North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map
August 27th, 2012
06:28 PM ET
10 years ago

North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map

(CNN) - CNN Monday turned the important battleground state of North Carolina from "lean Romney" to true "toss up" on its Electoral Map, following the release of a new CNN/Time Magazine/ORC International poll that indicated the race for the state's 15 electoral votes was a dead heat.

The move by CNN comes one week before the Democratic convention kicks off in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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The poll, released earlier on Monday, indicates it's all knotted up in the Tar Heel state, with 48% of likely voters supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney and 47% backing President Barack Obama.

Other polls from other organizations conducted earlier this summer also indicated a close contest in North Carolina.

"It's hard to imagine the perfect storm that helped then Sen. Obama narrowly carry the state in 2008. But at the moment the polling shows a tossup, and both campaigns say their numbers are in the same ballpark as our survey," says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King. "That, plus all the attention Democrats are about to give the state, gives us ample reason to move North Carolina to tossup."

"It's a must win for Romney, and even top Obama aides privately say it is a lot harder to see it going blue this time. But Romney can't take it for granted and the poll backs up what we see in the recent ad wars in North Carolina: It's a tight battleground," adds King.

Obama was the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976.

North Carolina now becomes the ninth state CNN considers a true toss up, joining Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. CNN considers Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania as states that lean towards Obama, with Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri as states that lean towards Romney.

With North Carolina's move to true "toss up," the CNN Electoral Map now suggests Obama leading in states with a combined 237 electoral votes, Romney ahead in states with a combined 191 electoral votes, and states with 110 electoral votes are up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed with win the White House.

- CNN's Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (445 Responses)
  1. Creepy

    Motto – you're a year too early

    August 27, 2012 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  2. Erik

    This is due to all the educated people moving into the research triangle.

    August 27, 2012 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |

    . . .would love for Ohio to turn blue-and it is great to see NC starting to think about
    what kind of people they are putting in office. With akin and Ryan this is a joke.
    Romney is hiding behind people like this and he will do whatever is the flavor of the republican day.
    vote Obama and let the extreme right wing know that we are tired of their behavior and we aren't taking
    it anymore!

    August 27, 2012 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  4. Randy

    Here are real clear politics polls. Not just the liberal leaning cnn poll.
    RCP Average 8/1 – 8/26 - 47.7 46.7 Romney +1.0
    CNN/Time 8/22 – 8/26 766 LV 48 47 Romney +1
    PPP (D) 8/2 – 8/5 813 LV 46 49 Obama +3
    Rasmussen Reports 8/1 – 8/1 500 LV 49 44 Romney +5

    August 27, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  5. We'll see ...

    It's interesting that NC is so close given the huge advantage the GOPs have in registered voters ... this poll is most likely just an outlier but you'd expect this state to be firmly in Romney's corner by now. Nate Silver at 538 still only gives Dems a 33% chance to win NC- he weights all the polls and includes factors like the registered voter figures. CNN's "bias" may be in relying on just its own polling rather than considering other factors – one poll does not a trend make.

    August 27, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  6. DJ

    After Romney picked Ryan, the election was over. Obama will win !!!

    August 27, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  7. AF

    Living in NC, I cannot imagine how anyone here could rationally think that a right wing agenda would help the "common" man. It's amazing and sad how billions of dollars can convince the "little" guys-historically the big losers in a trickle down scenario that loosens restrictions on banks and billionaires and rewards the interests of the chosen elite-to vote against their own best interests. Shame on the numerous churches who collude with this; the lessons of the bible they reference speak again and again of social justice and tolerance.

    August 27, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  8. William

    So sad to see that 5 states decide that Barry's good enough... does California even get to vote if they are bankrupt?

    August 27, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  9. Sara

    Ugh, I'd almost prefer one candidate be solidly ahead so we could stop with the campaign ads.

    August 27, 2012 07:46 pm at 7:46 pm |
  10. Lori

    I may be more inclined to believe this article if you posted the "demographics" of the sampled voters.
    Heck, Obama may have 47% of people inclined to vote for him if 95% of the people polled are registered Democrats and are indicating they're going to vote in November.
    How about an unbiased poll?
    Oh, that's right... Obama doesn't have a snowball's chance in 'you know where' if there is a relatively even distribution of Democrats, Republicans and Independents being polled!

    August 27, 2012 07:47 pm at 7:47 pm |
  11. Timmy

    Of course I am going to vote for Obama- as my family likes to say 'Vote Democrat, it's easier than working!'

    August 27, 2012 07:47 pm at 7:47 pm |
  12. Reggie from LA

    Jesse, of course you'll be a fool again. Who are you kiddn'. You're on the R & R ticket aren't ya? How much bigger to they get than that.

    Randy, that's just racism you're talking about. Sheesh.

    August 27, 2012 07:48 pm at 7:48 pm |
  13. redwinghawk

    People in the US are generally sensible. They are not going to hand back the car keys back to the very folks who drove it off the road now that we have the car headed in the right direction, finally. And sensible people are not going to vote in a President who is a multi-millionaire, who won't release tax returns showing his true character, and who won't support taxing the wealthy. They won't support somebody who doesn't have a firm position they can count on on issues, like health care, and they won't support somebody who hasn't told them squat about what he would actually DO when he gets in office. Americans have a lot of common sense. Obama in November, hands down.

    August 27, 2012 07:48 pm at 7:48 pm |
  14. nerdygrrl

    any chance there is a legend that goes along with that map?

    August 27, 2012 07:48 pm at 7:48 pm |
  15. shaolinkaz

    I'm voting for Gary Johnson. There's absolutely NO WAY I'm going to place a vote for Obama or Romney who are both one in the same. I'm in NYC who I'm sure will heavily favor Obama. As time passes, both main stream conservatives & liberals will begin to realize their Liberties are being pissed away by establishment candidates and they'll have no other choice but to turn to the Libertarian cause. It will happen, I guarantee it, there's no decline of the Liberty movement in sight of it.

    August 27, 2012 07:48 pm at 7:48 pm |
  16. martin

    C'mon Republican "leaders". You're supposed to gain momentum going into your convention. God, it's over.

    August 27, 2012 07:48 pm at 7:48 pm |
  17. Dave

    So Romeny needs 89 of the 110 toss up votes and Obama needs 33. How is this a tied race? I just asking

    August 27, 2012 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  18. ohio

    Vote obama!

    August 27, 2012 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  19. God's Wrath

    The Republicans have only themselves to blame for the economic situation this country finds itself in. When Obama took office, the economy was in a free fall, the banks were failing and the whole friggin train was off the tracks. Obama got the train back on the tracks. Likewise, the Republicans got us into two wars; Obama is getting us out. All we need is a tax dodging, lying, Mormon, snake eating biggot in the White House to really screw things up.

    August 27, 2012 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  20. Dave

    Before you tout the poll, can we please see the cross-tabs? Adults/registered/likely voters? Party weighting? Sample size? Date(s) of polling? Thanks. It makes for a much more intelligent discussion of any poll and its validity.

    August 27, 2012 07:49 pm at 7:49 pm |
  21. Anonymous

    If Romney wins, it is only a matter of time before the Apocalypse Christians warn about, arrives. Only it will be the tea party and their GOP bed friends that bring the world to a fiery end, not their world famous god!

    August 27, 2012 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |

    Electoral changes.

    August 27, 2012 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  23. phearis

    Isn't it funny how all of the lower income and poorly educated states vote Republican, where as the higher income and educated states vote Democrat. Hmmmm, one would conclude that if the poorly educated people actually learned about whom they were voting for instead of relying on Talk Radio for their "facts", they'd vote Democrat. The Republicans rely on the poorly educated and ignorant to keep them in office. 🙂

    August 27, 2012 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  24. Tom

    You don’t even need to watch this pole, just go look who is holding the electoral seats for the states. The seats are democratic dominant. So guess who’s going to win? Come on people! Stop chasing the stick! We are trapped in a system. & you are nothing more than a battery to an economic motor. So take your toy vote & throw it to a protest. Vote outside these two parties.

    August 27, 2012 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  25. Jeff

    I still have my 17 years of my tax records, let me if you need a copy

    August 27, 2012 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
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