Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
August 1st, 2012
07:37 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

(CNN) – President Barack Obama has a majority of voters backing him in three critical battleground states, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida 51%-45%, in Ohio 50%-44%, and in Pennsylvania 53%-42%. Florida and Ohio are considered toss-ups in November's general election, while Pennsylvania is rated "lean Obama" on CNN's Electoral Map.

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The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support. Among Romney backers, 10% in Florida and Ohio and 9% in Pennsylvania said they could change their mind before November. Eleven percent of Obama's supporters in Florida said they could change their minds, compared to 13% in Ohio and 15% in Pennsylvania.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, wrote in a statement accompanying the poll's release.

Brown cited better-than-average unemployment rates in Ohio and Florida as possible factors in Obama's lead there, writing that "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally."

Among self-identified independents, Obama edges Romney in Florida 47%-46%, and Ohio 47%-44%. The president's lead among independents in Pennsylvania is more robust, 58%-36%.

A gender gap persists in all three states, where women are more likely to back Obama and men go stronger for Romney.

In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates. Sixty five percent of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president, compared to 49% of Romney's backers who say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.

In Ohio, 60% were "strongly supporting" Obama, compared to 42% who said the same for Romney. And in Pennsylvania, 59% were strong supporters of Obama and 41% were strongly supporting Romney.

On the economy, voters are split between Obama and Romney. Forty seven percent of Floridians said Romney would do a better job handing economic issues, compared to 45% who named Obama.

In Ohio, 46% of voters said Obama would better handle to economy, and 45% picked Romney. Pennsylvanians gave Obama higher marks on the economy, with 48% naming the president as better on the economy and 44% naming Romney.

"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy," Brown said.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll was conducted by telephone July 24-30. In Florida, 1,177 likely voters were polled and the sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Ohio, 1,193 likely voters were called with a sampling error of 2.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a sampling error of 2.9 percentage points.

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Filed under: Florida • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (166 Responses)
  1. lolo

    See how the republicans cry about the polling? When President Obama is losing the polls are correct, when he is winning they start saying they are not accurate. Give me a break. No one is voting for Romney because he is white and a chickenhawk, but the old GOP/TP party. The rest of us are using our brains. The only way Romney will win is that they will steal the votes just like they did with Gore/Bush. This is why we are in the mess we are in now, because the rich want to keep getting richer and they want to get rid of the middle class period.

    August 1, 2012 09:26 am at 9:26 am |
  2. Anonymous

    @Ancient Texan

    Just look at the name on the poll! Nobody but libs will believe the results. Probably taken at the DNC headquarters.
    You mean it's not "fair and balanced" like the Rasmussen Poll you right-wing bigots are always using? You know... the one recently formally discredited as being nothing but an extention of Faux News.

    August 1, 2012 09:26 am at 9:26 am |
  3. lolo

    Also get out and vote no matter what the polls say.

    August 1, 2012 09:26 am at 9:26 am |
  4. WhatNow

    After reading the comments, it appears as though people only believe polls when they represent the readers views.

    August 1, 2012 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  5. Toby McDooogan

    If there were no problem to deal with then Obama would be OK as president.

    August 1, 2012 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  6. Wilson

    It is so entertaining to see all the liberals so happy with these poll results. The devil is in the details. Polls, just like statistics can be easily skewed to show any result the poll taker wishes. Support for Obama is tanking but the poll takers don't want anybody to know it.

    August 1, 2012 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  7. Harry Pelham

    This Big Race-baiter Barack ( If I had a son ) Obama is GOOD as GONE come next January! If Ya'll don't believe me just ask that so-called White-Hispanic Neighborhood Watch Patrol Guy George Zimmerman down yonder thar in Sanford, Florida he'll rightly tell YA!!!!

    August 1, 2012 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  8. LIB

    Unemployment in swing states are not as bad as national unemployment. That's why Mitt told the republicans governors to stop bragging.

    August 1, 2012 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  9. M

    Those who say the polls can't be right because they haven't been contacted obviously have no idea how polling works, so let me explain it. Pollsters try to create a representative random sample of the larger population, then they poll that sample. They try to account for as many demographic and socioeconomic factors as they can. And, with a large enough sample, it works surprisingly well. So, no, you may not have been called, but someone like you probably was, and that's what matters. Of course, you may question how meaningful these numbers are at this point in time (as do I), but the science of how the polling is done is solid.

    August 1, 2012 09:28 am at 9:28 am |
  10. ST

    I admire the intelligence of Ann Coulter. She said it even before the GOP primaries started, that if they will nominate Romney, they gonna lose. She was quite right, as signs of losing have started showing.

    August 1, 2012 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  11. Holla

    And let the trend continues. Republican does what they love best, whinning.

    August 1, 2012 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  12. RWB1956

    Spin,baby,Spin! Your heads I mean.

    August 1, 2012 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  13. mm

    Romney can't relate to people - period - not even if his fortune depended on it.

    No wonder he's been running for office for over 20 years and only has one failed term as governor of Mass. to show for it...that being a trade in on his father's name..Mitt Romney- not a fraction of the man his father was.

    August 1, 2012 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  14. Vietvet6869

    Any polls taken by the campaigns will be more accurate because they need and expect the truth, they also know the most effective ways to poll

    August 1, 2012 09:30 am at 9:30 am |
  15. Frank

    To Karla: you got it wrong. If your sister spend $100 but they caused a damage worth $5,000, then you need to spend those $5,000 to get things correct. Let me put it more clear: if your sister rents a car for $100 and then crashes and creates a lot of damage, injuries, it will cost at least $5,000 to fix them. This is what the former president did.

    On the other hand, I don't agree that Obama has done such a bad job as you are describing. I work in an area of advanced knowledge, and have seen how during his administration investment in new technologies and science has peaked. I have seen many, many companies in the USA flourishing in the last four years and exporting goods and services (I know first hand) as a result of Obama's policies. It is just that these industries are new, they are not the traditional areas so it will take some time for them to generate sufficient employment, but just give it some time. I know that you might think: I need a job now! and I understand that, but that is not how the economy works.

    I totally pro-Obama and regardless of what the polls say, my own life has been very good under his term. I have seen a lot of others also benefiting from what he has been doing and gradually there will be more, just give it some time. He is leading a big change, and big change takes more than four years.

    August 1, 2012 09:30 am at 9:30 am |
  16. Loudmouth Elephant

    Randy, San Francisco – didn't pay any taxes for 10 years? Ummmmm, you know, in spite of what the liberal media wants the sheep to believe, he has released tax returns and they showed that in 2010 he paid $3,100,000 in taxes in that year alone. That's 458 times more in taxes than the average American worker.

    Please stick to the world of truth and fact. After that completely disgusting bit of false information, your following points were moot. Now, put down the Kool-Aid, say "baaaaahhhhhh" and go back to grazing in the field as you wait for the liberal media to feed you some more lies.

    August 1, 2012 09:30 am at 9:30 am |
  17. Jon

    It will turn around after the first debate when Romney exposes Obama.

    August 1, 2012 09:31 am at 9:31 am |
  18. Dean

    More Democrats were polled than Republicans. These figures are meaningless.

    August 1, 2012 09:32 am at 9:32 am |
  19. DFW Dann

    I don't get how 'breaking even with Obama' on the economy is good news for Romney. Given the stop and start recovery breaking even is good news for Obama. The fact that any challenger isn't running away with this thing gives us an idea of how reluctant people are to go back to the way it was.

    August 1, 2012 09:32 am at 9:32 am |
  20. Rudy NYC

    Who in the world is Mitt Romney? He's told us to look at his record. Okay.

    Bain Capital: Mitt got richer, and appears to have succeeded on the imposed failure of others. He won't talk about it.
    Gov. of MA: He overseas a mandated health care system, and recommends as a national model. He won't talk about it.
    Tax Returns: He's done all that his required by law, but not that is required by protocol. He won't talk about it.
    Economic Plan: Claims a balanced budget despite adding an annual $500B in debt. He won't talk about it.

    So who exactly is MItt Romney? If you ask him, he won't talk about. If go look around, as he has suggested, the records are either destroyed or he has them locked up in secure locations.

    August 1, 2012 09:32 am at 9:32 am |
  21. James

    Romney's recent overseas trip shows that if elected president, he will very likely lead the U.S. into another military conflict that will further destroy the economy and America's reputation in the world and increase exponentially the terrorist threat.

    August 1, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  22. Marty, FL

    Romney flip-flops on too many positions, hides his tax returns, and is not ready for foreign policy as seen on his trip.

    By contrast, Pres. Obama has courage to stand on principle, released 10+ years of tax returns, and strength with his foreign policy successes.

    Obama / Biden 2012

    August 1, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  23. obama2012

    lol the rpubs are the chicken calling out the sky is falling. if anything a poll news about bin laden economy w.e. it is they will find some way to not face the truth spin it as fear mongering conspiracy or a fake or liberal poll face the facts jack (stripes) gallup poll does not like obama and in key swing states its the same thing get over it you lost this race when the rpubs had no1 viable to run you had a better shot with jeb bush. get over it a half black man is in your WHITE house

    August 1, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  24. Bob

    Obama will win in November. It's not surprising. If you assign a dollar figure to all the campaigning done on his behalf by the media and the entertainment industry, he would be outspending Romney 100:1.

    August 1, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  25. joegeek2

    LOL , This is a jioke !!! This poll is totally unreliable based on liberal media and liberal audience taking the poll. Totally different from non-partisan and independent pollers.

    August 1, 2012 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
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