CNN’s GUT CHECK for May 15, 2012

CNN's GUT CHECK | for May 15, 2012 | 5 p.m.
– n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle

DEVELOPING… DEBT CEILING DÉJÀ VU: At the Peterson Foundation to Annual Fiscal Summit, Speaker John Boehner talks to CNN’s Erin Burnett about his “line in the sand”:

SPEAKER JOHN BOEHNER IN HIS SPEECH AT THE SUMMIT: “When the time comes, I will again insist on my simple principle of cuts and reforms greater than the debt limit increase… If that means we have to do a series of stop-gap measures, so be it – but that's not the ideal.”

ERIN BURNETT, ASKING HIM LATER ABOUT THAT STATEMENT: Chris Van Hollen (D-Maryland) said that is a "line in the sand…"

BOEHNER: It is a line in the sand! It is a line in the sand because Washington has kicked the can down the road, kicked the can down the road, kicked the can down the road and the American people think we are crazy. They are ready for Washington to take action. I’m here. I’m ready to do it. Let’s go.

BURNETT: So, what exactly would you cut? If you let the Bush tax cuts go away that’s 2-point-8 trillion right there.

BOEHNER: Oh yeah. What would it do to our economy? Put tens of millions of more Americans out of work? Remember, there is an appropriate level of taxation that will generate maximum income to the federal government if we get more Americans working. So it’s got to be a mix. We have got to have real economic growth and we’ve got to have real controls on spending.

TRAIL TRIVIA
(Answer below)
What presidential hopeful was shot and paralyzed on this day in history?

MARK (@PrestonCNN) & MICHELLE (@MJaconiCNN)
What caught our eye today in politics

In the past 24 hours, Rep. Ron Paul’s campaign stated not once, but twice that the Texas Republican congressman wasn’t suspending his presidential campaign. At the same time, there was an acknowledgment that Paul’s quest for the Republican nomination was over.

It is now time for Paul to focus on trying to influence the Republican presidential platform, including his views on the Federal Reserve, Internet freedom and the declaration of war. The congressman will continue to try to amass delegates to bolster his hand in Tampa, but he has no plans on being a disruptive force. He is working with the Romney campaign and has no plans to run as a third party candidate. This can only help his son.

Paul is retiring at the end of the year and he will turn 77 a week before Mitt Romney accepts the GOP nomination this summer.

If President Obama wins a second term in November, one of the many Republicans who will be looking to run for president in 2016 is Paul. That is, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky.

If Rand Paul decides to run for president, his father’s torch could be passed down to him, a flame that is fueled by fervent grassroots support. Rand Paul is a favorite of conservative activists and tea party supporters. He shares many of the same views as his father, yet he has more mainstream appeal.

A person close to Rand Paul noted that if the Kentucky Republican chooses to run for president in 2016, “He will inherit the large majority” of people who backed his father. But this person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, also noted the “anti-war left” part of his father’s coalition wouldn’t support the senator.

In a Republican primary, shedding these supporters would not be such a bad thing.

Ashley Ryan, the incoming Republican national committeewoman from Maine, tells Gut Check that Rand Paul would not automatically get the support of his father’s supporters, but noted he has an edge.

“I think Rand definitely has a leg up already on everybody,” said Ryan, who is 21 years old. “He is a household name and already has recognition in a good way.”

Ron Paul’s presidential campaign has come to an end, but the Texas congressman did it in a way that can only help his son, who too, has his eye on the White House.

the LEDE
Did you miss it?

Leading CNNPolitics: Romney, GOP try to shift focus to deficit
Mitt Romney will continue his blitz against President Barack Obama over the federal deficit on Tuesday, signaling a GOP shift away from social issues and back to what Republicans consider the president's Achilles' heel: the economy.

Leading Drudge: I’ll Take Mitt
Mitt Romney has the support of George W. Bush. “I’m for Mitt Romney,” Bush told ABC News this morning as the doors of an elevator closed on him, after he gave a speech on human rights a block from his old home — the White House.

Leading HuffPo: Nebraska Election 2012: 'Wild Finish' Expected In GOP Primary As Conservatives Split Support
Tuesday's Nebraska Republican Senate primary has divided the conservative movement, essentially pitting Rick Santorum against Sarah Palin against Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).

Leading Politico: The President Obama-Jamie Dimon saga
Jamie Dimon was once the silver-haired hero of Wall Street, scooping up failing banks during the worst of the financial crisis and avoiding the kind of toxic mortgage bonds that sent competitors into bankruptcy and pushed the American economy to the brink.

Leading New York Times: A 30,000-Foot View on the Presidential Race
We are beginning to see more national surveys now, including this week’s New York Times/CBS News poll, which show Mitt Romney with a slight lead over President Obama in the general election matchup. To be sure, there are also a number of polls that put Mr. Obama slightly ahead. But his lead does seem to have narrowed — from about three or four points in an average of national polls a month or two ago to more like a point or so in surveys today.

TRAIL MOMENTS
The political bites of the day

- Geithner on JPMorgan: ‘a very powerful case for reform’ -
TIM GEITHNER AT A FISCAL SUMMIT IN WASHINGTON: “I think this failure of risk management is just a very powerful case for reform… We are going to work very hard to ensure that these reforms are tough and effective, not just the Volcker rule, but the broader complement of reforms on capital and liquidity in derivatives markets again so that when firms make a mistake, which is inevitable, those mistakes don’t put at risk the broader fortunes, the broader health, the broader security of the economy as a whole.”

- Paul (non)campaign: not suspending, just not actively campaigning -
JESSE BENNTON, PAUL’S NATIONAL CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN, ON A CONFERENCE CALL: “We believe that we still have very, very strong things that we can accomplish by continuing this campaign; and Dr. Paul is continuing our campaign. Dr. Paul is not suspending his campaign and he is not dropping out of the race.”

- Obama handicaps how same-sex marriage will play in 2012 on a set full of privileged women in upper Manhattan -
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA ON ABC’S “THE VIEW”: “I think it's very hard to say. There’s no doubt that for some folks who have very sincere, legitimate beliefs about traditional marriage, and who do so because they appreciate that family is the foundation of this country and healthy communities. I think some will say, look, I like Barack, but I strongly disagree with him on this. And I’ve got friends, I’ve got pastors and great supporters who say, look, we love you, but we disagree with you on this thing.”

- Obama’s “real” handicap -
JIMMY FALLON JOKED ABOUT THE OBAMA-BIDEN RELATIONSHIP ON HIS LATE NIGHT TALK SHOW: “I read that on Saturday, President Obama and Joe Biden spent more than four hours playing golf together. Joe Biden's handicap was 20; while Obama's handicap is Joe Biden.”

TOP TWEETS
What stopped us in 140 characters or less

[tweet https://twitter.com/#!/JRubinBlogger/status/202463598092615680%5D

[tweet https://twitter.com/#!/HouseInSession/status/202440983730860033%5D

[tweet https://twitter.com/#!/GOP12/status/202411299634806787%5D

[tweet https://twitter.com/#!/SteveSebelius/status/202411213550919680%5D

[tweet https://twitter.com/#!/ErinBurnett/status/202387792247009281%5D

TRIVIA ANSWER

On May 15, 1972, Arthur Bremer, a 21-year-old busboy, shot presidential hopeful and former Alabama Gov. George Wallace in the chest and stomach while Wallace was at a campaign event in Laurel, Maryland. The injuries left Wallace paralyzed from the waist down. However, Wallace went on to win the Maryland primary the next day.

According to a report by The Washington Post, the shots caused multiple wounds, led to a several month hospital stay and effectively ended Wallace’s third attempt at the presidency. It was not his last though. Even after being paralyzed, Wallace unsuccessfully ran for president again in 1979.

At the time of his trial, Bremer said he shot Wallace because of a desire to become famous. The assassin went on to serve 35 years of his 53-year prison sentence and was released in 2007 because of good behavior.

As governor of Alabama, Wallace was an ardent segregationist. He promised his followers, “Segregation now! Segregation tomorrow! Segregation forever!” Wallace failed to make good on the campaign promise. The federal government forced Alabama to admit black students to public schools, including the University of Alabama, during his time as governor.

Over the years, Wallace began to change his views on segregation and civil rights. In 1979, Wallace made a surprise visit to the Dexter Avenue Baptist Church in Montgomery, Alabama. “I have learned what suffering means. In a way that was impossible [before the shooting], I think I can understand something of the pain black people have come to endure,” Wallace told the congregation. “I know I contributed to that pain, and I can only ask your forgiveness.”

Wallace’s transformation connected with Alabama’s African-American electorate. When he ran for governor again in 1983, he won the position and received overwhelming support from the black community.

Gut Check Winner’s Circle
(Why aren’t you in it)
Both Marc Tomik (@marctomik) and Matthew Gilbertson (@MattRGilbertson) correctly answered Gut Check Trivia today. Congrats to both.

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