CNN Poll: Gender gap and likeability keep Obama over Romney
(CNN) - President Barack Obama holds a nine-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney thanks in part to the perception that the president is more likeable and more in touch with the problems facing women and middle class Americans, according to a new national poll.
A CNN/ORC International poll released Monday also indicates a large gender gap that benefits Obama, but the public is divided on which candidate can best jump-start the economy.
Full poll (pdf)
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According to the poll, 52% of registered voters say if the presidential election were held today, they would vote for the president, with 43% saying they would cast a ballot for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is making his second bid for the White House. The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, a few days after former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania suspended his bid for the GOP nomination. Even though former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continue their long-shot bids for the nomination, Romney is now generally considered the presumptive nominee.
The survey indicates women voters back Obama over Romney by 16 points (55%-39%), virtually unchanged from an 18-point advantage among women for the president in CNN polling last month.
The poll was conducted two days after Democratic strategist and CNN contributor Hilary Rosen created a controversy by saying that Ann Romney "never worked a day in her life."
"That remark may have little long-term effect on women voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "By a two-to-one margin, the women surveyed saw President Obama as more in touch with the problems facing American women today."
Half of those questioned say that Obama is more likely to stand up for what he believes, with only 29% saying that about Romney. Nearly half say that Romney is more likely to change his position on the issues for political reasons, just 39% saying the same thing about the president. Obama has double-digit leads over Romney on likeability, honesty, confidence, values, leadership and almost every other characteristic tested, with one important exception.
"Obama and Romney are essentially tied on who is more likely to get the economy moving again, and that may provide Romney an opening to chip away at Obama's current overall lead," says Holland.
According to the poll, Obama holds a 48%-43% margin over Romney among crucial independent voters. The survey also indicates s generation gap, with all age groups, except those 65 and older, backing Obama. And the poll points to an income divide, with the president holding a 20-point lead over Romney among those earning less than $50,000 per year, while those making more than that figure divided between the two candidates.
Obama's likeability and strong performance on personal characteristics helps explain why three-quarters of his supporters questioned say their vote will be a vote for Obama, not a vote against his opponent. By contrast, more than six in ten Romney supporters say their choice will be mostly be a vote against Obama.
"That's a significantly higher level of anti-incumbent voting than polls found in previous years. In 2004, for example, 55% of Democratic nominee John Kerry's supporters said their choice of Kerry was really a vote against President George W. Bush. The question for 2012 is whether Romney has to provide his supporters with more reasons to vote for him in order to win, or whether a negative anti-Obama message is enough, given that historically high level of anti-incumbent voting," adds Holland.
Two-thirds say they have made up their minds, with just 29% saying they could change their minds between now and November. As for handicapping the election, right now Americans don't think Romney has a good chance of winning the White House. Only 35% said Romney will be victorious in November.
"That is certainly not a prediction of what will happen, of course, but it is worth noting that in the last four presidential elections, the public was able to correctly pick the winner in polls taken in the spring or early summer," adds Holland.
Even though Santorum is out of the race for the White House and Romney is the all but certain nominee, the battle for the GOP nomination technically continues. According to the survey, 57% of Republicans say that Romney is their choice for the GOP nominee, with 19% backing Gingrich and 18% supporting Paul.
The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International April 13-15, with 1,015 adult Americans, including 910 registered voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
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Of course, of course, of course. You don't need to poll this. It is a waste of time and money!
Focus on the polls? The debt is ballooning, gas costs much jore and Iran is going nuclear. Obama care will be voted down and racial tensions are at an all time high. We have alot of problems that have not been solved.
Yes the rich must, have to, pay more they benefit the most from this country heck its your obligation to pay more if you are extremely successful because that money wouldn't have happened had it not been for the services provided but who cares if that bridge colaoses full middle class workers at rush hour lord knows wealthy only work a 4 hour day
Funny how every single poll except for Fox News shows Obama with a clear lead. Wonder why that is.
I'm.. ..soooo in loooove with yoooooou...
No doubt due to those shining examples of respect for the taxpayers and fiduciary trust, "take the fifth" GSA and Solyndra.
Hard to believe this survey when it states 11% of Republicans will vote for Obama. Laughable!
Paul, its April... and your point is?
"Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Barack
Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, and Mitt Romney as the Republican Party's candidate."
Suppose we take a poll right here and now..... If the readers had a choice would they like to see other candidates included in the questions?
Funny how EVERY poll except for Fox News shows Obama with a clear lead. Seriously, Google "Obama Romney Poll". Obama is clearly in front, except at Fox. Wake-up you paranoid, brainwashed GOP sheep.
So, as a Mormon President, does this mean my alcohol, coffee, and cigerettes will go up? Can I trade my wife in? Go to Salt Lake City and try to buy a beer! Go to Ogden, UT. for your new wife...
Just sayin'.
Obama will win, plain and simple.
If anyone here was a smart and informed person, they would vote for
the one and only RON PAUL. Any other choice shows your ignorance.
"obamney"=godman sachs puppets. WAKE UP PPL. How much money did Ron Paul take
from lobbyist's??????? Obama has not stopped any wars. Wake up and Think People.
Vote RON PAUL or let the corrupt politicians vote in another of their own.
Both Gallup and Rasmussen have Romney up by +2 and +3 respectively. I think I'll trust them over a democratically owned new company.
Rasmussen did a poll the other day and Ron Paul was the only candidate that could beat Obama. Not only that, he just won delegates in Colorado and Minnesota to the national convention. Come on CNN, why don't you report this information also?
Also if you think Fox is news you probably think Scooby Doo is Unsolved Mysteries. CNN is where it's at.
Mitt hasn't made up his mind who he'll vote for in November.
It's Obama, all the way! He'll jump start everything, espcially with a Democratic Congress, and Senate.
Romney is up 3 points in pretty much every other poll out there, nice job CNN.
Sorry all you haters, but our Prez will win in November, no doubt.
It's time to move over Romney. Paul is the only true conservative left in the race...and Paul has Obama's disaffected '08 supporters.
And yet the Gallup Poll released today show Mitt with 47% and Obama with 45%. Why doesn't CNN show those numbers as well?
BREAKING NEWS: CNN is biased
@im rich: your'e off your medication again.
shush let's keep this quiet.