Final survey suggests Gingrich leads in SC
January 21st, 2012
11:28 AM ET
11 years ago

Final survey suggests Gingrich leads in SC

Columbia, South Carolina (CNN) - A new poll suggests that Newt Gingrich has a double digit lead in Saturday's crucial Republican presidential primary in the Palmetto State.

According to an American Research Group survey released Saturday morning, 40% of people likely to vote in South Carolina's GOP contest say they are backing the former House speaker, with 26% supporting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 18% backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and 13% supporting former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

It's a big day for politics in South Carolina Saturday on CNN. Tune in at 4 p.m. ET to see the candidates debate the issues from Thursday night's edge-of-your-seat debate then, at 6 p.m. ET, CNN's special live coverage of the South Carolina primary begins. See the results as they come in on on CNN, and the CNN mobile apps.

Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @politicalticker

The survey was conducted Thursday and Friday, half before and half after Thursday night's explosive CNN-Southern Republican presidential debate in Charleston, South Carolina.

The ARG poll indicates that Gingrich has jumped seven points and Romney's dropped six points since their last survey, which was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday. At that time, both men were basically all tied up, with Gingrich at 33% and Romney at 32%.

According to the new poll, Gingrich leads Romney 47%-24% among self-identified Republicans, with Paul and Santorum each at 14%. Among independent voters and Democrats, Paul's at 33%, Romney 32%, Gingrich 18% and Santorum 10%. South Carolina holds an open primary, which means independents and even Democrats are allowed to cast ballots.

The survey indicates that Gingrich grabs about half the vote among self-described tea party movement supporters, far ahead of the rest of the field. Among those who say they are not tea party supporters, Gingrich is at 33%, Romney 31%, Paul 22% and Santorum 11%.

Gingrich leads Romney among men 38% to 25%, followed by Paul with 21% and Santorum at 13%. Among women, Gingrich leads Romney 42% to 26%, followed by Paul with 16%, and Santorum with 13%. That number may be surprising, following the broadcast Thursday night of an allegation from Gingrich's ex-wife, Marianne, that the former House speaker offered her a choice of an open marriage or divorce when he revealed to her he was having an affair with the woman he later made his third wife.

Gingrich said the claim by his second wife was false, but the story made major headlines, and an angry Gingrich chastised CNN for starting off Thursday night's debate with a question about his ex-wife's allegations. Gingrich's response elicited a standing ovation from the audience.

The American Research Group poll was conducted by telephone, with 600 likely South Carolina GOP primary voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

- Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PSteinhauserCNN

Also see:

Santorum: Campaign is surging

Gingrich adviser predicts 4-6 point win in South Carolina

Santorum's South Carolina closer

Romney's lead shrinking in new national poll

Ron Paul looking ahead?

Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Newt Gingrich • Polls • Rick Santorum • Ron Paul • South Carolina
soundoff (13 Responses)
  1. Jules

    A sad day for the GOP. Newt doesn't care who he destroys even if it is the entire Republican party.

    January 21, 2012 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  2. Ann

    Gingrich? are the SC voters stupid? Any other candidate would be ok.. but Gingrich? hello!

    January 21, 2012 11:43 am at 11:43 am |
  3. Thomas

    South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley will eat some smak on her Romney endorsment.

    Get ready Gov . Rick the rip Scott , Mitt is on his way to FLA.

    January 21, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  4. They ought to change from the elephant to the hippo...

    Seems like negative adds work... It would be nice if people thought for themselves, but..

    January 21, 2012 11:49 am at 11:49 am |
  5. They ought to change from the elephant to the hippo...

    Money is speech and elections can be bought... We should all be proud.

    January 21, 2012 11:53 am at 11:53 am |
  6. vic , nashville ,tn

    Good news

    I want Newt to win SC

    January 21, 2012 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  7. DENNA

    I saw one of those old geezers praising Newt this morning on the television. Her only goal, she stated, is to get rid of Obama. In that case, why not just pray to Satan and ask him to run? Heck if you make a big enough deal, he'll even turn this old country any way you want it.

    January 21, 2012 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  8. carrotroot

    A picture is forming that Romney is being dishonest about many things ranging from his dubious job creation numbers to his non-commital stance on releasing his taxes. He may still win the primaries ... but he's going to be coming into general as someone who cannot be trusted.

    January 21, 2012 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  9. Bigwilliestyles

    Please make Gingrich the repub nominee. Please make this fat, racist, lying, cheating pos and his adulterous home-wrecking wife the repub nominee. All of Obama's supporters are behind you Newt; go Newt go. It would be like xmas in November.

    January 21, 2012 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm |
  10. Shane

    Ron Paul 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    January 21, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  11. Killdeer

    So much for "family values"

    January 21, 2012 03:43 pm at 3:43 pm |
  12. Lincoln Wilder

    The most inexplicable numbers in this poll: "Among women, Gingrich leads Romney 42% to 26%, followed by Paul with 16%, and Santorum with 13%."

    January 21, 2012 03:48 pm at 3:48 pm |
  13. Kathleen Farrell

    Stunning. The state still venerating the Confederate flag backs the man who shows up this week as blatantly racist and with no regard for marriage.

    January 21, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |