Weather will influence Iowa caucuses, Huckabee says
December 25th, 2011
10:49 AM ET
11 years ago

Weather will influence Iowa caucuses, Huckabee says

(CNN) – If the weather is good on January 3, Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucuses; if the weather is bad, a weaker turnout will result in a victorious Ron Paul, former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee predicted Sunday.

Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, said the devotion disparity between supporters of the two contenders could greatly impact the outcome in the early voting state.

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“Ron Paul has an exceptional organization there and it very well could be that he could end up winning because of the extraordinary devotion of his followers," the former Arkansas governor said on “Fox News Sunday.” “He's got people that would walk over broken glass for him, and they break the glass to be able to say they did it.”

“That’s where Mitt is at a disadvantage, he doesn’t have the devotion,” Huckbee added.

He also said Rick Santorum is underestimated and suggested the former Pennsylvania senator might place in the top three or four.

Santorum has made social issues the pillars of his White House bid in the Hawkeye State, much like Huckabee, a former minister, did in 2008. Despite success among the state’s religious voting bloc in the last presidential election, Huckabee’s Iowa win failed to catapult him to the GOP nomination, which was ultimately captured by Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The latest Iowa poll from the American Research Group released Friday showed Paul, Romney and Newt Gingrich in a statistical tie - with 21%, 20% and 19% support respectively. All the remaining candidates received less than 10% each.

Huckabee said negative ads have hurt former House Speaker Gingrich, who surged to the top of national and state-wide polls a few weeks ago but has now seen his support start to recede. To Huckabee, the negative advertisements sow doubt in the minds of voters, particularly those who have yet to make a final decision.

“If you’re soft on a candidate and every day you get pounded with about 20 messages … it’s easier to switch at that point,” Huckabee said. “That’s what’s happening to Newt.”

But Huckabee cautioned against using state-wide polling as the key predictor for the caucuses. In the end, it is the committed and devoted supporters that make the difference in Iowa’s system, he said.

“Polls, you pick up the phone and you say ‘ya, I kinda like so and so,’” Huckabee said. “Caucus, you’ve got to drive somewhere and stand up and be counted for that candidate. It’s a very different kind of atmosphere.”

NOTE: While it's too early to forecast precisely what the weather will be in Iowa on January 3, long-range climatological models indicate a warmer and drier January across the Midwest, according to CNN Meteorologist Sean Morris. There is a strong La Nina in the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, which typically causes winter storms to move across Canada instead of the lower 48 and keeps Arctic air bottle up North of the U.S.-Canadian border.

Also see:

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Candidates join families for Christmas greetings

Christmas greetings replace partisanship in weekly addresses

Filed under: 2012 • Iowa • Mike Huckabee • Mitt Romney • Ron Paul
soundoff (81 Responses)
  1. GonzoinHouston

    This is one of the smarter things Huckabee has said lately. Ron Paul's supporters, generally, are fewer in number but greater in dedication. You could compare them to followers of the Grateful Dead. Not that the result will have much influence on the eventual outcome. That being said, Huckabee was at his best when he was swapping lines in mock interviews with Stephen Colbert. Why he doesn't have a regular slot on that show is beyond me.

    December 25, 2011 07:12 pm at 7:12 pm |
  2. Squigman

    It matters not. The democrats, are going to win. The presidential office, as well as congress and senate, will be firmly in the hands of the democrats.

    December 25, 2011 07:25 pm at 7:25 pm |
  3. Larry, Curly, or Moe for GOP Nomination

    Huckabee, you may be right on this one. However, it does not change the fact that you are a bad liar much of the time. Your ads calling for a repeal of "Obama Care", i.e. "formulated in secret" is a blatant falsehood. Did you get it from the "father of lies?" Now, whenever you come on the air, I change the channel. Before your lies I liked you. No more.

    December 25, 2011 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  4. Chad

    What a doofus. (Huckabee that is).

    December 25, 2011 07:44 pm at 7:44 pm |
  5. Tony

    Anyone who uses isolationist and Ron Paul in the same sentence as a negative is proof positive the MSM has real brainwashing powers. You are not informed, and I suggest you read anything by Ron Paul regarding foreign policy. Then you will see how you have been lied to. Hopefully then you will become a RP supporter just like thousands around the country are finding out.

    December 25, 2011 07:53 pm at 7:53 pm |
  6. benji

    On election day Nov 2012 it could be a blizzard and I would still go vote for Obama!

    December 25, 2011 08:07 pm at 8:07 pm |
  7. conoclast

    My my, Ron Paul is surging; there may be hope yet for finding intelligent life among republicans!

    December 25, 2011 08:11 pm at 8:11 pm |
  8. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    There are going ot be many surprises that night with the cacuses. For those that think that Ron Paul will win or do well, then they are going to be disappointed. His supporters have claimed and showed great support but can't do it when it comes to the polls. He has failed to get his supporters to the polls to do what he needs them to do. Will his fortunes change? I don't think so.

    December 25, 2011 08:46 pm at 8:46 pm |
  9. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    As for those that see Paul as the ideal, then they need to wake up and understand that this isn't an ideal world. Ron Paul is an isolationist because he is advocating the US retreat from the world. What would he make of the NATO treaty? Would he retreat from that? Would he support those close allies like Britian when they needed help? It certianly doesn't sound like it.

    December 25, 2011 08:49 pm at 8:49 pm |
  10. Larry L


    "Keith in Austin – You need to understand the difference between non-interventionism and isolationism. America has always been non-interventionist. It's the only affordable choice given our economy, and it is what Ron Paul advocates. HE DOES NOT ADVOCATE ISOLATIONISM."
    Ron Paul advocates non-interventionism at a time when the world is highly interconnected and trans-national terrorism poses one of our greatest threats. When global trade, environmental, and military alliances determine a nation's future sitting back and waiting to play a role relegates nations to second-tier status. Ron Paul offers idealistic and simplistic solutions to problems far too complex for 1950s. You can call it non-intervention but it doesn't change the facts – his approach is more isolationist than anything else – a pig is still a pig...

    December 25, 2011 08:56 pm at 8:56 pm |
  11. Michael

    I would vote for Ron Paul for president even though I'm not a usual supporter of his.Other than that there is no way I can vote for either candidate from the Republican or Democratic party. The whole thing is rigged anyway and will continue to be rigged because the majority of people in this country are brainwashed sheep.

    December 25, 2011 09:11 pm at 9:11 pm |
  12. Joshua Ludd

    Also known as Fox News covering itself in case Ron Paul does win.. they have something to blame it on besides the other terrible candidates and the fact that the Republican party is about as far from actually being conservative as one can get.

    December 25, 2011 09:25 pm at 9:25 pm |
  13. Valerie from Raleigh

    Ron Paul is a fine man and so are the other Republican candidates. However, none will win and the 2012 election and the presidency will go to President Obama. Also, the Dems will take over the House and send the nutty Tea Partiers back home where they can no longer continue to damage the country. Then, the President can go about "fixing" the country and the economy. In 2016, without the Tea Partiers messing things up, the once-proud Republican party will again elect statesmen (such as former Senators Bob Dole of Kansas and John warner of Virginia) and will run Jon Huntsman for president and he will win handsomly. Huntsman is running for the 2012 election but his value has not been noticed since the Tea Partiers have control of the Republican party. Our country needs two strong political parties and, in2016 with the election of Huntsman, our democracy will be restored.

    December 25, 2011 09:25 pm at 9:25 pm |
  14. And Peace to the World

    That's pretty much what Huckabee is good for: the weather forecast (without Doppler Radar, which means his guess is as good as anyone's who just takes a look out the window.) I hope he enjoys his time on the fake newscast Fox, which apparently now is into fake weather reports too. They should rename to Fox corporate entertainment, corp.

    December 25, 2011 09:35 pm at 9:35 pm |
  15. chuckly

    I say, if anyone shows up at these polls, then they are nothing but ldiots anyway. If you are casting a vote for anyone of these republican osers, you aren't smart enough to vote anyway.

    December 25, 2011 09:44 pm at 9:44 pm |
  16. Kris

    @ Alex. I couldn't have said it better myself. Just take the time to listen to the guy instead rushing out and regurgitating what the media says about him. He is really not crazy and certainly not isolationist. The media wants you to believe these negative things about the man because he is not their candidate. It is simple as that. Just take the time and maybe you'll end up voting for someone that isn't controlled by big money.

    December 25, 2011 10:13 pm at 10:13 pm |
  17. nytw

    Who is this moron. We pretty much all agree that former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton was worthless. I don't understand why this former Arkansas governor should be considered any better.

    December 25, 2011 10:28 pm at 10:28 pm |
  18. tcaros


    December 25, 2011 10:35 pm at 10:35 pm |
  19. TJeff1776

    Romney doesn't drink or smoke. Will have a clear alert head 24 hrs a day. Thats important. Has a good business head. Has an impeccable moral records unlike some candidates. If somehow a slate could contain Mittens as Prez and Ron Paul as V-Prez- might be unbeatable. That Gingrich....I'd be surprised if he could win a dogcatcher's election.

    December 25, 2011 10:44 pm at 10:44 pm |
  20. Emery

    Huckabee matters just about as much as George Bush's SAT scores.

    December 25, 2011 10:52 pm at 10:52 pm |

    I just finish watching Trek2 and the prince charming character reminded me so must of Romney, especially in the bar scene
    where prince charming convinces all the witches and tress to support his war on Far Away, while Trek was away looking for the heir to the throne.! In fact, Charming wanted to be king so desperately (like Romney) he was willing to go any extreme or extremists to win the kingdom of Far, Far, Away. Ironic

    December 25, 2011 10:57 pm at 10:57 pm |
  22. Mike

    And who is this "Mike"? sounds vaguely familiar...

    December 25, 2011 11:00 pm at 11:00 pm |
  23. harleybike

    For those who keep saying Ron Paul does not know much about foreign affairs, please think about what you are saying.

    There is a reason why almost the entire world does not like us, some even hate us. It is not our freedom they hate, it's our interventionist foreign policy. If someone moves in your house by force and dictates what you can do, you would fight back too. Please give this analogy some serious thought. If you are honest with your answer, you will begin to understand what Ron Paul is saying about non-intervention.

    Next, if our our current foreign policy is so good, why have we not curbed terrorism? How else can you explain the increasing homeland security reach into our lives? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different results. Are we not being insane by continuing a foreign policy that has not been effective? Isn't it about time to try a different approach? At least we should look at this from another perspective?

    You know, there are a lot of big corporations making a LOT of money by agitating interventions and war, at the expense of our children's lives. They are doing a great job (via the media) convincing you that this is good foreign policy. It's time that you start questioning their motives.

    You may not have a child at war now, but somewhere down your generation line, your grandchildren and great grandchildren will be sent and may be killed or maimed in on of these nonsense wars like Vietnam and Iraq. By that time, it's too late to regret.

    December 25, 2011 11:01 pm at 11:01 pm |
  24. JJ

    Who cares. They are -all- loozers. 🙂

    December 25, 2011 11:12 pm at 11:12 pm |
  25. Roberto

    Well, Jeez folks. Let's hope for weather. I hope there is some. If there isn't weather, who's going to rule the United States? I go out in the morning everyday, let the dog out, sip my coffee, read the Washington Post, go to work (for the Federal Government) and, damn it, if there isn't weather, my day is all screwed up. I really rely on the weather so that my day functions properly. You don't know what it's like to try to function in a normal way when there isn't weather. It's really critical. I hope all the voters in Iowa have some weather so they can function properly. I would hate to think that the next four presidential years are going to be schlubbed because Iowans didn't have any weather for their caucus. I'll pray about it. I'm sure God has something under his arm that will let those Iowans function properly come caucus time. I know God won't let horrible things happen to the United States because of a lack of weather. Can I go to bed now?

    December 25, 2011 11:37 pm at 11:37 pm |
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