September 2nd, 2010
10:00 AM ET
12 years ago

New prediction in battle for the House

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption="A new forecast predicts Republicans will pick up 47 House seats."]Washington (CNN) - It's the biggest guessing game in this town: Will the Republicans pick up enough House seats in November's midterm elections to win back control of the chamber?

A new forecast out Thursday says yes. University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato estimates that Republicans will pick up 47 House seats in November, eight more than the 39 seats the GOP needs to reclaim the House. How Barack Obama Became Mr. Unpopular

"2010 was always going to be a Republican year," writes Sabato, "but conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd."

Two of the best known non-partisan political handicappers in the nation's capitol also point towards major gains by the Republicans. The Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of 35 to 45 seats by Republicans, "with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome."

CNN Radio Political Notebook:

And the Rothenberg Political Report estimates "GOP gains of 28-33 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats are quite possible."

There are 61 days left till the midterms. Stay tuned!

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn

Filed under: 2010
soundoff (125 Responses)
  1. Rob Johnson

    If this is true, then it seems the Democrats won't lose more than 9 seats in the Senate, thereby retaining control of that wing of Congress.

    Therefore, even if the GOP does take the House, they are dreaming if they think they are going to come in and overturn everything Obama has done in the past two years.

    For better or worse, the real battle is 2012. Republicans won't have any real power until then at the soonest.

    September 2, 2010 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  2. Peter s

    wake me up when the circus is over!!

    September 2, 2010 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  3. Reality Walking

    Blah, blah, blah. The problem with this forecast is that Democrats didn't cause the rotten economy but they have tried to fix it. Republicans on the other hand have offered ZERO ideas to fix the economy and they have fought to derail anyone else's attempts to fix the economy.

    If they think that Americans are stupid enough to give them control back they are delusional.

    September 2, 2010 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  4. scott

    my prodiction is if the republicans regain the house they will impeach president obama and he will win a second term because the republican will over reach and investigate this president!

    September 2, 2010 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  5. Dave

    So much for hope and change. Look forward to two years of argument, stonewalling (even more than now if that is possible), meaningless investigations, useless committee hearings, etc. if the republicans take the house.

    I am so tired of this as I am sure all Americans are. The house and senate are broke; the tea party and their crazy members are not the answer. Crazies in both parties have moderates on the run and for independents like myself and my wife voting comes down to the lesser of two very bad evils.

    You really can't blame anyone decent for not running for office anymore. If they have any little blimp on their personal radar it is blown way out of proportion and they and their family are drug through the mud. Who would want to subject anyone to that mess? Not me. No wonder we get idiots like Rand Paul, Joe Miller and Sharon Angle. Everyone else is smart enough to say no to our political process.

    I shiver at the mess we will be in one year from now when the party of Bachmann becomes the majority in the house.

    September 2, 2010 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  6. RichieSlammer

    Tired of Odummer and his minions ruining our Country. Sorry Dems put I plan on pulling every Republican lever that I can get my hands on and alot of people who are fed up will do the same. Its the talk on everyones vocab right now!!!!

    September 2, 2010 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  7. Ed L

    So stupid Americans will vote back in the Fascist Prohibitionists... Ya that'll be better....

    September 2, 2010 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  8. Robert

    I don't believe that for one minute. Looking forward to the midterms and continued Democratic governance for the good of this country. Why would we want to go backwards after years of Republican leadership and decline? The American people are too smart for that.

    September 2, 2010 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  9. inofritzn

    In other news, obama mama bahitchama, CNN and MSNBC all checked into therapy today.

    September 2, 2010 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  10. Republicans is smart in the head area

    So this isn't even based on yet another poll, but on the opinion of one "handicapper" – in other words, a complete guess. Great reporting CNN!

    September 2, 2010 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  11. Jimbo (the real one)

    Not sure why this is such a big deal. Regardless of who controls congress there will still be gridlock. President Obama has already gotten every one of his major intiatives passed and he retains veto power over any legilation the GOP tries to ram through (although they seem to be pretty devoid of ideas these days).

    September 2, 2010 11:26 am at 11:26 am |
  12. FM

    What I hear is only the gains for republicans. Does this mean they are not going to lose not a single seat. If one gains and lose at the same time the result is, going back where you were at the first place!

    September 2, 2010 11:26 am at 11:26 am |
  13. e.c.coleman

    Why would anyone be surprised at this Republican surge???

    Democrats did it to themselves, especially with pelosi and reid and the takeover of GM by obama, plus the housting fiasco and banking, plus,
    pushing and shoving obamacare down the throats of Americans.
    70% against this program and the jerks pass it anyway????

    These Dems are just like obama, dictatorial and one-minded for power, power, power. pelosi as the leader of the house was poison because of her inadequacy and lack of intelligence.
    "We'll just have to pass the Bill to find out what is in it."
    The Healthcare Bill was not even READ by House Members????

    Please. This is not Government. Dems are a farce and a fraud.

    Of course, Dems will lose in November!

    September 2, 2010 11:26 am at 11:26 am |
  14. Willa-PA

    Becareful what you wish for. It has only been 17 months for this president to turn things around from the eight years that brought us to this point.

    " Learn the art of patience. Apply discipline to your thoughts when they become anxious over the outcome of a goal. Impatience breeds anxiety, fear, discouragement and failure. Patience creates confidence, decisiveness and a rational outlook, which eventually leads to success.

    ~ Brian Adams

    September 2, 2010 11:26 am at 11:26 am |
  15. james roberts

    Republican control democratic control won't chage America's outcome.

    The country is spiraling downward financially, and IMF and World Bank will mandate fiscal reform.

    When it comes, no sacred cows will stand.

    September 2, 2010 11:29 am at 11:29 am |
  16. Amar

    The republicans have broken the record for number of filibusters under the Obama Adminstration. PEOPLE NEED TO THINK ABOUT THIS. It means they're willing to not support anything the president does. It's perfect bait and switch – obstruct or water down Obama's legislation, then complain that he's not getting anything done. Disgusting, broken system.

    If the republicans get control of congress, progress will come to HALT. They'll submit ridiculous proposals that Obama will have to veto.

    Plus, who wants a [narcissistic] Speaker Boehner? He's proven to be strictly partisan. He doesn't care about anyone but himself.

    They don't CARE about legislation. It's interesting to see them come up with an idea, but once Obama decides to support it, all of a sudden they oppose it. It's ALL politics – and that's why there needs to be TERM LIMITS for ALL offices.

    And that's why democrats need to maintain control of the congress. For the sake of progress.


    September 2, 2010 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  17. Vic of New York

    Be careful what you wish....

    Let's see what the Mutants will bring to Washington.

    September 2, 2010 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  18. NC Ex-Pub

    Well, I haven't been called; but, here is one ex-repub-now registered independent-voter, who has seen enough of the lunatic fringe the tee-baggers are promoting (Paul, Miller, Angle, etc) to change my vote to Democrats. I realize I am only one, but, I can't help but think others are going to wake up.

    September 2, 2010 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  19. althea hayes

    when you blame everything short of the fall of freedom in the US on the President and Congress, I am quite sure that people would be unhappy with the present administration. What I would like to know where was all this anger when people were getting laid off a few years ago? The Income Tax breaks that big corporations received and the VERY rich has that trickled down to the Middle Class? So therfore there is less money coming into the economy but you will NEVER hear that from the BECKS,LIMBAUGHS because that will cut into their pockets.So people really THINK when you want to blame someone do your homework and think that the US did not get this way in ONE YEAR.

    September 2, 2010 11:31 am at 11:31 am |
  20. mightyfudge

    I love the midterms. Now we find out if Mr. Obama is a politician, a president or both. Two months to go...

    September 2, 2010 11:31 am at 11:31 am |
  21. Gale

    Maybe if the Democrats quit attacking and blaming everything on Bush, and spewing their hatred of Sarah Palin and anyone else that has the audacity to disagree with their leader they might be able to do the country some good, instead of adding coals to the fire of hatred and racism in our country.

    September 2, 2010 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  22. RichA

    Good for the Republicans!! Democrats are clearly unfocused and bankrupting the U.S.

    September 2, 2010 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  23. Jim

    Let me tell you something about polling. It's in-accurate. They choose 1000 people at random, and ask them who they might vote for. Well, that sample size, compared to the voting public, is completely out of whack. In the 25 years I have been voting, I have NEVER been polled. So, don't buy into the headlines meant to sell stories.

    September 2, 2010 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  24. Chris

    Dems will be fine, they won't lose the House or Senate

    September 2, 2010 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
  25. T'SAH from Virginia

    It's the SAME OLD prediction CNN – Praise the RepubliCAN'Ts so much to where they get FREE commercials!!!

    September 2, 2010 11:34 am at 11:34 am |
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