North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map
August 27th, 2012
06:28 PM ET
10 years ago

North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map

(CNN) - CNN Monday turned the important battleground state of North Carolina from "lean Romney" to true "toss up" on its Electoral Map, following the release of a new CNN/Time Magazine/ORC International poll that indicated the race for the state's 15 electoral votes was a dead heat.

The move by CNN comes one week before the Democratic convention kicks off in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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The poll, released earlier on Monday, indicates it's all knotted up in the Tar Heel state, with 48% of likely voters supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney and 47% backing President Barack Obama.

Other polls from other organizations conducted earlier this summer also indicated a close contest in North Carolina.

"It's hard to imagine the perfect storm that helped then Sen. Obama narrowly carry the state in 2008. But at the moment the polling shows a tossup, and both campaigns say their numbers are in the same ballpark as our survey," says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King. "That, plus all the attention Democrats are about to give the state, gives us ample reason to move North Carolina to tossup."

"It's a must win for Romney, and even top Obama aides privately say it is a lot harder to see it going blue this time. But Romney can't take it for granted and the poll backs up what we see in the recent ad wars in North Carolina: It's a tight battleground," adds King.

Obama was the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976.

North Carolina now becomes the ninth state CNN considers a true toss up, joining Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. CNN considers Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania as states that lean towards Obama, with Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri as states that lean towards Romney.

With North Carolina's move to true "toss up," the CNN Electoral Map now suggests Obama leading in states with a combined 237 electoral votes, Romney ahead in states with a combined 191 electoral votes, and states with 110 electoral votes are up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed with win the White House.

- CNN's Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (445 Responses)
  1. Dave

    Proud to be Hispanic and a teacher. Think you know who I'm voting for? Think again – Romney all the way!!!

    August 27, 2012 09:56 pm at 9:56 pm |
  2. Aezel

    The 2012 election is already over. Romney would need to take almost every yellow state on that map to win, and he won't.

    August 27, 2012 09:56 pm at 9:56 pm |
  3. Michael

    The Repubs could win.
    There a lot of dumb people in America.
    Just look at the map.

    August 27, 2012 09:56 pm at 9:56 pm |
  4. mike johnson

    ... I am an Obama voter ... But I think I will go Romney this time around ... I don't know if it will be any better, but Obama sure has not loved up to expectations.

    August 27, 2012 09:57 pm at 9:57 pm |
  5. Repub101

    Don't vote for Obama.

    August 27, 2012 09:57 pm at 9:57 pm |
  6. mikle

    If 92% black vote for for Obama, what it's show?

    August 27, 2012 09:57 pm at 9:57 pm |
  7. Eric Hatch

    They're all toss ups, you idiots - and they will be tip the day after the election. I wish you guys would stop trying to second-guess the public and the future. Grow up.

    August 27, 2012 09:58 pm at 9:58 pm |
  8. Scott

    I read about a computer model some academics came up with a few years ago, the model successfully predicted every election going back to 1980... The model says Romney wins.

    August 27, 2012 09:58 pm at 9:58 pm |
  9. Shaun

    To the folks that keep quoting the Daily Mail in the UK as fact of a Romney win over Obama.

    The Daily Mail is a conservative, British daily middle-market tabloid newspaper owned by the Daily Mail and General Trust

    The Daily Mail has had substantial and controversial political positions over its history, including accusations of warmongering before World War I. Lord Rothermere and Lord Beaverbrook were instrumental in launching the United Empire Party in 1929 which sought a British Empire trading bloc. Rothermere was sympathetic to the fascist movement in the UK until 1934, when the British Union of Fascists held a rally where violence occurred.

    August 27, 2012 10:00 pm at 10:00 pm |
  10. Realist

    @Sashatree: You robotic drone! typical liberal. Just because you are GOP doesn't mean you are for or against abortion. I vote for fiscal reasons usually. The reason to vote really should be more on a wider scale of reasoning, unlike your brain. I don't care about abortion, but if you want my opinion.. if the lady gets knocked up she needs to be an adult and deal with it, and put it up for adoption otherwise it is murder any way you slice it. quit selling your body so much then you filthy young lady.

    August 27, 2012 10:05 pm at 10:05 pm |
  11. Chris

    I'm from NC and I vote Romney, now it's no longer a toss up!

    August 27, 2012 10:06 pm at 10:06 pm |
  12. David Kuklinski

    NC. My voting life = Ford, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, McCain but I can't abide by the nonsense I've heard from what used to be my party recently. I've been willing to break lines in the past based on my independent opinion as a deep rooted American and I'm doing it again this year. Lesser of two evils sucks but there it is.

    August 27, 2012 10:06 pm at 10:06 pm |
  13. LCSWquilter

    Akin, Hurricane Isaac, and now North Carolina. This convention week is turning into a real debacle for the GOP. Incidentally, Mitt, when are you planning to release your 2011 tax return? How do you expect voters to trust you with your secret taxes, Swiss account, and off shore investments?

    August 27, 2012 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  14. Robairdo

    I can hear it now four more years, For More Year, FOUR MORE YEARS, ....

    August 27, 2012 10:08 pm at 10:08 pm |
  15. Kevin

    Why is Mr. Romney's home state leaning blue? That's gotta mean something.

    August 27, 2012 10:09 pm at 10:09 pm |
  16. DeAnne

    I don't make enough money for Romney to care about me, especially since I'm a woman, too. Obama 2012 !!

    August 27, 2012 10:09 pm at 10:09 pm |
  17. judith mcfarlane

    When are we going to put a stop to these national elections that start, it seems, one year after the previous elections! When are we going to put a cap on total spending, hey, maybe one billion dollars, to re-electing our presidents? When are we going to force our elected leaders to lead rather than run for the next election???

    I've had it with American politics. We're supposed to be close to broke, no money for needed improvements, but tons and tons of money, merely for the election process.


    August 27, 2012 10:11 pm at 10:11 pm |
  18. kathy/Minnesota

    The GOP have made a horrible mis-calculation, their lastest "trick" going across the country, and conducting focus groups, and in their "own" words convincing suburban white women that the welfare and medicare"LIES" are actually true.Women are smart and just like they can see right thru the RYAN/AKIN act, they will definately keep their eyes open and remain the good listener's and deep thinkers, they have always been, and figure this out.

    August 27, 2012 10:11 pm at 10:11 pm |
  19. patricia

    Funny when I look at this map and realized that all the black people from the south are not voting for Obama. It give me a second thought.

    August 27, 2012 10:12 pm at 10:12 pm |
  20. DarthVader's Mentor

    Don't ever take for granted a tar heel!

    August 27, 2012 10:12 pm at 10:12 pm |
  21. ari

    i like how the states that actually contribute to the country's economy, scientific research, and progressive human rights are all blue or yellow, whereas all of the states at the top of the lists for teen pregnancies, STD rates, and high school dropouts are solidly red. HMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

    August 27, 2012 10:13 pm at 10:13 pm |
  22. Think about it

    If you hired a person to do a certain job, and this person has failed in every aspect. Would you decide to keep this person on for another 4 years? Your company ( Our company ) is the United States of America. We can't afford to prolong this anymore, so I say it is time for a change for the better.

    August 27, 2012 10:15 pm at 10:15 pm |
  23. Susie

    Sounds like people are coming to their senses, instead of guilt voting for someone just because he is a minority. Time to put someone competent in office.

    August 27, 2012 10:15 pm at 10:15 pm |
  24. ludvig

    The tea party can look in the mirror following the election and say "We only have ourselves to blame for the utter destruction of the once proud Grand Old Party.

    August 27, 2012 10:18 pm at 10:18 pm |
  25. shawn

    This will be a Bush – Kerry type election with the parties flipped around, where many hated the guy in office but even more couldn't bare the thought of having the other guy in there.

    August 27, 2012 10:18 pm at 10:18 pm |
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