Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
August 1st, 2012
07:37 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

(CNN) – President Barack Obama has a majority of voters backing him in three critical battleground states, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida 51%-45%, in Ohio 50%-44%, and in Pennsylvania 53%-42%. Florida and Ohio are considered toss-ups in November's general election, while Pennsylvania is rated "lean Obama" on CNN's Electoral Map.

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The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support. Among Romney backers, 10% in Florida and Ohio and 9% in Pennsylvania said they could change their mind before November. Eleven percent of Obama's supporters in Florida said they could change their minds, compared to 13% in Ohio and 15% in Pennsylvania.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, wrote in a statement accompanying the poll's release.

Brown cited better-than-average unemployment rates in Ohio and Florida as possible factors in Obama's lead there, writing that "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally."

Among self-identified independents, Obama edges Romney in Florida 47%-46%, and Ohio 47%-44%. The president's lead among independents in Pennsylvania is more robust, 58%-36%.

A gender gap persists in all three states, where women are more likely to back Obama and men go stronger for Romney.

In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates. Sixty five percent of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president, compared to 49% of Romney's backers who say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.

In Ohio, 60% were "strongly supporting" Obama, compared to 42% who said the same for Romney. And in Pennsylvania, 59% were strong supporters of Obama and 41% were strongly supporting Romney.

On the economy, voters are split between Obama and Romney. Forty seven percent of Floridians said Romney would do a better job handing economic issues, compared to 45% who named Obama.

In Ohio, 46% of voters said Obama would better handle to economy, and 45% picked Romney. Pennsylvanians gave Obama higher marks on the economy, with 48% naming the president as better on the economy and 44% naming Romney.

"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy," Brown said.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll was conducted by telephone July 24-30. In Florida, 1,177 likely voters were polled and the sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Ohio, 1,193 likely voters were called with a sampling error of 2.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a sampling error of 2.9 percentage points.

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Filed under: Florida • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (166 Responses)
  1. Justin

    Economy might be weak, but not as weak as Romney. Read my lips, this race won't be close.

    August 1, 2012 07:49 am at 7:49 am |
  2. Ed1

    If you want four more years of lies, out of control spending, socialism, higher taxes, and one of the worst bills ever passed (Health Care) then vote Obama if not Vote Mitt it's your choice.

    The silent majority needs to wake up and vote in 2012 don't sit on your butts and then complain about the state this country is in VOTE.

    August 1, 2012 07:53 am at 7:53 am |
  3. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    After the senate and house republicans attack on women today to repeal women's health benefits, I would think that number for Obama would go up.

    August 1, 2012 08:06 am at 8:06 am |
  4. tedz

    Among Independent Obama is leading only by 1 point in florida and 3 points in ohio proves that majority of the people that participated in this survey were democrats. thus making this poll irrelevant.

    August 1, 2012 08:08 am at 8:08 am |
  5. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    49% of Romney backers in Florida strongly favor the Gaffer. Makes sense that 51% want someone else. KMA Mittens.

    August 1, 2012 08:09 am at 8:09 am |
  6. Montykoolaid

    Sorry Mitt, either you drop out now and hope the GOP can find someone before the convention, or you screw the GOP come November.

    People are starting to get a good look at you, and its no coincidence they are cringing.

    August 1, 2012 08:10 am at 8:10 am |
  7. Vietnam Vet

    Rigged polls, rigged results.

    August 1, 2012 08:11 am at 8:11 am |
  8. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Foreign policy is not Mittens strong suit. Job creation is not Mittens strong suit. Paying his fair share of taxes is not his strong suit. Transparency in releasing his taxes, his Salt Lake Olympics records, his records as Governor in MA is not his strong suit. Basically, Mittens is not honest, but he is white and is a chickenhawk.

    August 1, 2012 08:12 am at 8:12 am |
  9. Marty, FL

    Can't wait to vote in November for the president.

    Obama / Biden 2012

    August 1, 2012 08:12 am at 8:12 am |
  10. Mike

    This isn't news. The President has been ahead in 8 of the 10 toss up states for quite a while.

    August 1, 2012 08:13 am at 8:13 am |
  11. EX Republican

    I am going to vote Obama because Romney is a disaster too the republican party.
    Romney need to come clean and release the his taxes. Romney made USA look bad in europe, Israel, and aide told someone to kiss his butt. I just dont see myself voteing for Romney. I think a lot of republican will not vote for Romney.

    August 1, 2012 08:15 am at 8:15 am |
  12. clarencewhorley

    CNN, you might want to mention that the poll shows all registered voters (not likely voters) and over samples Dems by 9% in Florida, 8% in Ohio (both have GOP Governors) and 6% in Penn. Just a thought.

    August 1, 2012 08:17 am at 8:17 am |
  13. mm

    Romney is an inept, embarrassing excuse for a candidate. What was the GOP THINKING??? Why didn't they even vet the get before putting him out there? Did they not get the lesson from Sarah Palin?

    They made their bed, they can lie in it. Rick Santorum was right: Mitt Romney is the absolute worst candidate the Republican party could ever run against Barack Obama.

    August 1, 2012 08:18 am at 8:18 am |
  14. Corey

    How do you know who I'm voting for? Or all my family these polls are way wrong

    August 1, 2012 08:18 am at 8:18 am |
  15. Norma Vessels

    I haven't been polled, but you have my rock solid vote in November, President Obama!

    August 1, 2012 08:24 am at 8:24 am |
  16. Al-NY,NY

    "Baloney!!!" "Socialist bias!!" "Not enough republicans polled!!"......the impending whining goes on and on and on.....

    It's still a few months away but Flip and his crew CANNOT spin this in any way towards the "we'll win" claim. Even with him running close on the economy, the gender and enthusiasm gaps are terrible for him.

    August 1, 2012 08:26 am at 8:26 am |
  17. Christopher

    I suspect Obama's national poll numbers are being pulled down by high dissaprovel numbers in red states, as these swing state numbers consistently show him ahead. In the end, these states' electoral votes will decide. The numbers this far into the summer are a good sign for Obama's reelection!

    August 1, 2012 08:26 am at 8:26 am |
  18. jim atmad

    Long way to go, but Mitt Romney can't keep fouling up at every step of the way, like on his overseas trip. After 10 gaffes that I counted on his trip, he ended it on a self-imposed media blackout.

    Now, it comes out that he likely paid zero taxes for an extended period.

    Mitt Romney isn't likable, so he needs to come across as being competent and understanding of regular folks' needs, and he's failing miserably.

    August 1, 2012 08:27 am at 8:27 am |
  19. Maconi

    After all of Governor Romneys, gaffes, lack of exceptable transpiracy, and obvious pandering (without a plan). It is good to see people are starting to finally vote with their heads and not their racist hearts, or partisan football team (whoever wins is fine, as long as he is on my team) mentality. Governor Romney has shown himself to be a male version of Sara Palin and our country will be permanetly damaged both domestically and globally if he is elected. Obama/Biden 2012

    August 1, 2012 08:27 am at 8:27 am |

    Mitt Romney a demonstrated succcess. Barak Obama a proven failure.

    August 1, 2012 08:29 am at 8:29 am |
  21. Yonni

    Mitt never been a competition for the able and capable president; it is sad that we have to endure Mitten's and his sponsors insult on our nation until November

    August 1, 2012 08:31 am at 8:31 am |
  22. T. A. Martin

    Sigh... I hope I can survive three more months of this.

    Multi-year campaigning is just too much.

    August 1, 2012 08:33 am at 8:33 am |
  23. John

    Obama is going to beat Romney like a drum. Especially now that we know that Romney did not pay taxes on the returns he does not want to retlease.

    August 1, 2012 08:35 am at 8:35 am |
  24. Duke5343

    I Belive the polls as much as i believe Obama is going to get re-elected- has shown his true colors and it is NOT black & 1/2 white- he cares not for blacks in US only their vote- and rememebr YOU Did NOT BUILD that business USG did

    August 1, 2012 08:35 am at 8:35 am |
  25. truindep

    now the polls count, but only when they poll in Obama's favor, if this is true, it wont last

    August 1, 2012 08:35 am at 8:35 am |
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