[cnn-photo-caption image= http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/18/art.paterson.0313.gi.jpg caption ="The ulimate winner of the NY gubernatorial race will succeed Gov. David Paterson, above, who dropped his bid for a full term earlier this year. "](CNN) – The battle for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in New York is a dead heat, according to a new poll out Saturday.
A new Siena College survey shows former Rep. Rick Lazio holding a 1-point lead over businessman Carl Paladino, 43-42 percent, ahead of Tuesday's primary.
Pollster Steven Greenberg said the race will ultimately depend on who turns out where.
“A heavier than normal Republican turnout upstate will likely hand the nomination to Paladino, who leads upstate 53-32 percent, while a heavier than normal downstate suburban turnout will likely make Lazio the Republican nominee, as he leads there 55-30 percent,” he said.
The winner will take on state Attorney Gen. Andrew Cuomo, the favorite in a general election matchup against either Republican.
The poll, conducted September 7-9, surveyed 610 likely Republican voters by telephone and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.