Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
August 1st, 2012
07:37 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

(CNN) – President Barack Obama has a majority of voters backing him in three critical battleground states, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida 51%-45%, in Ohio 50%-44%, and in Pennsylvania 53%-42%. Florida and Ohio are considered toss-ups in November's general election, while Pennsylvania is rated "lean Obama" on CNN's Electoral Map.

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The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support. Among Romney backers, 10% in Florida and Ohio and 9% in Pennsylvania said they could change their mind before November. Eleven percent of Obama's supporters in Florida said they could change their minds, compared to 13% in Ohio and 15% in Pennsylvania.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, wrote in a statement accompanying the poll's release.

Brown cited better-than-average unemployment rates in Ohio and Florida as possible factors in Obama's lead there, writing that "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally."

Among self-identified independents, Obama edges Romney in Florida 47%-46%, and Ohio 47%-44%. The president's lead among independents in Pennsylvania is more robust, 58%-36%.

A gender gap persists in all three states, where women are more likely to back Obama and men go stronger for Romney.

In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates. Sixty five percent of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president, compared to 49% of Romney's backers who say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.

In Ohio, 60% were "strongly supporting" Obama, compared to 42% who said the same for Romney. And in Pennsylvania, 59% were strong supporters of Obama and 41% were strongly supporting Romney.

On the economy, voters are split between Obama and Romney. Forty seven percent of Floridians said Romney would do a better job handing economic issues, compared to 45% who named Obama.

In Ohio, 46% of voters said Obama would better handle to economy, and 45% picked Romney. Pennsylvanians gave Obama higher marks on the economy, with 48% naming the president as better on the economy and 44% naming Romney.

"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy," Brown said.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll was conducted by telephone July 24-30. In Florida, 1,177 likely voters were polled and the sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Ohio, 1,193 likely voters were called with a sampling error of 2.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a sampling error of 2.9 percentage points.

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Filed under: Florida • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (166 Responses)
  1. Dumbpolitics

    Great! Now I get to keep my home and land. I won't be giving a pitchfork to work the lands of the 1%. I don't have to be a serf.

    August 1, 2012 09:10 am at 9:10 am |
  2. Marc

    Romney feels like he deserves the presidency – that he doesnt have to earn it or get it. People are starting to realize that. This guy better shape up and tell us who he is and what he is about if he doesn't want to get crushed in this upcoming election. Obama is going to win by a landslide – to be perfectly honest, as a Democrat, I'm not happy with Obama, but it's the republican's fault for making romney campaign from the far, ignorant right. If Romney ran on his principles, his moderation, his from the center of the isle, he'd destroy Obama.

    August 1, 2012 09:12 am at 9:12 am |
  3. Ancient Texan

    Just look at the name on the poll! Nobody but libs will believe the results. Probably taken at the DNC headquarters.

    August 1, 2012 09:12 am at 9:12 am |
  4. Milton K. Wiah

    With the economy is not on the president side because of the problem from us(Europe) Romney should be ahead
    by 20 to 30 points. But he does not have any case to present to the American people. His record as
    governor in MA is no go zone because it will link him with the healthcare, his record at Bain is no go zone because
    then the Democrats will question that which will bring back the question of tax returns.
    Now he is caught between two situations. The only solution is to release the tax return so that he will be
    proud of his record at Bain.

    August 1, 2012 09:12 am at 9:12 am |
  5. Randy, San Francisco

    Romney is behind because he is turning out to be a weak candidate: he didn't pay any taxes for 10 years; he makes too many verbal gaffes like Palin, can't run on his record as Mass governor; created a health care plan that became a model for Obama Care; and can't run on his business record because he sent jobs overseas and put people out of work.

    August 1, 2012 09:12 am at 9:12 am |
  6. Rudy NYC

    Mike asked:

    Why do each of the polls oversample Democrats from 6-9 percentage points? Talk about a skewed poll.
    Why? Because the polls are representative of the percentage of registered voters in those states. DUH.

    August 1, 2012 09:14 am at 9:14 am |
  7. Mrs. Katz

    Americans have seen what a disaster Mitt the Twit would be as President after his calamitous trip overseas.

    August 1, 2012 09:15 am at 9:15 am |
  8. Ed in Alabama

    I'm voting for President Obama because I believe Romney is a deceitful man. A man's character is what matters most.

    August 1, 2012 09:16 am at 9:16 am |
  9. guest

    I love how conservatives like to talk about how BO supports lazy, welfare and so on when history & facts shows the highest welfare recipients are in the red states and mostly consumed by caucasians. Just a little fact for the bigot, hillbilly, right wing extremists who keep spouting out the same Rush & FOX talking points.

    August 1, 2012 09:16 am at 9:16 am |
  10. we james

    Obuma is NOT going to be re-elected. He is by far the worse president EVER! He evern makes Carter look good. I can't wait until the REAL election and Romney is the winner. Those in charge of polling are even corrupt. Why don't they poll even amounts of each party? I cannot wait until the day this pompous ass goes back to Chicago!

    August 1, 2012 09:17 am at 9:17 am |
  11. OT

    Romney kind of economic policies brought us to the brink. Obama's didn't completely save us. So how's the secretive business hot shot the solution rather than the problem? Look what his kinds did in the UK before spewing any more of this Republican propaganda. We had 8 years of this, the guy cannot even explain how he will be different from Bush. Vote for Romney and he will make this look like the golden age.

    August 1, 2012 09:18 am at 9:18 am |
  12. taffd

    it should come as no surprise-as long as the GOP has borderline mental cases such as Bachman,Palin and others at the forefront, they will continue to turn off voters.

    August 1, 2012 09:19 am at 9:19 am |
  13. Milton K. Wiah

    @ronniet, I know you are a republican but tell me one important agenda Romney has for the country.
    This man is a tax cheat and he wouldn't present his case base on his experience at Bain then of course the Democrats
    will want him to show his tax returns.
    Again being arrogant and less knowledgeable you are, you forgot the destruction of the economy
    over 8 years under Bush. Now you expect the president to fix it 3 years. The American people want
    to give Obama 4 more years. And 4 more years he will get my dear.

    August 1, 2012 09:19 am at 9:19 am |
  14. SafeJourney

    We have your back Mr President. We know you will be re-elected in Nov 2012

    August 1, 2012 09:20 am at 9:20 am |
  15. Robert

    Hopefully sanity and common sense will rule in November so we can send Obama packing.

    August 1, 2012 09:21 am at 9:21 am |
  16. Dawn

    UYour polls are extremely distorted as is your obvious bias toward the unqualified president! You poll liberals to make your numbers fit your biased political news. With the failed economy, dismissal of Israel, so very WEAK foreign experience and plunging unemployment, what fool would put that FOOL back in office. Romney certainly isn't a super star but he has more morals on the tip of his finger than the unqualified president has in his entire staff!! (That is if you can call them that). When he loses, your network will find any excuse it can to keep from eating poll crow!! Your polls have been so off, as King has had to admit. NBC and your network are one in the same!

    August 1, 2012 09:21 am at 9:21 am |
  17. Robert

    With these new polls, shouldn't CNN change the Electoral College map to show Ohio and Florida as leaning Obama?

    August 1, 2012 09:22 am at 9:22 am |
  18. For Freedom

    "You didn't build that"

    August 1, 2012 09:22 am at 9:22 am |
  19. GetAGrip


    Let's see – since you were never contacted for this poll it must be bogus? Don't be so obtuse. I bet you don't complain about not being contacted when the polls show that your candidate is ahead.

    August 1, 2012 09:22 am at 9:22 am |
  20. Wake up people

    I don't put much stock in polls as they can change on a dime. That said, whenever any poll favors President Obama I tend to believe it since the media is so biased against him. I also believe the majority of Americans aren't stupid, they saw the economy crash well before President Obama was even elected. We have also watched as the rethuglicans made it their #1 goal to see him fail. We do not want a Bush repeat. I also think many people are finally opening their eyes to Willard and his many secrets. He is not doing himself any favors by not releasing his taxes to"you people." There are no secrets when running for POTUS, ask President Obama.

    OBAMA 2012!

    August 1, 2012 09:22 am at 9:22 am |

    this campaign hasn't even gotten started yet
    a campaign is the people working to elect our desired candidate!

    August 1, 2012 09:22 am at 9:22 am |
  22. ZSMITH

    Bull. I live in Florida and only a small handful of people I know are going to vote for BO. And I am talking black and hispanic people too.

    August 1, 2012 09:23 am at 9:23 am |
  23. Kiss

    Not sure who they poled, but I live in central FL. and it is heavily in favor of Romney.

    August 1, 2012 09:24 am at 9:24 am |
  24. Big George in Big D

    How anyone can be stupid enough to vote for Nobama is wildly beyond my imagination. He is destroying this country!

    August 1, 2012 09:24 am at 9:24 am |
  25. James

    Obama is working hard to bring the U.S. through this difficult period. It is going to take a few more years for the U.S. economy to overcome the severe hit from the Bush years, the banking and housing woes and the struggling world economy. A president who has the interests of the middle class is what America need at this time in its history.

    August 1, 2012 09:25 am at 9:25 am |
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