Poll: Romney, Obama dead even in dozen swing states
May 7th, 2012
09:24 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Romney, Obama dead even in dozen swing states

(CNN) - With just under six months before Election Day, a new poll indicates President Barack Obama is nearly dead even with rival Mitt Romney in 12 battleground states.

Obama holds a slight two-percentage point advantage–47%-45%–over Romney among registered voters, according to the USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll. The margin is well within the sampling error.

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The margin is smaller than when the poll was last conducted in March, when Obama held a nine-point lead over Romney. Since then, however, two of Romney's Republican opponents – Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich – dropped out of the race, paving a clear path for Romney to the GOP nomination.

The dozen states surveyed in the poll were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

In terms of performance, 46% of voters said Romney would do a good job handling the economy, while 34% said the same about Obama.

The president, however, scored higher in favorability ratings, with 58% saying the president is likable and 31% describing Romney as likable.

Also notable, Democrats have made ground in the enthusiasm gap, according to the poll. For the first time in the last five battleground surveys, more Democrats (57%) than Republicans (46%) said they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting.

The results came the same day as a Politico/George Washington University poll showed Romney with a two-percentage point margin over Obama, a difference also well within the sampling error.

For the USAToday/Gallup Poll, 951 registered voters were questioned by telephone in the 12 swing states between April 26 and May 2. The sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Also see:

Romney adviser left after being silenced, source says

Ayotte: I'm more qualified than Obama

Gingrich steps up support for Romney, predicts Mourdock wins in Indiana

Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (103 Responses)
  1. Blindersoff

    Don't fall for the devil's trick America, we are not to be controlled by these puppet masters. The news media along with the political process is trying to hype the candidates up as if the election is as simple as a sporting event. 1 for this side and 2 for the other side, 3 for this side and still 2 for the other side. How quickly minds changes from one hour to the next. Stand your ground America. todays candidate is that same candidate from yesterday and will be still the same tomorrow. Romney will always be Romney (core-less, fake and forever trying to Etch-A-Sketch his way out and in) Obama will always be progressive favoring and implementing social reform promoting new liberal ideas establishing a relatively progressive government favoring and promoting change through innovation.

    May 7, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  2. Rosco1776

    Ignoring Ron Paul as usual, well he's won the majority of delegates in 7 states and growing, that ignoring thing is paying off!

    Ron Paul 2012 or BU$T !!

    May 7, 2012 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  3. frank

    & than there is Daley, He is going to Expose Romneys hundreds of Skeetons. Swiss Bank Accounts anyone??

    May 7, 2012 09:42 am at 9:42 am |
  4. Mary

    I'm curious, how many young people are questioned in these polls? I'm young, and I've not heard of any young college kids getting a call on their cell phone from Rasmussen or CNN or whatever. If these pollsters are only polling older people with landlines and getting results like this, Obama has an advantage. Young people tend to vote Democrat and can break this tie.

    May 7, 2012 09:42 am at 9:42 am |
  5. John

    Cone on. Do you really think that we believe that Romney is tied with Obama.. Obama's rally last week dwarfed any and all Romney's rallies. Don't make me laugh

    May 7, 2012 09:43 am at 9:43 am |
  6. Flipper Rmoney Failure Ahead

    This poll looks very suspect. There is very little evidence of the alleged Rmoney support in Michigan.

    May 7, 2012 09:48 am at 9:48 am |
  7. sayer

    Please tell me we can't be this stupid. Obama 2012!

    May 7, 2012 09:48 am at 9:48 am |
  8. Sniffit

    Quinnipiac has Obama in the lead in Ohio and Pennsylvania by 2% and 8%, respectively, and behind by only 1% in likely-red Florida. It's very easy to cherry-pick which polls to report so your article can have the desired slant.

    May 7, 2012 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  9. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    The personhood candidate, Mittens, has been parking his foreign made bus at Obama events, so that must be rallying the mental midgets who vote GOP.

    May 7, 2012 09:55 am at 9:55 am |
  10. frank

    The Fact that USA Today doesnt rank Arizona as a Key Swing State shows you they are Truely The Fox News of Print.

    May 7, 2012 09:55 am at 9:55 am |
  11. frank

    This is like rassmussens Poll of Mr Personality tied with Woman.

    May 7, 2012 09:56 am at 9:56 am |

    Virginia and Ohio will decide this election.

    May 7, 2012 09:57 am at 9:57 am |
  13. Four and The Door

    In terms of performance, 46% of voters said Romney would do a good job handling the economy, while 34% said the same about Obama....
    It's obvious that 34% of voters didn't understand the question. Sometimes when you answer the phone maybe the neighbor is running his leaf blower, or the TV is up too loud... there are several reasonable explanations.

    May 7, 2012 10:01 am at 10:01 am |
  14. Jeff Brown in Jersey

    This is smoke and mirrors. President Obama is way ahead in the electoral college; he is running the table when it comes to densely populated states. The popular vote is meaningless. Remember it was Al Gore who won the popular vote in 2000.

    May 7, 2012 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  15. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Mittens cannot win without Florida, and while it is close, there are a lot of seniors and veterans that must not have heard about the Ryan/Romney Plan.

    May 7, 2012 10:03 am at 10:03 am |
  16. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Since Romney has no economic plan other than bigger tax cuts for the wealthy, 46% of the respondents must not have heard the question.

    May 7, 2012 10:05 am at 10:05 am |
  17. Fair is Fair

    "In terms of performance, 46% of voters said Romney would do a good job handling the economy, while 34% said the same about Obama."
    Again, the polls are of questionable value at this stage, but when you couple this with the one showing him 10 points behind with independents and Obama has to be concerned.

    May 7, 2012 10:05 am at 10:05 am |
  18. Gurgyl

    Swiss bank account, cayman islands stashing money, bain capital, tells all. GOP thugs!!!

    May 7, 2012 10:05 am at 10:05 am |
  19. NameElizabeth

    I would like to see a poll of individual swing states because there is no way that Robmey is tied with President Obama. I wonder if this is the same poll that had Robmey up by 5 points while everyone else had President Obama up by 5-9 points. This is just the media's way of trying to influence the election because they know that Mr. "No personality" has no chance.

    May 7, 2012 10:11 am at 10:11 am |
  20. ST

    Whether they are tied up, dead even or lose up, Romney without these blocs: women, Hispanics, blacks, young voters; there is no way he can win the election. NO WAY!

    May 7, 2012 10:13 am at 10:13 am |
  21. Joan

    Polls are only as good as the questions asked and the true cross section of people phoned. The young person on this board who commented that none of her young friends with cell phones ever gets called was right on. The majority of working people now have cell phones and can't be called. That means polls in this day and age are not reliable and old fashioned. Also, you can tell which organizations are slanting the polls. Rasmussen is never going to really shed a positive light on President Obama. They might once in a while to look credible, but they are definitely slanted towards the right. It was interesting how CNN touted its poll a couple of weeks ago which showed Pres. Obama really doing well and then the next day they threw their pollsters under the bus and starting mentioning a poll of polls who disputed that. I guess they got an angry call from the RNC. People who follow elections know polls are for the pundits to have talking points and are about as reliable as horoscopes. Instead of wasting so much time talking about polls, why doesn't the media do more honest fact checking? Wouldn't a daily or weekly show that just focussed on exposing the real truth be a refreshing change?

    May 7, 2012 10:16 am at 10:16 am |
  22. rla

    The swing has started and will continue until a land slide victory for Romney in November. Sorry liberals but this will not get better' Oh yea - the romney-ryan plan saves SS while Obama policies drive people from seeking jobs, crushes the nation economacally , while we drown in debt!!! Wow what an easy choice

    May 7, 2012 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  23. YoBabyYoBabyYoBabyYo

    Willard wants to run the country like he would run a business. Helloooooooo, Mitt, we're in the trouble we're in precisely beCAUSE this country has been run like a business. A business' only concern is making money and that's exactly what politicians have been doing in Washington for years; not serving the people, serving themselves. Take your business experience stick it where the Sun don't shine.

    May 7, 2012 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  24. rla

    YO BABY- The name says it all!!!! The democrats only concern has been to raise the debt, pander to the have not base, divide the country and lie???? What's not to like????

    May 7, 2012 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  25. Wake up people

    @Flipper Romney. I usually agree with most of your posts, but I have to disagree this time. Robmey has plenty of support from the rich in Michigan. He has most of Oakland County (ie, Troy, Sterling Heights, Birmingham, Rochester, Farmington) and some in Macomb County. And let's not forget clan headquarters in Howell. No one in the Detroit area supports him. And I have been actively campaigning for our POTUS even offering to drive people to the polls.

    OBAMA 2012!

    May 7, 2012 10:21 am at 10:21 am |
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