September 8th, 2010
04:13 PM ET
11 years ago

CNN/Time Poll: KY Senate race all tied up

[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/05/20/art.paul.cnn.jpg caption =" A new poll indicates that the battle for Kentucky's open Senate seat is dead even."]

(CNN) - A new poll indicates that the battle for Kentucky's open Senate seat is dead even.

According to a new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey of registered voters in Kentucky, 46 percent support Republican nominee Rand Paul, with an equal amount saying they back Democratic nominee Jack Conway. Five percent of those questioned say they'd vote for neither candidate if the general election were held today, and four percent have no opinion.

Full results (pdf)

"Not surprisingly, Paul is winning among conservatives by more than 40 points," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But Conway has a 22-point advantage among moderates."

Paul holds an 11 point advantage among independent voters, according to the survey.

Paul, an eye surgeon and the son of former GOP presidential hopeful and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, defeated Kentucky Sec. of State Trey Grayson in a divisive primary. Paul enjoyed the support of many in Tea Party movement, while Grayson was backed by many establishment Republicans.

Conway, Kentucky's attorney general, topped Lt. Governor Don Mongiardo in a bitter primary contest.

The winner will succeed Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who is retiring at the end of the year.

Kentucky is considered a red state. Sen. John McCain topped then Sen. Barack Obama by 16 points in the state in the 2008 presidential election and George W. Bush took Kentucky by 20 points in his 2004 re-election.

"The area around Lexington and Frankfort in the central part of the state looks like it will be the real battleground in Kentucky this year," Holland adds. "The two candidates are essentially tied there - 47 percent for Paul and 45 percent for Conway."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted September 2-7, with 869 registered voters in Kentucky questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report


Filed under: CNN Polls • Jack Conway • Kentucky • Polls • Rand Paul
soundoff (44 Responses)
  1. yarrrr

    But, Paul would be ahead in likely voters...

    September 8, 2010 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  2. leo PA

    you have to be kidding me .............................

    September 8, 2010 04:22 pm at 4:22 pm |
  3. Eric

    Still polling "Registered" voters? Not likely voters?

    Yeah, no wonder you're so far off.

    Rasmussen has Paul up today by 15 points, at 54%.

    It's game, set, match for the Kentucky race... and once again, CNN is hopelessly, cluelessly late and lost on this one, too.

    With such poor methodology, you guys are simply going to be astounded on November 2, especially by the wide margin GOP victories... big enough that even Obama/ACORN/cemetary-canvassing won't matter.

    September 8, 2010 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  4. Rob

    Nobody believes this poll CNN.

    A poll by SurveyUSA released on Sunday showed Rand Paul winning by 15%.

    A poll by Rasmussen released today showed the same thing, Rand by 15%.

    September 8, 2010 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  5. Andy

    Paul has managed to keep a pretty low profile. No doubt his handlers were getting a little nervous with all his verbal crack-pottery. He can't hide forever. The more people hear about his views, the lower his favorability will be. This isn't just about Kentucky, this wingnut, if elected will have an influence on federal legislation. All it takes is a few pauls and angles to really screw this country beyond belief. It would be a giant step backwards for this country if kooks like that get into our government on a federal level.

    September 8, 2010 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  6. saftgek

    Rand Paul would be an excellent match with the Party of No. His radical spewings are consistent with the "leadership" of the Party. Mr. Paul would bolster the ranks of those who've declared war on the citizenry of the U.S. via their continual pouting over the election of President Obama.

    Oh, for a fairy with a magic wand. One swipe through the air could temper the hearts and minds of the GOP, their self-serving attitudes, and their disregarding the common good in favor of themselves and their ultra-rich special interests.

    September 8, 2010 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  7. billy

    Rand Paul is a nut-job. Keep him far away from Congress, Kentucky.

    September 8, 2010 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  8. Anonymous

    hire a new polling firm your numbers are way off.

    September 8, 2010 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  9. Marie MD

    They must be drinking a lot of moonshine in KY if they really and truly think this paul guy.
    His father sounds more sane but this guy is another loose cannon of the teabagging kind.
    And yes, please get a haircut.

    September 8, 2010 04:41 pm at 4:41 pm |
  10. water bearer

    This is the important take away from this article, folks:

    "Kentucky is considered a red state"

    A red state where the Democratic candidate is now tied in the polls with the darling of the TeaPublicans. The more exposure the national press gives the extremist views of these TeaPublicans, the better the Democrats are going to look to rational voters. I have a word of advice for all of the TeaPublicans who have been foaming at the mouth about the recent polls being spun into predictions of disaster for the Democrats:

    Those who count their chickens before they're hatched often end up with egg on their face!

    September 8, 2010 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  11. Bill C

    It's only among registered voters. So it's +5 to +7 for Paul as turnout actual turnout goes to Republicans. This year it will be more.

    September 8, 2010 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  12. Sniffit

    Anyone who votes for the Randroid IS a "moderate"...moderately retarded that is. Seriously, does he go to the same hair dresser as Trafficant? I think she goes by the name of Bobo...house on the corner with the trailer on cinder blocks in the front yard? Yeah, that's the one....cuts their hair with garden sheers while wearing nothing put peyote paste and a bonnet.

    September 8, 2010 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  13. gt

    sorry.. big mo is on the gop side.... and big mo is not a happy camper..

    September 8, 2010 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  14. Duck Fallas

    Is Paul really that nuts that KENTUCKIANS think he's crazy?

    September 8, 2010 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  15. John

    Anybody that would vote for Rand Paul is dumb as a box of rock.

    September 8, 2010 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  16. PatriotX

    SurveryUSA 9/6/2010 Paul 55% – Conway 40%
    Rassmussen 9/8/2010 Paul 54% – Conway 39%

    Nice try, CNN/Time.

    September 8, 2010 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  17. Randolph Carter, I'm no expert, but...

    Eric September 8th, 2010 4:24 pm ET
    ".....With such poor methodology, you guys are simply going to be astounded on November 2, especially by the wide margin GOP victories... big enough that even Obama/ACORN/cemetary-canvassing won't matter."

    Uh, you do realize that ACORN no longer exists, don't you? They were taken out by lying republicans. When it was all found out to be a setup, it was too late, ACORN had been de-funded. That's all you neoclowns have left, dirty tricks. You're pathetic. Have a nice day!

    September 8, 2010 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  18. Randolph Carter, I'm no expert, but...

    If Rand wants to win in KY, he should promise tax breaks for starting a meth lab. Have a nice day!

    September 8, 2010 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  19. T'SAH from Virginia

    Why all of a sudden all of the RACES are TIED???? Hmm, could it be that the RepubliCAN'Ts woke up the "SLEEPING GIANT"???

    Yes, it will be an upset in November – NO more NOnsense, NO more NOthings – NO more RepubliCAN'Ts!!

    September 8, 2010 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  20. Ted

    amazing that Steele, Boner, McConnell, Cantor and the rest of the mainline repukelicans are standing by with their thumbs up their butts while their party goes down the drain with jerks like Rand Paul. What a dumb name.

    Vote straight ticket Democrats and don't turn the country over to the delusionary tea baggers.

    September 8, 2010 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  21. Republican Tea party gone wild!!

    Way to go Kentucky, Vote for Democrat Jack Conway!!!

    September 8, 2010 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  22. Irma in North Carolina

    If they send this racits nut to the white house, they have been down in in the coal mines and have their head buried in the coal.

    September 8, 2010 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  23. annie s

    Okay. I finally decided conservatives are all insane. Someone would actually vote for the nut ob Rand??

    September 8, 2010 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  24. Marty, FL

    It is beyond comprehension how any decent person could consider Rand Paul's extremist positions for public office. Rand supports overturning constitutionally protected civil rights, demolishing EPA protections, no oversight of the BP disaster, allowing businesses to discriminate against the disabled, etc.

    Seriously.

    Jack Conway is by far the better the choice, as indicated by his substantial lead amongst moderates from the political middle where real governing takes place.

    September 8, 2010 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  25. USA

    FYI Rasmussen has Paul up by 13%. I love the arrogance of the dems thinking they will keep the house and senate. 1994 is going to look like a good year compared to the pasting they are going to take this year. I think 60 seats will be a pretty good estimate at this point. If the economy doesn't get better over the next 7-8 weeks it could be 75 seats in the house. The senate will be very close but I think the republicans will have the majority. It is not republican vs democrats anymore it is republicans vs socialism and I think America is upset with the dems going way to the left closer to socialism.

    September 8, 2010 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
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