October 6th, 2010
04:36 PM ET
12 years ago

CNN/Time Poll: Blunt up 53-40 percent over Carnahan

(CNN) - Rep. Roy Blunt holds a double digit lead over Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan in the state's Senate battle, according to a new poll.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday indicates that 53 percent of likely voters support the seven term Republican congressman, with four in ten backing Carnahan, the Democrat's nominee, in a fight between two of Missouri's leading political dynasties.

Full results (pdf)

According to the poll, Carnahan is leading overwhelmingly among Democrats, while Blunt leads overwhelmingly among Republican and holds a 56 to 33 percent advantage over Carnahan among independent voters. Carnahan leads by eight points in the St. Louis area, while Blunt is up by 18 points in the Kansas City region. The two appear to be splitting the northern part of the state while Blunt is up by a more than two to one margin in southern part of Missouri.

The survey also suggests a strong income gap and a problem for Carnahan among women voters.

"Carnahan does 20 points better among lower-income voters than among those who make more than $50,000," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

"She wins a 53 percent majority among the lower-income group but only 33 percent among the higher-income voters. That gap is bigger than the gender gap or generation gap in the Missouri race this year."

That's not to say that gender doesn't matter. "Roy Blunt is achieving what many Republicans can only wish for - he has nearly a majority of the women's vote in Missouri," says Holland. "Among women it's 49 percent for Blunt and just 44 percent for Carnahan. That's bad news for any Democrat, but for a Democratic woman, it's a major problem."

Other polls of likely voters conducted in the past two weeks put Blunt's lead in the single digits.

The winner in November will succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond.

The poll indicates only 34 percent of likely voters approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in the White House, with more than six in ten saying the disapprove. The president's approval rating among all adults is 37 percent, with 55 percent giving Obama a thumbs down.

"Suburban Missouri has turned against the President, particularly in the Kansas City suburbs," says Holland. "Across the state, Obama is more popular in the suburban areas around St. Louis, but even there his approval rating is just below 50 percent."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted October 1-5, with 1,503 Missouri adults, including 1,389 registered voters and 832 likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points for likely voters.

- CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

Filed under: 2010 • Missouri • Robin Carnahan • Roy Blunt
soundoff (16 Responses)
  1. Red

    This poll is off base.

    I'll be absolutely SHOCKED if the race ends up being more than 3-4% spread between the two. These ridiculous "likely voter" models need to go the way of the telegraph.

    October 6, 2010 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  2. stufthis

    Blount voted for all of Bush's unfunded programs that put us at the edge of a great depression, and voted against every program that would help Americans, including health reform, VA assistance, job creation, GI bill, extending unemployment benefits. I would hope that the "Show Me" state gets the facts before november 2, and rejects Rob Roy.

    October 6, 2010 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  3. Eric in Denver

    Two words for you Miss Carnahan "Health Care".

    October 6, 2010 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  4. heeeyyydudeee

    anyone else thought a carnahan is a smoking device and that people are smoking more blunts than carnahans?

    October 6, 2010 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  5. Marie MD

    I am looking at this picture and its obvious that the rethugs only vote for half way decent looking women. Their men could use some help though!
    blunt is one of the shrub's cronies. Someone who helped put us in the position we are in and that we are trying to crawl from.

    October 6, 2010 05:28 pm at 5:28 pm |
  6. cat

    She is really not my cup of Tea. I ask every one to PLEASE Vote..But.. PLEASE DONT VOTE REPUBLICAN OR TEA PARTY (in any form) on 02 November 2010. If the Republican leadership wins, We the people lose. because we have delivered our government into the hands of the Corporations. The people because of a few will have no power even thou it wont seem as that at first but later Laws will be passed in the name of Pro -Life. And in a twisted CONGRESS and SENATE filled with these R.I.N.O.S of the people= Traitors of the people who have sold their souls for riches or so it seems. These Corporations Will make lots of money A woman who has a miscarriage will be charged for involuntary manslaughter and she will have to prove her innocence even if it was her worries in life and the hard work SHE ENDURES she does not get paid sick leave or vacation leave and she has another child who she also must care for. Because there will be no more unions and no more laws to protect those who are not rich. Everything will be privatized and if you have no money you will die in the gutter or you will maybe die in the prisons where The Peoples tax payer dollars are being funneled into. And as the the Corporations greed increases so does the price of good and services and so will the Tax dollars you owe. They will take you social security regardless of what you say and your future generations will suffer they will have a universal privatized health care system but the peoples tax dollars wont have to pay (THAT IS THE TRICK) the people will pay out of their own pocket and if they don’t have the money they can be denied medical care. The Corporations own the Government and THE PEOPLE have no POWER. Beware of the shrinking Government.

    October 6, 2010 05:36 pm at 5:36 pm |
  7. MO Girl

    Eric in Denver wrote, “Two words for you Miss Carnahan "Health Care".”
    That is one of the many reasons this MO citizen will vote for her!

    October 6, 2010 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  8. jillib

    Blunt can be seen running like a coward from a reporter questioning foreign contributions to the chamber of commerce general fund to be used in our elections. He stated he didn't know what the reporter was talking about – he's a liar and a coward. First he refuses to debate his opponent (like so many other cowardly republicans), and then run from the media when questioned on serious issues. Anyone that runs from debating the issues doesn't deserve my vote.

    October 6, 2010 06:34 pm at 6:34 pm |
  9. Hugo

    Funny how in the prior story Democrats are up by double digits, last time I looked 13 is a double digit...just sayin' take a look at the spin....and Mo Girl, why are Dems jumping ship on healthcare if it is sooooo great. Change you can believe in is a future with 7% unemployment for the next 5 years and believe me the tax and fees are on the way.

    October 6, 2010 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  10. montag

    How the good people of Missouri could even consider re-electing Roy Blunt completely escapes me. This man is not your friend, Missourans!

    October 6, 2010 06:42 pm at 6:42 pm |
  11. Patrick from Minnesota

    Missouri can elect who they want. The Democrats will still have the 112th Congress.

    October 6, 2010 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  12. T'SAH from Virginia

    This is a RED STATE and will remain a RED STATE. President Obama's approval rating in this state is 34%!! President Obama didn't even WIN Missouri so we're not even going to STRESS over this!!! In my opinion – this is NO NEWS!!!

    DEMOCRATS in other states – keep STATING the CASE and mean it – keep UNITING the BASE and be proud of it – FORGET MO – and WIN the RACE everywhere else in November 2010!!!

    This is T'SAH from Virginia and I approve this message!!!

    October 6, 2010 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  13. blunt likes smoking blunts

    This is yet another example of uninformed stupid people voting for the republican in a race. America has really taken a downturn since the invention of the republican tea party.

    October 6, 2010 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  14. Glenn from Cary

    Shame on CNN for doctoring the photo of Roy Blunt to make him look like a smarmy goofball. OK, so he IS a smarmy goofball but emphasizing it in a photo is going too far.

    October 6, 2010 11:06 pm at 11:06 pm |
  15. Anonymous

    Why don't they conduct realistic polls? 1503 total respondents. Try 10,000 or more. These polls are a joke. I vote Democrat, but I would actually like to see the Republicans win. Lets see the party of NO fix things.

    October 7, 2010 06:19 am at 6:19 am |
  16. Mark

    I am from MO and MO had the longest running history of picking the President until Obama:)

    October 7, 2010 08:15 am at 8:15 am |