Poll: New evidence that it's a close contest in Florida
June 21st, 2012
08:33 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: New evidence that it's a close contest in Florida

(CNN) - A new poll indicates President Barack Obama holds a very slight advantage over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in the battleground state of Florida.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey, 46% of registered voters in the Sunshine State say if the presidential election were held today, they’d vote for Obama, with 42% saying they'd back Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and presumptive GOP nominee. The president's four-point advantage is just within the poll's sampling error.

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The survey's Thursday morning release comes just a few hours before Romney is in Florida, to address the annual meeting of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, a gathering that's being called the "Latino Political Convention." The president is scheduled to address the NALEO gathering Friday afternoon.

The new numbers are a shift from last month, when a Quinnipiac University poll indicated Romney with a 47%-41% lead in Florida. A shift in independent voters from Romney to Obama appears to be a contributing factor to swing in the overall numbers toward the president. Romney held a 44%-36% advantage among independents in the May survey. Now Obama holds a 46%-37% lead among independents.

According to the poll, Romney has a four-point margin over Obama on which man would do a better job on the economy. Florida voters are split on which candidate would create more jobs, and the president has a five-point advantage on doing more "to advance the economic interests of middle class Americans."

"The president is doing better among independent voters. It also is worth noting that the last Quinnipiac University Florida poll was on the heels of the president's backing of gay marriage, which might have hurt him at that time," says Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute

"At this point, Romney is not well-defined in the minds of many voters, especially those in the middle. This movement reflects that uncertainty among voters who are up for grabs," adds Brown.

An NBC/Marist poll released in late May indicated the president with a 48%-44% margin over Romney in Florida.

Then-Sen. Barack Obama won the state by three points over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election. The state is classified as a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map in 2012. There are 29 electoral votes at stake in Florida.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted between June 12 and June 18, with 1,697 registered voters in Florida questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

Also see:

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Obama campaign: Setting expectations for a brawl

Pro-Obama super PAC raises $4 million in May

Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (20 Responses)
  1. The GOP needs to pack up and leave

    Wait - you mean that for the first time in 12 years, Florida isn't going to be an embarrassment to the south and actually become a blue state?

    June 21, 2012 08:37 am at 8:37 am |
  2. wade

    Yea yea yea yada yada yada ydaa . Every other poll shows Romney with as much as a 9 point lead. So CNN shows one that helps to give hope to Obama. WOW CNN so LIBERAL. Quinnipiac is notoriously wrong. Yesterday CNN released a BLOOMBERG poll that no kidding said Obama was double digits ahead of Romney even though every Professional poll shows Romney ahead of Obama. The lengths that CNN will go to to assist Obama is just amazing. Even when it is pure fantasy and using discredited Pollsters.

    June 21, 2012 08:50 am at 8:50 am |
  3. Anonymous

    How is Obama getting a big bounce since the last poll & Romney dropping "close"? And you use a picture of "sad Obama" when the poll says he's LEADING. Talk about media bias.

    June 21, 2012 09:03 am at 9:03 am |
  4. SafeJourney

    Romney wants to be president, one of the officials said, "he ought to answer single, direct questions about his positions... If there is one consistent quality he has shown, it is evasiveness. They don't want to be scrutinized."

    In my opinion, it is the ONLY consistent quality he has shown.

    June 21, 2012 09:04 am at 9:04 am |
  5. Tony

    There is no conceivable scenario in which Romney can win without winning Florida. Right-wing opinionmakers have been writing many columns lately about Obama and his allies panicking. Talk about wishful thinking. Get real, people. Have you seen the latest Bloomberg poll? If not, how about the Quinnipiac University poll in Florida?

    June 21, 2012 09:09 am at 9:09 am |
  6. NameBill

    If Obama can take Florida, it's over and out for Romney

    June 21, 2012 09:10 am at 9:10 am |
  7. Dave

    Yes, another bad sign for our current and soon to be former President.

    June 21, 2012 09:16 am at 9:16 am |
  8. Joe from CT, not Lieberman

    That is why it is important for Rick Scott to complete his purge of all Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independents from the voting rolls in Florida!

    June 21, 2012 09:32 am at 9:32 am |
  9. don

    The GOP has vgiven up all of its principles to nominate Romney. I can't imagine any real republicans being willing to say they voted for him win or lose. Does ANYONE know what he stands for or believes?

    June 21, 2012 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  10. Obama 2012 - BEND Forward America, NOT a third term of BUSH's years of FAILURE

    If there is no difference between Obama and Rmoney, why are the KOCH BROTHERS spending $400 million to defeat Obama.

    Anyway, all the money in this world may not buy the election for Mr Rmoney.

    June 21, 2012 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  11. J.V.Hodgson

    Well,well, if Obama wins Florida he is re-elected.
    It is interesting that in all the articles written you as media just focus on one issue like latino's or Puerto Ricans votes or the generic Economy... middle class wise you dont need a poll to know Obama wins there, that voters think Romney can do a better job on the economy than Obama amazes me. There is not a single economist that backs Romneys positions as improving the economy, budget balancing or debt reduction.
    Meaning he reduces taxes, slashes spending at austerity levels that make your eyes water ( and damages financially the old retirees who live in Florida) and spends more on defense ( not fully funded) and states we should be more war like with Syria and Iran... for gods sake where can that be paid for and from and reduce the national debt!!
    I am a small business man and all this garbage about its too difficult too much government regulation to get Government money is BS. I have never ever missed an opprtunity to get such monies even if the application required a 100 pages.... saying its too difficult because the rules are complicated is even bigger bs BS BS
    PPACA saves small business money in my case, and many others I know at least.... but we are selfish we vote for the party that say less profits tax!!
    Gosh all this thinking makes my head hurt. Republicans will not repeal Obama's complicated, big government rules that give small businesses cash and benefits. DUH, you have to Lol at the meaningless rhetoric.

    June 21, 2012 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  12. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    It is really to early to tell, but this should give each campaign some reason to spend unreasonable sums of money in Florida.

    June 21, 2012 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  13. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    It's going to be a tight race .
    It's therefore incumbent upon us to NOT fall for the hype betweeen now and November and get out there and register people to VOTE. VOTE. VOTE for our President .
    If any President deserves and has EARNED his re-election it's President Barack Hussein Obama.
    Obama 2012. Period.

    June 21, 2012 09:57 am at 9:57 am |

    All the more reason why Gov. Surpression Scott is trying to block the vote.

    June 21, 2012 10:02 am at 10:02 am |
  15. AL In Palm Beach County, FL

    If Scott succeeds in kicking vets, college students, minorities out of the voter rolls Robmey will win the state. Otherwise, WE ARE STAYING BLUE.

    June 21, 2012 10:04 am at 10:04 am |
  16. enuff

    Of course Romney is not well defined in the minds of voters. He hasn't stood for any one issue the entire time he has been running. He is very liberal with his answers so that he can change his mind on an issue to any way the wind blows. All he has been solid on is criticizing the president and using the word "fail" alot. That does not define what he stands on or what he would do.

    June 21, 2012 10:06 am at 10:06 am |
  17. Mike Spahr

    Quinnipiac is in Connecticut... I'd be interested to see where exactly they got their sample group.

    June 21, 2012 10:06 am at 10:06 am |
  18. Vote the Tea Party OUT in 2012

    a slow awakening by voters is better than none at all.

    June 21, 2012 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  19. jerry

    if CNN reports it close...it is going to be a GOP landslide. obama is so desperate he is trying to effect the GOPs ability to raise money...all was fine a year ago when obama was going to have a billion dollar wars chest...hahaha

    June 21, 2012 10:11 am at 10:11 am |
  20. Randy, San Francisco

    The election is going to be close because Romney is burdened by the GOP/Tea Party war on womens' health rights, gays, and Latino immigrants. Romney will have a difficult time flip flopping back to the middle of the political spectrum because of what he said during the primary debates.

    June 21, 2012 10:12 am at 10:12 am |