless Journalism And Commentary.

    January 18, 2010 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  19. Jacob

    that conservative christian base love a dude that strips down naked for cameras! brown's nude cosmo centerfold was pretty hot! but now he is whining about liberal democrats??

    January 18, 2010 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  20. Mary Fitzgerald

    I will proudly cast my vote for Scott Brown tomorrow as will my entire family most of whom are registered as unenrolled though we all used to be registered Democrats.
    That we will be joined by so many in Massachusetts has come as a tremendous & wonderful surprise.
    I am so grateful that Mr.Brown had the courage to run in what we mistakenly thought was a hopeless election.

    January 18, 2010 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  21. Randall, Georgia

    Vote Scott Brown!!! A vote FOR FREEDOM!! Not for Socialism!

    January 18, 2010 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  22. Debbie

    Scott Brown has made a stir and most likely will win IF people don't vote. Key is that Mass is angry and they are looking to release that anger. But I think in my heart it will be like all people who say things when they are angry. They regret part of it later.

    Brown is only a GOP pawn and once his purpose has been used he will be of little use. Little use to the GOP and little use to Mass.

    Brown will not be asked to sit on any committee that could help Mass. There still will be 59 other votes in Congress that will prevent him from doing anything to help Mass.

    A vote for Brown is a vote for lost power for Mass.

    January 18, 2010 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  23. Beasley

    The electorate is fed up with the Democrats. If they want to start pointing fingers about why they lost this, take a look back at the 25% sales tax increase, including a widening of the scope of what gets taxed, to see why Massachusetts wants a chance, ANY chance, to vote against the Democratic machine.

    Where is this "change" we voted for? Back-room politics? Secret deals? I was looking forward to some real progress on environmental issues, and a better energy policy. So far, this Administration has been in power for a year, and we've got absolutely nothng to show for it. Unemployment is the same 10% as it was, housing prices are still down, and confidence remains low.

    The so-called Obama victory was not a mandate for the policies of the Democrats. It was simply a repudiation of the failed ideas of Bush and Cheney. This election, should it go to Brown, is a similar repudiation of the arrogance and low dealing of Pelosi and Reid.

    January 18, 2010 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  24. Debbie

    Massachusetts, why would you vote for President Obama by 25% points and then turn over the Senate seat to a tea bagger? Have you not seen how awful the tea baggers act and portray The President of the United States? They have raised over one million dollars for Brown. What does that tell you? Why would you reinforce they're hateful movement and let them derail the change you voted for? Think positive not negative, be hopeful not cynical, be the change you believed in.

    January 18, 2010 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  25. Ryan

    I think it is so funny when I read comments from obvious liberal robots that claim FOX news has no credibility. If FOX has no credibility why does it have the ratings? More people watch FOX news than any other news program. Why you might ask? FOX news tells the TRUTH. Mr. Brown may very well win this election. I am curious as to what these liberal fools are going say tomorrow evening when he does. Americans are 100% pissed at the Obama Administration's agenda. Plain and simple, there is going to be change in AMERICA. Liberals and progressives can either accept it or be destroyed.

    January 18, 2010 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
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