CNN/Time Polls: Close contests in Florida and North Carolina
Tampa, Florida (CNN) - As the Republican convention gets underway, a new survey indicates the battle for this crucial battleground state's 29 electoral votes is extremely close.
And, according to a CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll in North Carolina, the swing state where the Democratic convention kicks off next week, the race for the White House is a dead heat.
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Both polls were released Monday.
The Florida survey indicates that 50% of likely Sunshine State voters are backing President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The president's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error. According to the poll, independent voters in Florida are divided.
"President Obama has a huge lead in the Democratic strongholds near Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Palm Beach. Mitt Romney has almost as big a lead in the northern part of the state. The two men are currently battling to a draw in the I-4 corridor where most Florida elections are won or lost," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
Eighty-five percent of likely voters said their minds were made up, with 13% saying they could still change their minds.
Then-Senator Obama won Florida by three points over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential election.
In North Carolina, the CNN/Time Magazine/ORC poll indicates a dead heat, with 48% of likely voters supporting Romney and 47% backing Obama. Among independent voters, Romney has a 13 point lead.
"In North Carolina, it's an east-west split, rather than the north-south division we see in Florida," Holland notes. "Obama's strength east of I-95 and in the Research Triangle area roughly matches the advantage Romney has in the central and western parts of the state."
Just over eight in ten likely voters said their minds were made up, with 16% saying they could still change their minds.
Obama narrowly won North Carolina four years ago, the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976. Fifteen electoral votes are up for grabs in the state.
Age also plays a factor in both states, particularly in Florida. But there is no indication that the debate over Medicare in the wake of Romney's selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate has moved the needle among senior citizens. Obama won 45% of the vote among Florida voters over the age of 65 in 2008 and is getting 45% among that group now. His share of the senior vote in North Carolina is also virtually the same as it was four years ago.
The CNN/Time poll was conducted by ORC International, with 1,020 Florida adults, including 895 registered voters and 776 likely voters, questioned by telephone. In North Carolina, 1,019 adults, including 905 registered voters and 766 likely voters, questioned by phone. The sampling error in both surveys for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
- Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.
Tune it to CNN's documentary "Romney Revealed: Family, Faith and the Road to Power," with Chief Political Analyst Gloria Borger, debuting Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET on CNN.
took CNN long enough to show the truth...
I always find it fascinating that democrats/Obama do so well in college-educated areas (The research triangle in NC). People that value education and critical thought and have the ability to understand complex thoughts seem to overwhelmingly vote a certain way.
The YokeMaster has not placed sufficient necks under the Yoke of The DNC Plantation. He will be defeated.
Kimberly
OH WOW!!! Reality Bites called rasmussen scientific. Yes, they had mccain/palin winning last time!
Yes, i thought that was funny myself.
The polls didn't say how many of those questioned were Democrats or Republican. The pollsters can get any result they want.
To Proud Former AZ Republican Arizon.... Give us a break... What do you expect living out there... Voting for Obama is not going to do anything for you... You best take another step down so you can get a Obamacare check. UTAH, ARIZONA... This would be liking living in lost time. You all don't decide the race...
I hope Obama brings his telepromters to the debate... His 10th grade remarks won't make it...
Does anyone else find it amusing and also alarming that it is only the GOP lawmakers creating laws to limit the amount of voters this election? If you weren't worried that you were going to lose the election, why not allow any and everyone the ability to vote? Especially when you can't provide any evidence that voter fraud actually exists in American elections.
If Bill Clinton and Charlie Crist campaign effectively in Florida for Obama, Florida and thereby the Electoral College should go for Obama.
I remember months ago when some polls had Romney over Pres headline read "Romney beats Obama" now it's close. No matter what side your on polls are best remembered as pure political entertainment not political fact.
I like to look at candidates chances of winning via astrology, having correctly predicted the outcomes of the last 3 presidential elections. I wriiten several articles for the 2012 election and just posted this warning to both parties.
http://thestarryeye.typepad.com/newage/2012/08/an-astrological-warning-to-obama-and-romney.html
The republicans in congress have done everything in their power to stop anything that Obama has proposed. They have refused to compromise, and anything they have put forth themselve is so incredibly radical that not even a lunatic would consider it.
Ryan is one of the worst of them all. He wants to completely change Medicare and SS for all the rest of us, while he has his comfortable Congressional pension and health care. Let him take vouchers to doctors when his family needs healthcare!
I cannot understand how any middle class hard working American can be hoodwinked by the republican agenda. These guys are talking about Reagan being a good President. Do you remember Reaganomics and 11% unemployment and 15% interest rates I do. Let's not even talk about constructive engagement. I lived in CA when he was governor too. Open your eyes people.
danita
I hope Obama brings his telepromters to the debate... His 10th grade remarks won't make it...
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Mitt Romney's 'small minded' joke about how "they" don't ask him for his birth certificate is evidence of inferior intellect. The remarks were so small minded that they could be used as proof for the theory of evolution.
I live in NC and don't know many people who will vote for Romney. Only the ones who stay glued to Fox and don't read or watch other media are for Romney. If you are an average American or woman Romney will kick you to curb and don't think he won't for a minute. He reminds me of a little dictator and maybe he needs to go to another country or small island. Only thing he has accomplished is healthcare in MA, which he runs from now. In 2009 he spoke on video that the entire country needed the same healthcare as MA. He flip-flops and lies and cannot be trusted. Entire GOP has now before a joke. Run by rich men who want to get richer and do away with a middle class. Their money will not buy my vote!!
Paul Ryan refers to rape as "another method of conception." Where are you guys on this one?!? How is this getting no play, when a would-be-senator is still dominating your headlines?!
Oh danita. Ignorance is bliss. I never said AZ decided the race. However, I am sick and tired of hearing that the only people who support the president are welfare freeloaders. There are many, many people around this country who live in states that do decide that work hard for what they have and will support him. The Republican party has become a joke. Face it.
The only reason Romney has a chance is because of the economy. The fact that Obama is polling slightly ahead given the unemployment rate is AMAZING. Why would anyone who is not rich vote for Romney? What does he propose to do that would be any different from GWB? Nothing, just more tax cuts for rich people. We tried it and it doesn't work. Reagan tried it and even he agreed we needed to raise taxes. GWB did it for 8 years, and then throw on top of that 2 wars that were not paid for, no wonder the national debt is out of control. Repubs won't even vote to fix roads and bridges because all that govt spending might help the economy.
Hey Danita, At least he speaks like he has a 10th grade education. More than I can credit you with.
The president will win both states IF the voters get out and vote and that is why the republicans are so afraid and unsure of Willard.
Sorry Danita,
I came off like a Republican. Please forgive me. I am a Democrat and only want what's best for the country and the little people. I don't think the current Republican dictatorship really gives a rat's A for what the little people want or think.
Your have your right to your opinion. This being spoken like a true Democrat should speak. Peace.
if you didn't have your liberal base in the triangle it would be a slam dunck for Romney.