Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
August 1st, 2012
07:37 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

(CNN) – President Barack Obama has a majority of voters backing him in three critical battleground states, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida 51%-45%, in Ohio 50%-44%, and in Pennsylvania 53%-42%. Florida and Ohio are considered toss-ups in November's general election, while Pennsylvania is rated "lean Obama" on CNN's Electoral Map.

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The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support. Among Romney backers, 10% in Florida and Ohio and 9% in Pennsylvania said they could change their mind before November. Eleven percent of Obama's supporters in Florida said they could change their minds, compared to 13% in Ohio and 15% in Pennsylvania.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, wrote in a statement accompanying the poll's release.

Brown cited better-than-average unemployment rates in Ohio and Florida as possible factors in Obama's lead there, writing that "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally."

Among self-identified independents, Obama edges Romney in Florida 47%-46%, and Ohio 47%-44%. The president's lead among independents in Pennsylvania is more robust, 58%-36%.

A gender gap persists in all three states, where women are more likely to back Obama and men go stronger for Romney.

In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates. Sixty five percent of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president, compared to 49% of Romney's backers who say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.

In Ohio, 60% were "strongly supporting" Obama, compared to 42% who said the same for Romney. And in Pennsylvania, 59% were strong supporters of Obama and 41% were strongly supporting Romney.

On the economy, voters are split between Obama and Romney. Forty seven percent of Floridians said Romney would do a better job handing economic issues, compared to 45% who named Obama.

In Ohio, 46% of voters said Obama would better handle to economy, and 45% picked Romney. Pennsylvanians gave Obama higher marks on the economy, with 48% naming the president as better on the economy and 44% naming Romney.

"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy," Brown said.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll was conducted by telephone July 24-30. In Florida, 1,177 likely voters were polled and the sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Ohio, 1,193 likely voters were called with a sampling error of 2.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a sampling error of 2.9 percentage points.

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Filed under: Florida • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (166 Responses)
  1. dazi dami

    The problem runs deeper than Romney... its mistrust. I really thought after the poor losses in 2008 they would regroup and redefine their party but they only regrouped to sink lower. They haven't given the American people anything different from what Bush offered so it's no surprise that even in the current state of the economy people still prefer Obama to a Republican.

    August 1, 2012 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
  2. Justin

    Could the reason be that out of the 1177 likely voters, 63% are registered democrats.lol

    August 1, 2012 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  3. Foreigner

    Polls are crap. Just check the unemployment rates: 9%. This tells the truth. Obama falied to cure the US economy for four years. The rest is not much important to the US voters.

    August 1, 2012 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  4. Forrestal

    Just look at the name on the poll! Nobody but libs will believe the results.====== So these news sources will jeopardize their reputation and credibility to spin their polls for the president. Sure. Makes all kinds of sense to me.

    August 1, 2012 09:36 am at 9:36 am |
  5. DJ

    On these polls it claims this while others have him tied. You can never believe what is being put out there, even when all the polls are averaged out. With the economy being so bad, if there is not a change in office it will become much worse.

    August 1, 2012 09:36 am at 9:36 am |
  6. ptw

    With the voter suppression laws/tactics in place, Obama better get to at least 52% in battleground states.

    August 1, 2012 09:36 am at 9:36 am |
  7. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    The only difference between Palin and Mittens is that Palin has a pair.

    August 1, 2012 09:36 am at 9:36 am |
  8. Bermille

    Marc, his problem is he has let us know in many ways who he is: an elitist that makes Obama look like... a community organizer, which isn't a bad thing in comparison.

    August 1, 2012 09:36 am at 9:36 am |
  9. Roger

    Romney has to be elected to ensure the unemployment problem in communist China is resolved. You don't mind giving up a U.S. job or two to help the commies as Romney and folks like the Koch Bros. have been doing for years.
    A vote for Romney is a a vote for the Communist. You don't mind do you? "Corporations are People"!
    Re-elect Obama and turn the House in 2012.

    August 1, 2012 09:37 am at 9:37 am |
  10. Q

    Just because Romney was smart enough not to pay taxes is no reason not to support him. He will end mediwaste and socialist security so that the free market can be unleashed..........TEAMERICA

    August 1, 2012 09:37 am at 9:37 am |
  11. ten

    Mr Romney hasn't given us any close to a concrete plan, instead he keeps talking about how he doesn't like what Obama does. He should also release his taxes, he looks very shady and untrustworthy. He is acting like a French guy, does anyone remember Dominque De Villepin ?

    August 1, 2012 09:37 am at 9:37 am |
  12. Manuel J.

    I wouldn't expect anything less from a biased, liberal poll. Regarding this poll, and as we say in the tech world, "garbage in, garbage out".

    August 1, 2012 09:37 am at 9:37 am |
  13. Steve

    It should not even be this close. America might be finally waking up and realizing what this President is saying makes sense ! Why go back to the past and repeat the same mistakes , cutting like the GOP wants to do will not work. Look how the austerity measures in Europe are turning out. NOT THAT GOOD. America needs to inevest in order to make this economy grow and yes, that does mean spending money in the short term to fix a longer term problem !

    August 1, 2012 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  14. edmundburkeson

    The poll means nothing. The election will be a referendum on Obama. Throw the bum out!

    August 1, 2012 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  15. ireuel

    Yes three very responsible polls referenced. Note to self; And the posters on this site call people on the right stupid. Oh and Randy Yes he did pay taxes for the last 10 years, Harry Lied. Its a wonder this "News Channel is still in business, because what they allow to be reported is just spin not reality. Let pick and choose a poll that supports our beliefs and the political views we worship.

    August 1, 2012 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  16. Anonymous

    Marc is right. I felt the same way about McCain. If these Republican candidates would stick to the center (where they were before they started competing in primaries), they would crush Obama. As an independent I would have voted for McCain or Romney if they wouldn't have lurched so far to the right.

    August 1, 2012 09:40 am at 9:40 am |
  17. erh

    CBS and NYT poll in FL: Would you rather have no president or O'Bama? Now you ask the question in Broward and Dade Counties and FL is for O'Bama. Well, we shall see when the votes are counted. I suggest the court jester get himself a new day job.

    August 1, 2012 09:40 am at 9:40 am |
  18. maximusvad

    Don't question success...GOP is still running on the "anyone but Obama" banter. Romney doesn't want to open up to the public so the public won't open up to him....no matter how much hate and money they throw at it.

    August 1, 2012 09:43 am at 9:43 am |
  19. MrMynor

    @nunzi – You are correct that half the population has no comprehension of the economic reality faced by this country, however, you are mistaken as to which half of the population that is. Deregulation of the mortgage industry during the Clinton and GWB administrations (more heavily under the latter) is what caused the economic nosedive that occurred in the fall of 2008. The fact that we have righted the ship and are growing (albeit slowly) again at a time when our major trading partners around the world are facing economic meltdowns of their own is nothing short of astounding. If you actually understood economics and market dynamics, you wouldn't be nearly so critical of the President. The problem is that you don't understand economics, you just understand that the talking heads who you allow to form your opinions for you don't approve of Obama, and so you don't. You couldn't care less whether the venom they are spoon feeding you has some basis in fact.

    August 1, 2012 09:43 am at 9:43 am |
  20. Blah blah the wheel's off your trailer

    Four more years and the GOP in tears! Bend over and take that! Obama/Biden/Roberts 2012!

    August 1, 2012 09:44 am at 9:44 am |
  21. wolfpackbob

    It is The Economy, Mr. President. Your Economy, Mr. President. Not Bill Clinton's economy or George Bush's economy but Your Economy. Why don't you campaign on Your Economy?

    August 1, 2012 09:45 am at 9:45 am |
  22. odk1

    republicans can't let Romney run's on his moderate principles because Romney have no principles, that is one raeson why am worried about him been president of united states, top republican leader will push Romney to take U.S to war and he will do it in a heart beat. ROMNEY IS FIRST CLASS PHONEY

    August 1, 2012 09:45 am at 9:45 am |
  23. Ernie Zippreplat

    If you are dumb enough to beleive a poll that takes 11% more democrats in their sample than republicans go ahead and jump up and down for joy...until election night!

    August 1, 2012 09:46 am at 9:46 am |
  24. WiredweirdinSF

    Since the current incompetent, inept, corrupt president is such a miserable failure, the fact that he will get any votes is a tribute to the effectivenes of the liberally biased media, the influence of the dope addicts and welfare frauds and teh corruptions of the unions. No Clue Obama may live again to destroy the hard of work of tax paying, working Americans.

    August 1, 2012 09:46 am at 9:46 am |
  25. n

    I don't care what you think about this president, Romney's only claim to be president, is that, it's his turn at bat and in his own mind, I can almost hear him utter . . . “I'm entitled to be conceited,”I am above and beyond reproach. Romney is and will always be a total disaster, when it comes to putting the American people first. Take a good look at his people, his cohorts, as it were. The average american can not relate to any of them and if by a chance, hell freezes over, Romney becomes president, America will spiral into the abyss of plutocracy and the middle class will be obliterated. Period.

    August 1, 2012 09:47 am at 9:47 am |
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