September 8th, 2010
04:12 PM ET
12 years ago

CNN/Time Poll: All tied up in California races

[cnn-photo-caption image= caption=" It's neck and neck in California's Senate and gubernatorial battles, according to a new poll."]

(CNN) - It's too close to call in California's Senate and gubernatorial battles, according to a new poll.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday indicates that Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a 48 percent to 44 percent margin over her Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, but Boxer's 4-point advantage is within the poll's sampling error. Five percent of people questioned say if the general election were held today they'd vote for neither candidate and three percent were undecided.

Full results (pdf)

"In a battle between two women, female voters will be a key constituency. Right now, 48 percent of women would pick Boxer compared to 43 percent for Fiorina. Six years ago, Boxer won 65 percent of the women's vote," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

"The suburban vote has always been important in California, and it looks like that's the home of the California swing voter this year as well," adds Holland. "Boxer piles up a 19-point lead in urban areas and Fiorina has a 27-point advantage in rural California. Among suburban voters, the two are running fairly evenly, with 48 percent of the suburbs currently saying they would choose Fiorina and 44 percent picking Boxer."

According to the poll, Whitman has a two-point advantage over Brown, 48 to 46 percent. Whitman's two point margin is well within survey's sampling error.

"Both candidates come from the Bay Area - Oakland for Brown and the Silicon Valley for Whitman," says Holland. "But Brown is the one with the home field advantage in the Bay Area. He has a 51 percent to 43 percent margin among Bay Area voters. Whitman has a similar edge among voters in Southern California and the Central Valley."

The survey indicates that Whitman holds a five point margin over Brown among independents.

"The gender gap means that women usually vote Democratic, but female voters are evenly divided between Brown and Whitman. That may be due to some women choosing a female candidate over a male, depriving Brown of the traditional level of support from that key group," adds Holland.

Whitman is the billionaire former CEO of Ebay. She's spent more than $110 million of her own money on her campaign. Brown, who served as California governor for two terms in the 1970's and 1980's, is currently the state's attorney general.

The winner of November's general election will succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted September 2-7, with 866 registered voters in California conducted September 2-7. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

- CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this story

Filed under: Barbara Boxer • California • Carly Fiorina • CNN Polls • Jerry Brown • Meg Whitman • Polls
soundoff (17 Responses)
  1. ME

    I can't wait to see Republicans finally take over California and get rid of these Berkeley type nutcases who are destroying the state. I wish the choices were less progressive type Republicans and more fiscal conservative types. I would REALLY LOVE to see a Libertarian takeover so we can have freedom AND money.

    September 8, 2010 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  2. Eric

    Rasmussen polling of LIKELY voters, with leaners, has Fiorina up, 48% to 47%.

    Remove leaners and Fiorina clobbers the Boxer by five points, 47% to 42%.

    2010 is NOT looking good for the neo-communists, even in the People's Republic of California.

    September 8, 2010 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  3. Cynthia Gottfredson

    It is about time for a Woman Gov!!!!!

    September 8, 2010 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  4. Marie MD

    fiorina almost bankrupted HP. She was "fired" and made millions of dollars for being fired.
    Has anyone who has been laid off gotten millions for quitting a job they didn't do properly?
    I didn't think so. fiorina is bad for CA. Like they don't have enough problems.

    September 8, 2010 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  5. Sniffit

    "She's spent more than $110 million of her own money on her campaign"

    Disgusting. Truly disgusting. 'nuff sed

    September 8, 2010 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  6. Louisiana Man

    Yes, a billionaire who ran E-bay for years and had no apology when they screwed their clients and raised fees.

    When asked about the increases in prices when no logical explanation could justify them-Whitman basic response was "thats what we do".

    Yea, enrich your bottom line and screw the citizens that scratch daily for a descent ? wadge.

    This a front runner of what you will be dished out in Kal-e-fornia if Whitman and pals get elected.

    Wasn't the blow from Enron on the utility wattage scam punishment enough?

    Schwarzenegger and upper brass from Enron was in on the plot.
    Bush and buddies deregulated utility guidelines and Enron waiting with bated breath-zeroed in on the kill.

    These elitist morons ignore the everyday struggle of the common folk-
    they will lick you up for a vote then discard the remains.

    September 8, 2010 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  7. Jeff Clemetson of San Diego

    If Whitman really cared for CA, she would have put 110 million into charter schools rather than a gamble to make herself powerful. I wonder who she plans on greasing her pockets to recoup her money IF she's elected – oil to kill the green economy that's building in the state? PG&E to kill the independent electric companies that CA voters overwhelmingly voted to approve? insurance companies that tried to force service members to buy policies even when they are overseas fighting? There are a bevy of special interests that have tried to screw our state through initiatives that failed at the polls, but a conservative with the power to pass laws may just be their meal ticket. Whether or not you like Brown, Whitman is just plain too scary.

    September 8, 2010 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  8. Nellie Bly

    I look at Meg Whitman and all I see is actor Toby Jones, Infamous.

    September 8, 2010 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  9. Republican Tea party gone wild!!

    California you are smarter than a Teabaggers! Vote Democrats!!!!!!

    September 8, 2010 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  10. annie s

    Fiorina was a failed CEO who was among the first to outsource American jobs to India. Whitman never even voted before deciding she wanted to buy the Governor's office. Heaven help us.

    September 8, 2010 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  11. T'SAH from Virginia

    Yep – another POLL tied!!!???? Do you think more Democrats are being polled now??? Maybe???

    Two polls on one page TIED??? I thought the Democrats were the REAL underDOGS (yes, that DOG word again that was abused because President Obama decided to mention a 'figure of speech' that took its toll with the RepubliCAN'Ts).

    DEMOCRATS – Make your CASE – UNITE the BASE and win this RACE in November!!!! Yes We Can!!

    September 8, 2010 05:18 pm at 5:18 pm |
  12. eric in Denver

    If a poll by Time and CNN has a republican within 10% there is a good chance the republican is actually ahead. Time is about as fair and balanced as the New York Slimes. Miss Boxer is all done.

    September 8, 2010 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  13. Rick in AZ

    There must be a hellava lot of graft and kickbacks in CA to spend 110 millions of ones own money. Do you think she can get that back in her first term or will she need to be re-elected to turn a profit?

    September 8, 2010 05:25 pm at 5:25 pm |
  14. Troy

    I want to personally thank Meg Whitman for screwing up eBay. She systemically raised fees and made doing my business on eBay non-profitable. I was forced to invest in my own website to run my eStore and now make 5 times more than I ever dreamed of making on eBay.

    September 8, 2010 05:26 pm at 5:26 pm |
  15. Debbie

    *Born and raised in California and have voted every year. More than Whitman or Fiorina can say. Whitman is worse than Fiorina here who only voted 40% of the time in Federal elections. Non voters don't deserve any vote.
    *Both have voted to outsource California jobs. Fiorina is worse here. It's the outsourcing of American jobs that has killed commerce in America. Their actions at Ebay and HP prove their actions towards Californian's...outsource.
    *Why would two people who are suppose to be great CEO's not have jobs now? Why would two people with that much money want a job that would be peanuts to them? They don't have jobs because truth is they were horrible CEO's...ask the shareholders of Ebay or HP. Why do they want the job? Proof is by their past lack of actions is not a love of California but their love of money.
    *The love of money is the root of all evil and Fiorina and Whitman haved pledged their allegiance to the almighty dollar. Or foreign dollar as that is who they support.

    September 8, 2010 05:35 pm at 5:35 pm |
  16. Me

    We need more polls
    Polls tell us what to think
    Who needs to know who, what, when and where when you have a polls.
    I know when I hear the phone ring, I hope to GoD it's a pollster so I can make the news!
    Why vote when the Polls will tell you who will win

    September 8, 2010 05:38 pm at 5:38 pm |
  17. dot

    Most of these comments are from outside of CA which means nothing. Until you have lived in CA and unfortunate enough to experience the Brown and Boxer failures that drove CA to its current condition, you will never understand why anything breathing can do a better job than these two clowns. Both heavily supported by unions. It cost CA over $200k to keep a fireman! My CEO boss doesn't make that.

    September 8, 2010 05:39 pm at 5:39 pm |