Weather will influence Iowa caucuses, Huckabee says
December 25th, 2011
10:49 AM ET
11 years ago

Weather will influence Iowa caucuses, Huckabee says

(CNN) – If the weather is good on January 3, Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses; if the weather is bad, a weaker turnout will result in a victorious Ron Paul, former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee predicted Sunday.

Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, said the devotion disparity between supporters of the two contenders could greatly impact the outcome in the early voting state.

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“Ron Paul has an exceptional organization there and it very well could be that he could end up winning because of the extraordinary devotion of his followers," the former Arkansas governor said on “Fox News Sunday.” “He's got people that would walk over broken glass for him, and they break the glass to be able to say they did it.”

“That’s where Mitt is at a disadvantage, he doesn’t have the devotion,” Huckbee added.

He also said Rick Santorum is underestimated and suggested the former Pennsylvania senator might place in the top three or four.

Santorum has made social issues the pillars of his White House bid in the Hawkeye State, much like Huckabee, a former minister, did in 2008. Despite success among the state’s religious voting bloc in the last presidential election, Huckabee’s Iowa win failed to catapult him to the GOP nomination, which was ultimately captured by Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The latest Iowa poll from the American Research Group released Friday showed Paul, Romney and Newt Gingrich in a statistical tie - with 21%, 20% and 19% support respectively. All the remaining candidates received less than 10% each.

Huckabee said negative ads have hurt former House Speaker Gingrich, who surged to the top of national and state-wide polls a few weeks ago but has now seen his support start to recede. To Huckabee, the negative advertisements sow doubt in the minds of voters, particularly those who have yet to make a final decision.

“If you’re soft on a candidate and every day you get pounded with about 20 messages … it’s easier to switch at that point,” Huckabee said. “That’s what’s happening to Newt.”

But Huckabee cautioned against using state-wide polling as the key predictor for the caucuses. In the end, it is the committed and devoted supporters that make the difference in Iowa’s system, he said.

“Polls, you pick up the phone and you say ‘ya, I kinda like so and so,’” Huckabee said. “Caucus, you’ve got to drive somewhere and stand up and be counted for that candidate. It’s a very different kind of atmosphere.”

NOTE: While it's too early to forecast precisely what the weather will be in Iowa on January 3, long-range climatological models indicate a warmer and drier January across the Midwest, according to CNN Meteorologist Sean Morris. There is a strong La Nina in the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, which typically causes winter storms to move across Canada instead of the lower 48 and keeps Arctic air bottle up North of the U.S.-Canadian border.

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Filed under: 2012 • Iowa • Mike Huckabee • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul
soundoff (81 Responses)

    Let's hope for good weather.

    December 25, 2011 10:58 am at 10:58 am |
  2. ST

    I disagree. With Ron Paul supporters, it does not matter it will be raining, snowing or sunshine. These supporters are not different from those who supported the President in 2008. It was then snowing like hell, very cold and still they came to support him. What matters here is determination!

    December 25, 2011 10:59 am at 10:59 am |
  3. GI Joe

    God told him that? Then, if Mother Nature gives us snow, it must mean God votes for Ron Paul.

    How idiotic.

    December 25, 2011 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  4. Keith in Austin

    I strongly support Ron Paul's conservative domestic policies re: spending overhauls and the major downsizing of Big Government but strongly disagree with his Isolationist views abroad. This is his greatest weakness at a time when America needs to reinsert the image of our strength to our enemies overseas that wish to harm us.

    December 25, 2011 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  5. Fourteen year old boy

    "This is his greatest weakness at a time when America needs to reinsert the image of our strength ...."

    That's what she said.

    December 25, 2011 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  6. Richard-Missouri

    What??? What is the deal with Ron Paul potentially winning in Iowa? RIDICUOLOUS! Honestly, the guy stands about as much chance of becoming president as a snowball has of lasting in Hell! They guy is very smart and reasonable on many fiscal isssue, but a complete whack job on others – like foreign policy. Pauls supporters are complete whack jobs too, for even thinking Ron Paul could ever win! Let's get real folks! Backa REAL candidate that has a chance of winning, not some fringe nutjob who has just enough supporters to win straw polls and the like.

    December 25, 2011 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  7. Hawk

    It dosen't matter which one wins, they are both losers.

    December 25, 2011 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  8. Matheens

    Ron Paul isn't an isolationist. He merely supports the idea that America shouldn't be the world's police force. Its not our job to send our military to other countries and tell them how to run their government. Thats the whole point of freedom, being able to make your own decisions however you want. Our country is built upon the idea of freedom. We shouldn't be invading other countries to try and force them to accept our form of government. Our military is meant to PROTECT our country from harm. I almost feel bad for Iraq, we invaded them on false pretenses and then threw their country into a living hell for nine years just so that we could take their oil and leave. if you ask me, Ron Paul's the only person unafraid to say what's right and stand up for his beliefs. Jon Huntsman seems like an intelligent guy too. The rest of the GOP candidates just pander to the special interest groups that make them rich. I must say, if its Romney vs Obama then I'm very afraid of the direction our country is headed.

    December 25, 2011 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  9. donna

    Keith in Austin – You need to understand the difference between non-interventionism and isolationism. America has always been non-interventionist. It's the only affordable choice given our economy, and it is what Ron Paul advocates. HE DOES NOT ADVOCATE ISOLATIONISM.

    You may not agree with Ron Paul's position now. But do some more research before you decide.

    December 25, 2011 04:26 pm at 4:26 pm |
  10. Joshua Steimle

    What's not in doubt is that whether the weather is good or bad, if Paul wins the media will do their best to ignore it and prevent anyone from believing Paul is electable, because the dirty secret of the Romney campaign is that Romney isn't much different than Obama, and in the general election Romney stands a good chance of going the same way as McCain. Paul is the only candidate espousing policies that differ in any substantive way from those of Obama.

    December 25, 2011 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  11. Alex

    Strong national defense is what Ron Paul believes should be the militaries main priority and I agree. I personally think it is far smarter to have a strong national defense instead of endless, multi billion if not trillion dollar wars. I will be rooting for Ron Paul supporters who are in Iowa from here in New York. I'm happy we finally have a chance to vote someone who is not corrupt. Let me put it this way though, for anyone skeptical I encourage anyone to at least listen to one of Ron Paul's recent town halls and see what you think for yourself. As he rises in the polls I sm sure he will be asked more in the public's eye about his policies so everyone can better understand them snd make the right choice.

    Ron Paul isn't about being a slick politician but to decide like with any candidate it's best to know their positions on the issues. Happy holidays.

    December 25, 2011 04:36 pm at 4:36 pm |
  12. Andrew

    Rain or shine, Romney has my vote. ROMNEY 2012!

    December 25, 2011 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  13. tony

    No government equals the law of the jungle. Taliban Style.

    December 25, 2011 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  14. markiejoe

    Can I get in the CNN headlines with this prediction (which is 100% accurate):

    Romney WILL BE the Republican Presidential nominee no matter what the weather in any state from now until the GOP nominating convention next summer. I've been posting this for months now, and it's still accurate. The Republicans have no other realistic choice but Romney.

    That, of course, leaves the neocons and Christian right-wingers who can't stand Romney in a quandry: They can either (1) swallow their pride and their beliefs and vote for Romney anyway, (2) stay home in droves on election day next November, thus ensuring another Obama term, or (3) nominate their own ultra right-wing, evangelical as a third-party candidate, thus ensuring another Obama term.

    That's it; that's the inevitable GOP scenario from now until November 2012. Put me in the CNN headlines.

    December 25, 2011 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  15. Anonymous

    The corporate-controlled media does not want to report positively on Paul.

    December 25, 2011 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  16. mdn

    I like Romney. He is for Romneycare on a national level. He is for gay marriage. He is for a women's right to choose. So far he is for all the things we have. That is the sign of a true conservative. Don't believe the RINO stuff.

    December 25, 2011 05:01 pm at 5:01 pm |
  17. once upon a horse

    I thought it would be sort of anti-American to let the weather determine if you vote or not. Maybe it's a Republican thing.

    December 25, 2011 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  18. You will be po d in 2012

    Obama will win again in 2012.Look at all the buyers remorse of putttin repubs in power in such states as Wis,Fla,Ohio,And Michigan.Why is it that repub run states in the south need the most financial fedral help?If the south ever wakes up the right is finished because it does nt appear to be too many millionaires their so in what way do they fiot into republican financial plan?None,you have to be really confused to beleive cutting taxes for the rich and offset it by cutting your future ss is a good idea is absolutely cuckoo.SS is solvent until 2037 how come they are not that savvy about finding a way to pay for wars and tax cuts.

    December 25, 2011 05:19 pm at 5:19 pm |
  19. Pel

    Obviously the firmness of people's beliefs is checked better under some adverse conditions. If Mike's belief that most Romney's supporters are fair-weather friends is true, I wonder how much support would he have left as the President if it's time to make hard decisions - on protecting people's liberties, wars, responsible budgets, reducing legal burden, supporting business climate (at the cost of someone else, of course: it's always like that - there is no free cheese).

    The president with devoted supporters who will stay put rain or shine while he or she keeps to his declared principles seems to be a preferable choice to the one with fair-weather supporters.

    December 25, 2011 05:20 pm at 5:20 pm |
  20. Val Rankov

    My prediction: If the wather is bad Ron Paul wins. If the weather is good Ron Paul wins. If there is no weather Ron Paul wins.

    December 25, 2011 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  21. tim

    I didn't know that Mike Huckabee was weather man on the side

    December 25, 2011 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  22. pablo

    Huckabee is a celebrity wannabe. He was a minister of a small baptist church in Pine Bluff Arkansas, got a taste of the limelight and loves it. He wants to be either a rock star or a politician.

    December 25, 2011 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  23. GeorgeBos95

    Huckabee's still grasping for attention?

    December 25, 2011 06:30 pm at 6:30 pm |
  24. Sirned

    Romney is for unfettered trade and banks that have no regulation....Can you say Bush on steroids. ?

    December 25, 2011 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  25. BeverlyNC

    Republicans are so out of touch with the People, so destructive in their actions to gain power, so extremists in their views to attract so-called "Christians" who hate, judge, and live a life Jesus would not recognize anything close to His teachings, that they can not possibly credibly lead this nation of ALL people of different colors, backgrounds, beliefs, needs, and rights Republicans do not agree with. They want to legally end our rights, shove their sick social agenda down our throats, let the poor die, no one have healthcare, and on and on. Republicans are now almost a cult controlled by just a few wealthy men – they are not leaders, not for Democracy, and have no interest in following the Constitution. Get rid of every Republican in every local, state, and national seat. We must clean these morally bankrupt haters and liars out of our government and bring back our freedom, our democracy, and our nation that represents ALL people fairly. Stand with President Obama. Stand with the Democrats. They have never stopped working for ALL people, never stopped trying to fnd solutions for jobs, healthcare for all, saving SS and Medicare, and making sure America stays one valued for its values, humanity, and justice.

    December 25, 2011 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
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