2nd straight NH poll indicates Cain on the rise
October 10th, 2011
12:41 PM ET
10 years ago

2nd straight NH poll indicates Cain on the rise

Manchester, New Hampshire (CNN) - A second state poll indicates that Mitt Romney's still ahead of the rest of the field of Republican presidential candidates in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, but that Hermain Cain's numbers are on the rise.

According to a new survey by Institute of Politics at Harvard University and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, 38% of likely Republican primary voters say they would definitely or probably vote for Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts who's making his second bid for the White House. Romney has been the front-runner in just about every GOP primary poll in the Granite State over the past year.

In the poll released Monday, one day before a Republican presidential debate at Dartmouth, New Hampshire, Cain, the former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, is at 20%, with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 13%.

A WMUR Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire that was released Friday had Romney at 37%, Cain at 12%, up ten points from July, and Paul, who's making his third run for the presidency, at 9%.

According to the Institute of Politics at Harvard University and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College survey, 5% of likely Granite State GOP primary voters say they will definitely or probably support former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with former Utah Gov. and U.S. ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and Texas Gov. Rick Perry both at 4%, and Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 3%. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson are both at 1%, with 11% undecided.

"Polling at only 4%, Rick Perry is in a statistical dead heat with former Governors Gary Johnson and Jon Huntsman - and not Mitt Romney. Clearly, this is not the position that he envisioned for himself when he entered this race," says John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Institute of Politics at Harvard University.

"While Governor Perry trails Mitt Romney by more than 30 points - this race is far from over. There's opportunity for a strong Romney challenger to emerge - while Romney is the choice of 38% of likely Republican voters - only 10% say they are 'definitely' voting for him," adds Della Volpe.
The poll indicates that only 6% say they're definitely voting for Cain, who has surged in national polling the past two weeks.

According to the survey, only 14% say they are 'very satisfied' with the field of GOP presidential candidates. But 72% say they think Romney would win a 2012 general election matchup against President Barack Obama, with one in five saying the president would win re-election.

Romney has made a few appearances this year in Iowa, the state that kicks off the presidential caucus and primary season, but he has spent much more time in New Hampshire, the state that goes second in the race for the White House.

Huntsman appears to be betting all his chips on a strong showing in the Granite State, which comes second after Iowa in the primary and caucus calendar. Bachmann is spending much of her time in Iowa.

The poll also indicates that slightly less than half (46%) of likely Republican primary voters say they support the tea party movement. Of those voters, 30% say they support Cain, with 29% saying they back Romney.

The Institute of Politics at Harvard University and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College poll was conducted Oct. 2-6, with 648 likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.4% pts.

– Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PsteinhauserCNN


Also see:

Pelosi says senator's comment 'disrespectful to women'

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CNN, Republican Party of Florida to hold Jan. 26 debate

Filed under: 2012 • GOP • Herman Cain • New Hampshire
soundoff (26 Responses)
  1. Tex71

    It has been established most conclusively that conservatives are far from ready for a President who is not white. Mr. Cain can talk the talk; surely this will appeal to the right wing voters; he could even possibly be an acceptable VP candidate. But the last three years have proved beyond any doubt that a person of color in a top leadership position is not something that social conservatives can stomach.

    October 10, 2011 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  2. thomas

    Pizza for a New American Century !

    He will be the VP nominee in 2012.

    October 10, 2011 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  3. Ron

    If people believe that the Republican Party will support a black candidate they are fooling themselves. The GOP hates Obama because he is black........

    October 10, 2011 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  4. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    Well, it is beginning to seem that Perry is a flash in the pan. He doesn't seem that he is going to last much on the national stage. I think that he much like George W(oman) Bush in the sense that is wants to be a conservative but can't do everything that a conservative should.

    October 10, 2011 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  5. The Real Tom Paine

    Hot air usually does rise, until the cold truth deflates it. Cain will be toast in a matter of weeks, once 999 does not add up with regards to the debt and how local and state taxes would shoot up to cover the difference.

    October 10, 2011 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  6. Rudy NYC

    Liberals and Moderates are turned off by Mr. Cain's extreme conservative views. He thinks that it is all about the business, when the founding documents describe the rights of people, not the money. The word "business" doesn't appear *anywhere* in them.

    His 9-9-9 plan is a double down on the war on the middle class and the poor. He's a joke when it comes to foreign policy.

    October 10, 2011 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  7. Jim in NH

    Herman Cain is unAmerican for calling protesters unAmerican!
    And 999 is just 666 upsidedown.

    October 10, 2011 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  8. They ought to change from the elephant to the hippo...

    Well congratulations, Herb!! 20%... Wow! You're rising like pizza dough in a hat oven. Enjoy it while it lasts. They'll be a new contender next week!

    October 10, 2011 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  9. jeff kelly

    999 will hurt those who do not pay taxes, Americans making less than 25k per year will suffer under 999. Bad idea America, this man was a former Federal Reserve Banker. America needs an alternative to the status quo, Ron Paul offers a new direction. Ron Paul has a plan for the economy, Ron Paul will end the wars and bring the troops home to send their salaries here in the United States. Ron Paul has a plan to cut federal government departments that are not authorized in the constitution. Ron Paul will save Social Security and strenghten the VA to heal our woulnded warriors.

    October 10, 2011 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  10. jeff kelly

    999 is a bad plan for American making under 25k per year. Ron Paul offers the real solution to our economic crisis, Ron Paul has a plan to end the wars, bring the troops home and save the dollar.

    October 10, 2011 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  11. Aduzi

    With out pitch forks the 99 per cent is not a mob. They are a protest at best. They are not promoting class war fare but rater looking for opportunity. W. Bush was the class war fare promoter, his statement “If you’re not for us you’re against us” was meant to divide Americans.
    If you believe the Republicans answer to this, the statement was “taken out of context”, then there is a bridge in Brooklyn you probably own. The “If you’re not for us you’re against us” message shot down through the rank and file of the Republican Party like a bullet. It was designed and interpreted as a signal to not share the prosperity of America with those who did not agree with Republican ideology. As a result many middle class Americans voted against themselves. They were played and now they have no one to blame but themselves and corporate America. Finally, they are waking up. Now watch out for Mr Cain and the Republican party to pull another Fast One with the 9 9 9 tax proposal. Watch out for the Spin Doctors.

    October 10, 2011 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  12. Lolo

    Who are they trying to fool. There is no way that they will vote for Cain to be President. They are just trying to say lookie here we have a black man among us, will the rest of you poor minorities come and join our party too. I think not!!!!!!!!!!!!. We all know what the republican/tea party are about. They were so cocky and upset about President Obama they forgot to hide some of their racist, hateful views from the true Christian Americans.

    October 10, 2011 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  13. Teabug

    Herb, have you released your long form birth certificate yet? Cain isn't able. 9-9-9 is a great tagline for drumming up business for Domino's or Pizza Hut; but it will not work for getting the country whole again (unless you're a 1%)

    October 10, 2011 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  14. jeff kelly

    Aduzi is correct! 999 is a Fast One! Be very careful America, go to Ron Paul 2012.com read for yourself, think for yourself, Ron Paul is running as a Republican because we do not have real democracy in this country. The only way he could get on the ballot and into the debates is by belonging to one of the major parties. Ron Paul is the outsider in the Republican party because he is for the people, he is for peace, free trade with all nations and no entangling aliences with any country. Ron Paul is the peace candidate, Ron Paul is for the poor and middle class. Don't listen to those who say he has no compassion for the poor. Ron Paul will save Social Security and protect programs for the poor while we transition to a new economy. Ron Paul is the answer to the financial crisis!

    October 10, 2011 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  15. Sandy

    Ask Republican big money donors why they're not putting their money behind Caine. I'd like to hear the answer.

    October 10, 2011 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  16. Really?

    Hate to break it to you democrats (I'm an independent) but if republicans were all racist like you keep saying, Obama could not have been elected. I would vote for Obama over McCain any day, because I don't think McCain could effectively lead... Little did I know that Obama's rallying cry was a BS way to get elected, just like every other flipping politician out there. Republicans aren't all racist, Evangelicals aren't all bigots, Liberals aren't all "lefty loons", it's all this hate crap that makes the average, moderate American despise the two extremes. Many republicans voted for Obama. And many democrats and independents are now disenchanted with him. Are they all racist too? Get over the race thing. No one cares what color he is. This is like me saying democrats must hate white people since they were so anti-bush... I was too, but not for his skin-color. Cut the guilt crap, Americans are done with it.

    October 10, 2011 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  17. Al-NY,NY

    If Mittens doesn't clean up in neighboring NH, he'd might as well fold the campaign. They are at least moderate in some views, unlike Iowa republicans and all of SC which if you don't carry a bible on you and quote scripture at every turn, you are not for them. Cain is the latest floavor of the week. If only 14% are very statisfied, and 20% think Obama will win, that doesn't bode too well. Of course the numbers are correct because outside of plastic romney, not one of them would come close to winning anything near the electoral votes required. Let them win all those "vote rich" states like Ala, MS, WY, ND, SD, NB, KS, OK, and the others. Only the third world state TX is of any consequence

    October 10, 2011 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  18. Really?

    Big money donors don't put their money behind someone until they are certain they can win, and Cain is only recently rising in the polls, just like Perry did. They are watching trends, and assuming that Cain will not last, just like Perry. It's not. About. Race. Get over it. Why didn't all the big money donors throw in with Obama instantly? Because he was black? No. Because they didn't think he would beat Hillary. At first. But things change. Obama is a much better speaker than Herman Cain though. Cain is simple which can be relieving... but he is uninspiring.

    October 10, 2011 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  19. Big George in Big D

    @Sandy – and thank the good Lord they aren't. Herman Cain is a smart man but not presidential material. He's never held office!!! And as for foreign policies, etc., with all the unrest abroad, he's not match. Sorry. Come up with something a little less racially motivated. Got to hand it to you people, always trying to play the race card however sly!~

    October 10, 2011 01:58 pm at 1:58 pm |
  20. MTATL67

    Within two weeks Pizza man has insulted over half the nation. "It's your fault if you are poor", I am sure the single mother of 4 is now better off from Cain's insight. "Blacks have been brainwashed" thanks Herman I did not know that I was so dumb and in need of deprogramming. Who did you use. The unemployed "Just jealous" yes Mr. Cain, they are jealous just like the slaves were jealous of their masters up in the big house. Talk about class warfare. Mr. Cain has a completely unwarranted and inflated elitist attitude of those less fortunate than himself and others. To disqualify and dismiss the concerns of so many shows a complete inability and disqualification to be President of an entire nation of so many varied and diverse communities.

    October 10, 2011 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  21. Billdawg

    Herman Cain is surging in donations and at the polls because he has a clear msg about personal responsibility. The Republican party is not racist, and I believe Cain's 999 plan is a good starting point for dialogue. The gimme,gimme gimme far left is all about entitlemnent. Herman represents a real threat because he's not brainwashed and sees that the left is the "gospel of envy, The philosophy of failure."

    October 10, 2011 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  22. ST

    It is just bizarre or these people who are supporting Herb Cain are joking. How on earth any one who is deeply thinking, can elect a person for his first time since election existed, to hold the highest Office in planet. What are they thinking???

    October 10, 2011 02:18 pm at 2:18 pm |
  23. Billdawg

    Herman Cain will trounce Obama. He is about personal responsibility, something the President doesn't understand!

    October 10, 2011 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  24. AnitFringe

    Go "Herb". Palin's going to check you out a bit more. Maybe you'll get her blessing. She might have to take a bus trip with her family (and of course SarahPAC money) to see you. Set aside some time for her visit.

    October 10, 2011 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |

    Like he will be elected to be the GOP presidential candidate, folks hate to put it so blunt, but Cain is BLACK, POTUS was 1/2 black and look at the grief he and his family are facing because of their color. This won't happen period. Cain might have been a great Pizza man but what political experience or office has he held, none that I know of, ya some might say that it takes a business man not politician to run our country once again that will never happen either. What foreign experience does he have, just like POTUS he had very little but Cain has zero and today there is so much going on in the world too scarry to have a rookie handle it. Thank God for Hillary who is there for POTUS.

    October 10, 2011 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
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