January 18th, 2010
11:51 AM ET
11 years ago

Rothenberg gives Brown the edge

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/01/14/art.sbrown0114.gi.jpg caption="The non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat."]Washington (CNN) - Less than 24 hours before Massachusetts voters head to the polls, the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report is predicting that Republican Scott Brown will win the special election Tuesday to fill the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's Senate seat.

On late Monday morning, Rothenberg changed his prediction from "Toss up" to "Lean Takeover" in favor of the Massachusetts Republican.

"While special elections often come down to turnout – and they therefore are more difficult to predict than normal elections – the combination of public and private survey research and anecdotal information now strongly suggests that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in tomorrow's race to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's seat," Rothenberg wrote on his Web site.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report has the race rated as a "Toss up," but notes in its analysis of the race that "we put a finger on the scale for Brown."

Follow Mark Preston on Twitter: @prestoncnn

Filed under: Martha Coakley • Scott Brown
soundoff (127 Responses)
  1. Clifford in New York

    I'm a New Yorker from the "other" great Liberal state and I PROUDLY made two campaign contributions to Scott Brown! Go get'em Scott!

    January 18, 2010 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
  2. Larry

    It' s incredible that Brown even has a chance in the significantly left leaning state of MA. Just ponder what's going to happen in November 2010 in those "fly over states". Obama has misread his election – yes the left want socialism but the vast majority of American's are appalled at Obama's tactic's in the House and Senate to ram Obama-care down our throats. All Hell will break loose throughout this country if Brown wins and Obama-care passes using the reconcillation process. It will be the last piece of legislation that Obama will pass – and, you can bet the march will be on to repeal the legislation ASAP. Obama's union thugs, ACORN mercenaries, and marxist Czar's will wilt against the will and anger of the electorate. The backlash is coming, and much sooner that most expected!

    January 18, 2010 02:22 pm at 2:22 pm |
  3. Dimslie

    It's interesting to look at the difference in the general outlook of the political parties. The Republicans want to turn tail and run at the first hint that the voters may disapprove of something they stand for. The Democrats are about to lose Ted Kennedy's Senate seat and the thought that America doesn't like what they're doing never even crosses their minds.

    January 18, 2010 02:22 pm at 2:22 pm |
  4. TexasJack

    Thank God. Let's get all the Kennedy influence out of Washington.

    January 18, 2010 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  5. Kate in SW Fla

    Well, Scott Brown is no favorite of the Republican right, but they see him as someone who will tow the Party of NO line. In a primary, none of them would support him. However, they learned from the Owens debacle that sometimes it is better to hold your nose and vote against the party you dislike the most. The problem for the Democrats, and for Obama, is Nancy Pelosi. I am a lifelong Democrat, from a family of lifelong democrats and I can tell you, I hate that woman and her left wing cabal. They hijacked a moderate to slghtly left of center agenda and now they have ruined everything. The country wanted moderate change, they did NOT want liberal! The Republicans played this beautifully, if the intnet was to take over, and heck with citizens. they refused to work together, threatening their moderates to DARE and work with Obama, forcing him to work more with the left. What choice did he have? He is not a liberal, like that crazy lady is. Look at his foreign policy, the area that HE gets to create and run, more or less. When she refused his moderate, bi=partisan, effective stimulus he should have told her then, my way or no way. Send me sonething different and I will veto it. He did not, now his agenda is over before we even got started. Energy Independence? Dead. Green Jobs? Dead. Environment issues? Dead. Financial Reform? Dead. Education Reform? Dead. Hope of ever having bi-partisan cooperation on anything ever again? DEAD, DEAD, DEAD.

    January 18, 2010 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  6. Daniel from Mass

    How dare we vote for Brown? Because Brown does believe in Health care for all but on a state level he voted for universal care in my state, brown does support non-denial of Preexisting conditions. I don't think you out of staters get it. If Brown moved to North Carolina he would be a democrat.

    Brown is an independent minded moderate republican who on social issues tends left. He's perfect for our state and I will be voting for him tomorrow.

    Plain and simple Coakley did not earn my vote, she said she didn't see the point in going out and shaking the hands of strangers, she actually said that in a Newspaper interview. She didn't think she needed to earn my vote now she lost it.

    January 18, 2010 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  7. Debby

    This is great news I hope he gets in. As far as the healthcare bill you still have to pay to get insurance. The Dems. only say affordable healthcare so whats affordable. Its not like the Dems. are going for universal where everyone pays through taxes like the Europeans and Canadians do.

    January 18, 2010 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  8. Anonymous

    goly it's humurous to see the dem zealots fall to pieces trying to blame everythuing and everybody but themselves for this... It's more evidence (not that we need it) that these naive idealists not only have no realistic view of reality, but that their idealistic prejudices will always trump the facts, no matter how forcefully the real world rubs them in their faces.

    January 18, 2010 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
  9. Four and The Door

    mario ca. January 18th, 2010 12:35 pm ET

    How can you pay more for less care, plus big corp. are ready to deny anyone with previous illness, how dare can you vote for a GOP party of NO
    The GOP Health Care Reform would lower costs and still get full coverage. The Democrats proposal raises costs even higher. I think everyone should say no to that.

    January 18, 2010 02:36 pm at 2:36 pm |
  10. Torch

    I love this, bunch of Liberals on suicide watch.

    I just hope if Brown does win (provided the DEMS, don't stuff the ballot box). That Obama will really look inside himself and give up on all this Liberal Utopia garbage and start moving towards the center.

    January 18, 2010 02:36 pm at 2:36 pm |
  11. Catty

    The bleeding heart liberals on this sight make me laugh....Why don't we just wait for the results before we start our predicitons of doom and gloom.

    Also, for those in MA, they already have their own healthcare system, so it's not about getting another one from the federal gov't. They just don't want to pay more so the people of Nebraska can be covered on their dime.

    January 18, 2010 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  12. gary davis harbor oregon

    its a joke for anyone on this blog to still beleive a purist republican would do anything for the american people . they are proof that the purity republican party is all about big business CEO'S not america . so you few idiots that want Brown . if you get him into office you might as well bend over and give him everything , maybe you and the rst of the republican purist can move to ALASKA with Palin the terrorist and claim the state as a country . and stay there . but when you go broke from raping everyone . come on back we will bail you out .. dip sticks ..
    stupid is as stupid does Purist republicans ..\
    and the president is doing a great job . not what the republican administration did for 8 years rip us off . and lie every day .. so go away and let america recover from the lies and threats of the party of NO !

    January 18, 2010 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  13. Albo58

    It's like music to my ears to hear the Dimwits whining about their "hope and change" coming to a suddent stop! For the last year, we have witnessed the outrageous spending that has merely flushed tax dollars down the drain and these sheeple can't figure out why we've had enough!

    January 18, 2010 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  14. Daniel from Mass

    All of you that want Universal care so much and have Democratic dominated legislatures. My question is why have you not passed it your own state. You do know this country is made up of separates states it's not a monolithic country. You do what you do and let me do what I do.

    When it comes to Hitler and Stalin yes we are United we are one people but when there is not we are 50 separate little countries that work together for financial reasons. I think you all should read the COTUS, their are state lines for a reason

    January 18, 2010 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  15. Dave

    The irony is great. This should have been a seat appointed by the governor because of Teddy's death. Alas, the Democrats were scared Romney would appoint a Republican a few years back so they changed the law that said we get a special election, the governor can not appoint someone.

    Keep changing the rules and the voting districts and your positions... eventually the people will WAKE UP and VOTE YOU OUT!

    January 18, 2010 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  16. Debbie in VA

    What is really amazing about all of this are the Dems who are blaming Fox News, CNN, Republicans, tea bag movement, and the pollsters for the mess that is coming out of DC. It's the back door deals with unions and vote buying in Nebraska and Louisiana. And those are the sickening deals that have been blatant. How much else has gone on in those closed sessions.

    January 18, 2010 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  17. sifto77

    and the libs say palin is dumb! yankee fan, indeed!

    January 18, 2010 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  18. lnburton

    SCOTT BROWN!!!!!!

    January 18, 2010 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  19. Objective Thinking

    Scott Brown:

    1) Spent last Monday night campaigning by shaking hands with people on the streets.
    2) Reminded everyone that the seat in contention is not the Kennedy's seat, not the Democrat's seat, but THE PEOPLE'S seat.
    3) Raised money online, getting donations that averaged to $77 a donation, indicating his donations are from middle class people.
    4) Has run a positive campaign.

    Martha Coakley:

    1) Spent last Monday night campaigning by attending a fundraiser where DRUG COMPANY and HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANY LOBBYISTS were filling up the seats, each paying at least $10,000 to attend.
    2) Later that night she watched from three feet away while Meehan pushed down a right-wing reporter, helped up the reporter, and then repeated and aggressively pushed up on the reporter. Then later she said she was "not privy to the facts" even though there is a video online proving that she saw it from three feet away! (Search for it on YouTube... search the words "Coakley", "Meehan" and "reporter".)
    3) Convicted innocent people as an Attorney General, and then later tried to hinder the progress of the Innocence Project, which is dedicated to freeing wrongly convicted innocent people. Also, one man was proven innocent after 18 years in jail and she tried to keep him in jail another 4 years.
    4) Went easy on the son of one of her financial contributors when that son was convicted of raping a 23-month old niece of his. Then she lobbied to give him a no-cash bail.
    5) Has stated that there are no al Qaeda terrorists left in Afghanistan. When a reporter later asked if she stood by her statement, she turned her head, ignored the question, and asked if anyone else had a question.
    6) Has run a negative campaign.

    The only reason to vote for Martha Coakley is if you are a blind sheep who cannot see past the (D) by her name, or the (R) by her opponent's name.

    January 18, 2010 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  20. Kingsley Obiora

    What did all these analysts say before the 2008 New Hampshire Primary? Let's wait until Tuesday evening.

    January 18, 2010 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  21. Ken

    And this is why we can never get anything done in government that isn't laced with money. Bush made us so divided as a country that people would vote someone in just to stop the President from getting anything done. Compromise is one thing but if Brown gets in then that's it. More years of nothing getting done causing the country to falter in a time it is starting to get back on their feet.

    Why? Mainly cause of the false and negative push against a health care bill. I tell you that most people have believe what they are being told by their party rather than researching it. Hell, most don't even know what Socialist means.

    But get your government hand off my medicare.

    January 18, 2010 02:49 pm at 2:49 pm |
  22. Julia - Native American from Idaho

    If The republicans win, this country is going to hell, and the republicans are providing the hand-basket. So this is Democracy, I don't think so. Republicans are fascist anyway you look at their policies, re-visit Nazi Germany's history.

    January 18, 2010 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  23. spencer blair

    Deals for votes from Louisiana and Nebraska. Union tax exemptions. Horse-trading on Capitol Hill. People saw the sausage being made and decided they didn't like it. Now the sausage-makers have to pay.

    Everyone voted for change...apparently the first thing they changed was their minds.

    January 18, 2010 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  24. fdohlin

    MA = Brown State !!

    January 18, 2010 02:55 pm at 2:55 pm |
  25. Jordan

    Here in Massachusetts everyone I know, everyone, is so fed up
    with the bribery and arm twisting of the Obama admin and the
    politics as usual gang of good old boys, that they are going to the polls to elect Senator Brown. He is a man of the people not the elite or the Chicago type thugs!
    If they can be prevented from signing a check for hundreds of billions of dollars (or a trillion plus) to screw up healthcare of most Americans to fix what is broken for a few – then we need the Scott Brown's to stand tall for the average family.

    January 18, 2010 02:55 pm at 2:55 pm |
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