Poll: Dead heat in Arizona
April 25th, 2012
02:34 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Dead heat in Arizona

(CNN) - Is Arizona truly a battleground state?

The jury's still out, but a second straight survey this week does indicate that it's all knotted up between President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Arizona.

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According to a Rocky Mountain Poll released Wednesday, 42% of registered voters in Arizona say they support Obama, with 40% backing Romney and a high 18% undecided. The president's two percent margin is well within the survey's sampling error, meaning it's basically a dead heat in Arizona.

A poll released Monday from Arizona State University's Merrill/Morrison Institute indicated 42%-40% margin for Romney among registered voters in Arizona, again a dead heat.

The two point margin for Obama in the new Rocky Mountain poll is a switch from January, when Romney held a six point advantage over Obama.

According to the new poll, Obama holds a 16 point advantage over independent voters and a 39 point lead among Hispanic voters.

Bill Clinton's 1996 win in Arizona was the last time the Democrats carried the state in a presidential election. Sen. John McCain won his home state by 8 points over Obama in 2008.

But with McCain not on the ballot this time around, and with the state's Hispanic population continuing to grow, Democrats think they can put Arizona in play this November.

"We think we have a real shot at winning the presidential race here in Arizona," said Vice President Joe Biden, campaigning in the state last week.

Biden added the Obama re-election campaign was actively working to generate support in the state.

But Republicans disagree. Last week Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, on a conference call with reporters, said the idea of Arizona turning blue was a "mirage."

The Rocky Mountain Poll was conducted by Behavior Research Center from April 9-17, with 511 registered voters in Arizona questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

CNN's Kevin Liptak contributed to this report

Filed under: 2012 • Arizona
soundoff (37 Responses)
  1. patNY

    Won't be surprised if AZ now places some crazy right wing referendum on the ballot to get its base to the polls.

    April 25, 2012 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  2. Carrie

    Team Bishop Romney will do whatever it takes to Surpress the votes of the minorities, blacks, the elderly on SS, Hispanics, & yes the Haddicapped. What a piece of work. Romney is total Slimeball.

    April 25, 2012 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  3. Rudy NYC

    patNY wrote:

    Won't be surprised if AZ now places some crazy right wing referendum on the ballot to get its base to the polls.
    Good call. I would be happy to see them try it.
    Doing so would only bring out more Democrats to the polls just to put a stop to it.

    April 25, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  4. Moderate Sean

    I think Arizona has "finally" reched Republican saturation or overload. They have finally become tired of all the "nutty" and extreme right-wingers! As a past resident of Arizona, I would love to see the state go blue once again! Romney is just not presidential material!!

    April 25, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  5. Myviewis

    Of course Arizona will give Obama the win, illegal Mexicans keep thinking that Obama will finally come through and fix their immigration status. We know central and south americans are very few in Arizona. Arizona is about Mexicans crossing over.

    April 25, 2012 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  6. Myviewis

    I don't think it matter if Arizona goes red or blue, the majority to make the decision for Arizona will be the Mexicans, so who ever meets the Mexican needs that will be who wins Arizona. Remember guys, Arizona is about Mexicans.

    April 25, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  7. rs

    As a resident in Arizona, I can say there is a clear plan to try to bar Obama from the ballot based on a "Birther" "invesitgation" that determined the e-copy of Obama's birth certificate to be a fraud.

    Having said that, given the absolutely insane behavior of the GOP-lead state legislature (with anti-women; pro-gun; anti-immigrant;anti-tax; militia establishing; successionist-threatening; anti-environmental; pro-uranium mining [in Grand Canyon!]; pro-nuclear waste facility; anti-abortionist; anti-birth control; anti-ethnic studies; anti-evolution; Bible in school curriculum bills), pretty much anyone with a room-temperature IQ hates them. They define OVER-REACH.

    April 25, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  8. rs

    Myviews- illegal immigrants can't vote.

    April 25, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  9. Holla

    Good news from red to blue state. Still strongly believe in Obama/Biden 2012.

    April 25, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  10. mrindependent

    Go for it Mr President Obama !! I also hope democrats win some of the deep south crazy states. My main interest in making sure that some of the crazy laws on gun control and repealed and republicans get back to issues of fiscal responsibility than being a party of crazy. This country really needs a strong republican party.

    April 25, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  11. JakeAZ

    No we haven't seen dead heat yet, but come June with temps in the 110+ range and then we can start talking about "dead heat." All the rest of this political back and forth blah blah is just so much hot air hardly worth looking at the thermometer over.

    April 25, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  12. Alexanders

    Sorry, Myviews, what do you expect? that's what it used to be Mexico. Plus, Central and sounth Americans are all over the u.s. Same bs. So, dont be and Idiot.

    April 25, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  13. Yomi Olalere

    Yes the state of Arizona will go democratic this time.

    The only thing Mitt Romney wants to focus on is the econom. Yes economy is improving and it hasn't fully recovered but don't tell me there are no jobs otherwise, I wouldn't be getting calls and emails from Recruiters almost every day to be considered for an opportunity.

    It is the responsibility of everyone to take the ownership of their career by going for re-training in new skills and continually developing and shappening the existing skills. Gone were those days of having just one line of career!

    Except you are a medical doctor or a lawyer, it is almost certainly impossibe to depend on just one career as a continous means of livelihood. This is the reality of the 21st century economy.

    Please don't say there are no jobs but there is a disturbing vacuum of skills. The US economy is certainly producing jobs , but not the kind of old factory or computer desktop jobs.

    God bless America as a country.

    April 25, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  14. Luke,AZ

    AZ could definitely turn Blue this November. I have been here 30 yrs and Arizona is a battleground state with 30% being Democratic, 40% Independent and 30% Republican. Romney is not inspiring and does not possess any leadership qualities. President Obama would have won AZ in 2008 if McCain wasn't running. McCain won 54% to 46%.

    April 25, 2012 03:04 pm at 3:04 pm |
  15. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    Myviewis, for FYI the majority of Hispanics in Arizona are 3rd, 4th and 5th generation Hispanics born in the good old USA and illegals don't vote. FYI, there has been a swing in what used to be a Republican controlled Local Government which is now leaning Democrat and those changes alone can change any Red State to Blue. So know your facts and stop "leaning on Hispanics" when you don't know or understand the facts.

    April 25, 2012 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  16. Lionel

    Arizona will turn blue. I can't wait for November.

    I have contacted all of my friends in Arizona and gotten them signed up to vote. I can't believe what the Republicans are doing. They will pay for in dearly unless they cheat in the election. Let's get out the vote and sign up for the Obama campaign.

    Latinos for Obama 2012

    April 25, 2012 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  17. Hal Jordan

    Obama sued Arizona and went after the immensely popular Sheriff Joe Arpaio, so he will be beaten badly here...again. Also, Governor Jan Brewer vetoed the "Arizona Birther Bill," so Obama will definitely be on the ballot. When the Supreme Court rules in favor of our immigration law (Senate Bill 1070), that will be another pie in Obama's face. So no, Arizona is not now and will never be a Blue State.

    April 25, 2012 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  18. Myviewis

    @rs-did you not watch TV reports of groups fighting in states like Arizona making sure people do not get asked for ID when voting so that illegals can vote?

    April 25, 2012 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  19. Investment Advisor

    Dead Heat? Sure it is.

    April 25, 2012 03:20 pm at 3:20 pm |
  20. Myviewis

    @Alexanders – thank you for being rude. Central and South Americans are a very small, tiny number in the US and contrary to your uninformed opinion most candidates don't bother with these very small number of people. Mexicans are the people candidates go after because there are millions of them in the USA and they will vote for whomever gives them imigration hope and yes many groups fight for illegal Mexicans to be allowed to vote.

    April 25, 2012 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  21. Investment Advisor

    @ Lionel...Are you an "illegal"? Hope I don't offend you for asking.

    April 25, 2012 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  22. Rick in Phx

    @Luke, AZ

    I can tell you're an Independent like myself and many others living in Arizona. For those that don't live here in Az. quit with the mexicans deciding who will win Arizona. The Majority of voters in Arizona are just simply tired of our republican officials making Arizona the laughing stock of the United States. The truth is that it's only so close because Az has such a large Mormon population. For those that live here we saw this comming years ago. California has become so expensive that this state now has a larger transplant population from California.

    April 25, 2012 03:23 pm at 3:23 pm |
  23. Gurgyl

    Arizona, just go vote for direct democratic ticket and Obama. God bless.
    Mitt sells this nation to china.

    April 25, 2012 03:27 pm at 3:27 pm |
  24. woohoo

    Maybe the supreme court will slap Obama back to Arizona

    April 25, 2012 03:29 pm at 3:29 pm |
  25. Bill

    The state will be won by Obama in November. End of story.

    April 25, 2012 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
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