Poll: Obama and Romney tied in Arizona
April 23rd, 2012
05:05 PM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Obama and Romney tied in Arizona

(CNN) - The battle between President Barack Obama and all-but-certain GOP nominee Mitt Romney for Arizona's eleven electoral votes stands neck and neck, according to a poll released Monday.

Arizona, which has voted for only one Democratic presidential candidate in sixty years, has become a hot battleground in 2012, partly because of the state's increasing Latino population.

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The poll from Arizona State University's Merrill/Morrison Institute indicated 42% of registered voters in Arizona backing Romney and 40% supporting Obama. The margin was well within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

A large portion of respondents – 18% - said they were undecided in who they would support in the November's general election. Among independents, the undecided figure was far higher. Thirty-four percent of voters who said they were independents said they hadn't yet picked a candidate to support.

"As the poll shows, the independents will decide this election in Arizona," Dr. David Daugherty, director of research at Morrison Institute for Public Policy, said in a statement accompanying the poll's release. "But, it's important to remember the state's history: Arizona has supported only one Democratic presidential candidate since Harry S Truman was elected in 1948. Winning Arizona will be an uphill battle for President Obama."

As Daugherty noted, Arizona has consistently voted Republican for decades, with the single Democratic win coming in 1996 for Bill Clinton. In 2008, Obama made an effort to win Arizona, despite being pitted against a longtime senator from the state, John McCain. Obama eventually lost to McCain by an 8-point margin.

Since then, however, Latinos have grown in population, boosting Democrats' confidence in winning Arizona. Latinos made up 16% of the electorate in 2008, which was an increase from four years earlier. Obama won the demographic by 15 percentage points, 56% to 41%.

On Thursday, Vice President Joe Biden made a campaign appearance in the state, expressing confidence in Democrats' chances there in November.

"We think we have a real shot at winning the presidential race here in Arizona," Biden said at the event, which was part of a West Coast campaign swing for the vice president.

Biden added the Obama reelection campaign was actively working to generate support in the state.

"You're going to see organizers here," Biden said.

Republicans have largely thrown cold water on the notion of a Democratic victory in Arizona. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus called the idea a "mirage" last week on a conference call with reporters.

The ASU poll was conducted by telephone from 488 registered voters April 9-13. The sampling error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

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Filed under: 2012 • Arizona
soundoff (35 Responses)
  1. Dr. Knowitall

    At this point, if you are still undecided like those 18%, you will never show up at the polls.

    April 23, 2012 05:07 pm at 5:07 pm |

    With Willard's self deport policy, he's certain to lose Arizona or any state with a huge latino base.

    April 23, 2012 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  3. rs

    As an Arizonan whose state has long since been run aground by an increasingly insane GOP leadership, I would have to say this means Mr. Romney is in deep, deep trouble if voters in this glow-in-the-dark, radioactive red state allows Mr. Obama within 20 points of Mr. Romney in any poll.

    April 23, 2012 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  4. kakaraka

    Give me a break. Only 488 people questioned? The sample is not representative. Period. Another biased poll.

    April 23, 2012 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  5. Joe

    We all know that team MORMON / JACK MORMON are going to do everything in their power to Surpress the votes of the poor, hispanics, African Americans, people recieving Social Security & yes, even the Disabled. Team MORMON/ JACK MORMON dont give a damn about nothin but The Rich, Richer & Richest!!!!!!!!!!!!

    April 23, 2012 05:22 pm at 5:22 pm |
  6. Joe

    The only way Our Prez loses in Nov is that Bishop Romney & Jack Mormon Rubio cheat. & believe me they will. LET AMERICA VOTE, team mormon / jack mormon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    April 23, 2012 05:24 pm at 5:24 pm |
  7. Thomas

    It's early !

    Romney is out off touch !

    April 23, 2012 05:30 pm at 5:30 pm |
  8. tstorm92

    Republicans are like lemmings, they'll vote for anyone with an R next to their name regardless of what they stand for. Republicans do what's best for "the party", Democrats and Independents do what's best for the "country".

    April 23, 2012 05:31 pm at 5:31 pm |
  9. AL-NY,NY


    Give me a break. Only 488 people questioned? The sample is not representative. Period. Another biased poll.
    "Arizona poll shows Romney up by 10 over Obama".....kakaraka says "No way you win Arizona Obama. See I told you he had no chance there"

    April 23, 2012 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  10. Bootstomper

    Come on AZ vote Obama Biden 2012! Forget Mitt and Marco. Weren't Mitt and Marco part of the 3 stooges?

    April 23, 2012 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  11. 2012liberal

    I can't imagine it staying republican after all the bs laws that hv been passed that hv suppressed women and latinos. Obama/Biden 2012

    April 23, 2012 05:43 pm at 5:43 pm |
  12. San Jose, CA

    I very much doubt that Obama wins AZ
    As volatile as it was for a republican in 2008, Obama still lost AZ. [just because it was Mccain's state, means squat. McCain was a weAk candidate for the presidency]
    Now there is a much more fervent volatilty towards the democrats, not the Republicans.
    the M s M leads us under the misapprehension that the Dems are a better choice.

    Blame bush won't work this time around.

    April 23, 2012 06:00 pm at 6:00 pm |
  13. Larry L

    The Hispanic vote is a no-brainer... The only time Republicans mention Hispanic people, other than to rant about illegal immigration, is every four years before an election. President Obama is a President for all Americans – not just the bigoted and racist TeaParty radicals.

    April 23, 2012 06:02 pm at 6:02 pm |
  14. Iamnotfooled

    I trust the independants to do the right thing. Since November 2010 when the Tea Party took over the House they have done exactly nothing. The whole 2011 year was a waste. The only thing they managed was to down grade our credit rating. Oh and name post offices. They also obstructed whatever President Obama tried to do. Medicare and Social Security will be privatized. The poor, elderly, and disabled, will lose even more benefits according to the Ryan plan, which Romney has endorsed. They want to do away with HUD, Food Stamps , Healthcare, the basics. It's not even a choice to me. Obama- Biden 2012. Even the Catholic bishops (and yes all of them) cause the ones who wrote the letter has the authority to speak for all the bishops (unlike what Ryan said only a few) have condemned his plan and said it was immoral.

    April 23, 2012 06:04 pm at 6:04 pm |
  15. FED up

    the thing about polling is you don't have to be a registered voter to participate. Most of this "growing population of Latinos" taken into consideration here are illegals who can't vote. They can wave Obama signs all they want but they can't vote. If they could, they may not vote for Obama anyway since he hasn't lifted a finger for immigration reform like he promised he would in the last election.

    April 23, 2012 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  16. Jrl

    Whats the number Of democrats vs republicans polled? Of course they won't tell you cause they over sample democrats

    April 23, 2012 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  17. Bill in Florida

    If the poll is even somewhat accurate, this spells big trouble for Romney. If he has to defend a traditionally red state like Arizona, he'll have to campaign almost everywhere. On the other hand, all Obama has to do is hold his existing 20 states and win a few of the swing (and former red) states he won in 2008. Real Clear Politics has Obama with 227 electoral votes to Romney's 170, and with 141 up for grabs. Either candidate could still win, but the electoral map greatly favors Obama.

    April 23, 2012 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  18. sayer

    Obama 2012!

    April 23, 2012 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  19. Jrl

    Dems are over sampled to get results. That's why they don't report it

    April 23, 2012 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  20. patiat

    What's news is that Romney isn't ahead 9-1 in a state that detests Obama as much as Arizona does.

    April 23, 2012 07:08 pm at 7:08 pm |
  21. tct

    The Republicans are running Jesse kelly again, the guy whose campaign had a funraiser where you could win a chance to shoot a picture of Giffords with an M-16. They'll lose most Independents here (Pima County) until they throw out the leaders who keep lying about what happened and reject those who promote violence.

    April 23, 2012 07:27 pm at 7:27 pm |
  22. James

    Obama is for a caring society with opportunities for everybody. Romney is for the rich only and opportunities for them to get richer. That is why we love Obama up here in Canada because we are a caring society that believes in healthcare for all, social prgrams to take care of the less fortunate and the elderly, and equality guaranteed under our Charter of Rights.

    April 23, 2012 07:43 pm at 7:43 pm |
  23. Ron

    I support Obama. But I am appalled by the sarcastic, even evil, tirades against someone because of Mormonism. I will not vote for Romney because of deep policy differences. But there are lots of Mormons I would vote for. I am, frankly, disheartened by the religious and racial bigotry that continues to run rampant in this country. And apparently people love to use their anonymity on posts like this to express it.

    April 23, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  24. Al Chou

    Thank you for Healthcare reform.
    Thank you for killing Bin Laden.
    Faux channel: Bin Laden was kiilled by Seal and not by Obama
    Rebuttal: Agreed. But God forbid, had any of the Seal gotten killed, who would have gotten the blame?
    Obama. That's why we credited Obama when things went right.
    Thank you for killing Al warlaki.
    Thank you for liberating Libyans without shedding a single drop of American blood.
    Thank your for sending more boots to the border in 3 years than the last guy did in 8 years.
    Thank you for Wal Street reform.
    Thank you for Creditcard reform.
    Thank you for equal pay for women.
    Thank you for making sure the drones are armed, locked, and loaded.

    Thank you for 3.875% mortgage interest for my 3500 sqft home in a 17200 sqft lot
    in wine country.

    What did I miss?
    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

    April 23, 2012 07:53 pm at 7:53 pm |
  25. clownshoes

    Aftet living in Illinois for 30 years, I dont think I can ever vote for a Democrat. Theyve done nothing but screw up this state and raise taxes on everything.

    April 23, 2012 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
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