January 18th, 2010
11:51 AM ET
11 years ago

Rothenberg gives Brown the edge

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/01/14/art.sbrown0114.gi.jpg caption="The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat."]Washington (CNN) - Less than 24 hours before Massachusetts voters head to the polls, the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat.

On late Monday morning, Rothenberg changed his prediction from "Toss up" to "Lean Takeover" in favor of the Massachusetts Republican.

"While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow's race to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat," Rothenberg wrote on his Web site.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report has the race rated as a "Toss up," but notes in its analysis of the race that "we put a finger on the scale for Brown."

Follow Mark Preston on Twitter: @prestoncnn

Filed under: Martha Coakley • Scott Brown
soundoff (127 Responses)
  1. jpetz

    If Brown wins, HC reform may go down in flames. if it does, there will not be another attempt at reform for decades. Not a chance. I sincerely hope the voters in Mass understand that. If they are ok with that and choose Brown, so be it.

    January 18, 2010 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  2. The Right Worships at the Altar of Ignorance

    I'm tempted to say to the people of MA that if you vote for the Tea-Partier-in-disguise Brown you'll get what you deserve for being so blind. However, the REALLY sad part is . . . .you're going to take the rest of the country down with you!

    January 18, 2010 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  3. Charlotte

    Go Scott Brown! Americans are taking back America from the evil ones who are trying to steal it from us. Scott Brown's victory is a victory for America!!!!!!

    January 18, 2010 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |

    Go Scott Go! We need real Americans in charge to stop these Mao, Chavez loving idiots from destroying our country.

    January 18, 2010 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  5. Charlotte

    Kill Obamacare or it will kill us! Obama's little trip to Massachussetts is his Copenhagen III....another FAIL for Obama. Fail Obama Fail!

    January 18, 2010 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  6. Marvin

    Geee... I wonder if they factored in the ACORN and union fraud. And after Brown wins, for months all we will hear is how the election was "stolen".

    January 18, 2010 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  7. Tony T

    This is indeed a blessing for our country. Protect the USA!!! Pelosi, Redi and Obama were out to destroy our country by creating crisis after crisis so the government would need to "takeover". This election is all about saying no to socialism and the radical lefts ideology. This is why the Dems only get full control for 2 years every 20, once they remind Americans of their tax, spend and redistribution of wealth loser ways.

    January 18, 2010 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  8. Bill in Deerfield

    The majority of voters in MA are not stupid. They can see through the Dem's misguided agenda. Coakley displays a mean spiritied and cynical facade. Brown appears optimistic, welcoming, and bright. The people of MA will support Brown Tuesday to help ensure their children and grandchildren are not forever encumbered by the fiscal mistakes of the Obama administration.

    January 18, 2010 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  9. Breath of fresh air

    I can see this guy being President one day!

    January 18, 2010 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  10. C Spurgeon

    Why would anyone vote for a Republican who has said he will vote with the republicans as instructed and stop health care. UGH>>>>

    January 18, 2010 02:03 pm at 2:03 pm |
  11. SF

    Time for some Chicago magic and raise some dead dems to vote again

    January 18, 2010 02:04 pm at 2:04 pm |
  12. Dan

    I video from Brown's campaign stop with the rape of Coakley comment will play out?

    That alone could result in a 10% swing against Brown. My wife saw it and was shocked that any woman would support Brown after that.

    January 18, 2010 02:05 pm at 2:05 pm |
  13. Joel Brown

    Fingers crossed for Scott Brown to stop this socialist prosperity KILLING Nanny State agenda!

    I am SO FED UP with Republican and conservative half-wit armchair DEMONIZERS that parrot their vitriolic hate mongers from MSNBC.

    The half of the country that doesn't think like victims recognizes that Health Care reform can be achieved WITHOUT burning the path to individual liberty and prosperity for those of us willing to pursue it.

    Yes thats an elbow in the faces of all the apathetic whiners with terminal employee mentality.

    January 18, 2010 02:05 pm at 2:05 pm |
  14. Jerry-Dallas-Tx

    This guy is not even providing healthcare for his workers.Neither is he giving any benefits! He calls them independent contractors,same thing that I see with Mexican illegal immigrants hired here in Texas. Why are Americans soo blinded from calling him what he is? He is a liar and obscene person with nude pictures all over internet maraunding as conservative! I am Republican in decades but were are wrong.His vote is another NO for the change we all agree is needed. It will another 4yrs of this great Nation falling apart while the rest of the World progress.

    January 18, 2010 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  15. Dodie

    It appears that there is a possibility Massachusetts may become a red state? Republican, Scott Brown, who has vowed to stop the Democratic health care bill in its tracks seems to be gathering a lot of support due to American’s fear of increased taxes, immigration and national security.

    This is a very sad day for our country when the people are choosing not to provide affordable health care for the American people motivated by fear! This is just one more turn of the screw in a declining nation!

    January 18, 2010 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  16. aware

    Bravo Brown! This former Democrat now Independent will be registering Republican for the next election! 🙂

    January 18, 2010 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  17. Obama reads his lies, unions thrive, gov't grows, national debt grows, with our freedoms and economic private sector engine taken away from us.

    January 18th, 2010 12:44 pm ET

    When are the so called moderates of the Democrat party going to realize that Obama's policies are toxic and the healthcare plan is not what WE WANT. Just look at what is happenning in the most liberal of liberal states and they can't even get a Democrat to win in what should be a walk in the park for the Democrats. The American people see what Obama and his Chicago style of politics is all about and we are sick of it!!!!!!

    January 18, 2010 02:09 pm at 2:09 pm |
  18. FM

    I can also predict. We are going to witness what happened in New Hampshire during the primaries 2008 between Hillary and the President. Everything turned out quite opposite to everyone's expectation!

    January 18, 2010 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  19. Dimslie

    It's great to hear the Dims whine about the "Party of No". It seems the voters are wanting the party of "Hell No !!! "

    January 18, 2010 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  20. Dimslie

    Dear Randall in Torrance, CA:

    Maybe by the time you get your THIRD Masters Degree from WWU someone will have heard of your school.

    January 18, 2010 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  21. agro21

    Right on!!!!! Hope and change we can really beleive in.

    January 18, 2010 02:16 pm at 2:16 pm |
  22. Steve

    Barack obama: "Anybody can buy a pickup truck."
    Marie Antoinette: "Let them eat cat."

    Can you say, "REVOLUTION"?

    January 18, 2010 02:16 pm at 2:16 pm |
  23. Scott

    It's so insane. Poor, hardworking Americans are hoping for this country to fail and this President to be destroyed when he is just trying to help the downtrodden and vulnerable.

    How utterly stupid these people are – sheep led to the slaughter by the corporate masters. I guess a million dollars a day spent by big health insurance companies will go a long way to ensuring their continued billion dollar annual profits. Citizen FAIL.

    January 18, 2010 02:16 pm at 2:16 pm |
  24. Silence Dogoode

    If you want to go back to your roots MA...you will vote for Brown

    If you vote for the democraps you are voting for the party of racial discriminaltion, and constitutional killing...

    January 18, 2010 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  25. Maureen

    We live in MA and for the last 4 days we have had the "benefit" of about 20 robocalls/ opinion polls and outright abuse by the Brown for Senator campaign on a daily basis. It is not only totally obnoxious, but I can't imagine how costly it is. Scott Brown should have given the money he spent or should I say all the Repbulican PACs from out of state should have sent their money to Haiti. If nothing else, I am fired up to go to the polls to vote against him because of the abuse of my private home.

    January 18, 2010 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
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