North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map
August 27th, 2012
06:28 PM ET
10 years ago

North Carolina moves in CNN Electoral Map

(CNN) - CNN Monday turned the important battleground state of North Carolina from "lean Romney" to true "toss up" on its Electoral Map, following the release of a new CNN/Time Magazine/ORC International poll that indicated the race for the state's 15 electoral votes was a dead heat.

The move by CNN comes one week before the Democratic convention kicks off in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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The poll, released earlier on Monday, indicates it's all knotted up in the Tar Heel state, with 48% of likely voters supporting Republican challenger Mitt Romney and 47% backing President Barack Obama.

Other polls from other organizations conducted earlier this summer also indicated a close contest in North Carolina.

"It's hard to imagine the perfect storm that helped then Sen. Obama narrowly carry the state in 2008. But at the moment the polling shows a tossup, and both campaigns say their numbers are in the same ballpark as our survey," says CNN Chief National Correspondent John King. "That, plus all the attention Democrats are about to give the state, gives us ample reason to move North Carolina to tossup."

"It's a must win for Romney, and even top Obama aides privately say it is a lot harder to see it going blue this time. But Romney can't take it for granted and the poll backs up what we see in the recent ad wars in North Carolina: It's a tight battleground," adds King.

Obama was the first Democrat to carry the state in a presidential election since 1976.

North Carolina now becomes the ninth state CNN considers a true toss up, joining Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. CNN considers Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania as states that lean towards Obama, with Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri as states that lean towards Romney.

With North Carolina's move to true "toss up," the CNN Electoral Map now suggests Obama leading in states with a combined 237 electoral votes, Romney ahead in states with a combined 191 electoral votes, and states with 110 electoral votes are up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed with win the White House.

- CNN's Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (445 Responses)
  1. lila

    Nate Silver has always had Mitt winning NC. I think he will. Still Obama will win the election unless Mitt crushes him in date. and
    Mitt is smart and as learned how to debate well. The debates are going to be the big moments. They should all study for them, hard and heavy. Obama will be a nice guy who seems to speak sane balance. Mitt might try and make Obama look mean and far left from the center. We will see who wins.

    August 27, 2012 07:51 pm at 7:51 pm |
  2. dax

    NC going to Obama... LMAO I live here and thats a negative ghost rider..... Especially after the gay marriage embrace... It was already going to Romney but that sealed the deal.

    August 27, 2012 07:52 pm at 7:52 pm |
  3. WDinDallas

    Romney/Ryan 2012 – American values return!

    August 27, 2012 07:53 pm at 7:53 pm |
  4. daveab

    This is going to be an extremely close race. I plan on door knocking in parts of Florida this month and then Wisconsin in October for Romney-Ryan. We need a President that is looking out for the future and not just the next 4 years.

    August 27, 2012 07:53 pm at 7:53 pm |
  5. Saul

    Way to go North Carolina! now bring it home for Obama! We are moving in the right direction despite what you hear from the creators of this mess!

    August 27, 2012 07:54 pm at 7:54 pm |
  6. NameKen

    ... And there will be a republican bump from the convention... Then a democratic convention bump...then the debates- long way to go

    August 27, 2012 07:54 pm at 7:54 pm |
  7. dbroskie

    If they're conservative leaning as they recently showed in their last state-wide vote, they will definitely go for the Republican ticket. Four more years without fearing any re-election anxiety, Obama would have more Czars than old Russia ruling by decree!

    August 27, 2012 07:55 pm at 7:55 pm |
  8. West Virginia- Buck

    Romney is for the rich and for the corporate types. Im neither so I will be voting for Obama. Trickle down economics didnt work with Bush and it wont for Romney.

    August 27, 2012 07:56 pm at 7:56 pm |
  9. brian

    I wonder why poorer states are supporting the Republicans !!!!

    August 27, 2012 07:56 pm at 7:56 pm |
  10. guest

    VA, and IA are the true battle ground states. As those is a toss up since both parties declared they have VA but no one knows who has IA.

    The GOP have written off CO so useually if a side knows it is loosing it is loosing. However it is confident about FL while Dems don't know about both but is confident about NV.

    the Dems are more confident about WI, OH, and NH, wile the GOP has said those will be a toss up.

    However if you throw WI and OH in the mix of battleground states with VA and IA. The GOP has to get VA and cant loose any of ther other states WI, OH, or IA in order to secure victory. The dems if they get one of those 4 battleground states President Obama will still be in power.

    It is the Electorial Collage that plays a very important factor in elections, and Dewy did not defeat Trumann.

    August 27, 2012 07:56 pm at 7:56 pm |
  11. Stanley

    Bad news if Mitt/Ryan win,you will have to be 75 years old to get social security,you probably won't live that long,you will have to pay a portion of your medicare out of your meger retirement income, these savings will keep the tax rates low for the wealthy and shift the tax burden on the masses.Your tax dollars will go to help oil companies and business.No freebies from washington for the average Joe.If you pay taxes shouldn't you get something as well as businnesmen do?

    August 27, 2012 07:56 pm at 7:56 pm |
  12. DG

    People can see those evil Republicons for what they really are - liars.

    August 27, 2012 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  13. Proud American

    Funny thing is having over 20 family members in the Charlotte area none of which have been contacted by this poll, it seems that CNN is once again trying to force America into believing Obama is going to win this election. The Charlotte observer poll clearly showed Romney having a 7% lead. I am willing to bet that Obama will win 15 or less stated during this election. Itis clear he can't run on his record because that has been a complete failure.

    August 27, 2012 07:57 pm at 7:57 pm |
  14. PaulC

    Anyone who thinks that a Romney presidency will help the middle class is delusional.
    You might ask him how, exactly, he plans to create jobs. He has made it perfectly clear that his plan is to eliminate all corporate regulations and taxes. How will that prevent the corporations from continuing to ship jobs overseas for the profit? You might know that the Bush tax cut was approx. $1 trillion but Romney harps on no jobs.
    You may think that with more tax cuts the rich will create jobs but it is more like to give Romney more money to stash in offshore tax havens.

    August 27, 2012 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
  15. jbm66

    Romney will need to carry just about every toss up state to win. That seems very unlikey. Once people come out of their amnesia of the 8 disastrous years of Bush who decimated our economy in 2008 which will take over a decade to recover, and sent 4500 US soldiers to their deaths in Iraq which was perhaps the dumbest war in US history, they will say to themselves do I really want to go back to that.. I dont think so...

    August 27, 2012 07:58 pm at 7:58 pm |
  16. Cynical Vet

    I feel like that guy at the very end of A Bridge On The River Kwai whenever I read the comments in here...."Madness......MADNESS!!!"

    I'm a disabled Viet Nam veteran, I own guns, I carry a weapon with a permit and I am tired of you people trying to turn this country into a nanny state!! If that's what you want....everything regimented, controlled, handed to you, may I recomment the UK? At least they speak a form of english there.

    Whenever I hear Dear Leader's name, I think of the captain of the Exxon Valdeez.....equally incompetent and prone to running things aground.

    August 27, 2012 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  17. James Black

    The GOP only cares about protecting the rich, The NRA and the qwell connected. Which make up about 20% of the country. Anytime and canidate says "Im not worried about the very poor, we have a safety net there" is clearly out of touch with the needs of the middle class.Oh and by the way they want to tell women what to do with their bodies. How could you not vote for that?

    August 27, 2012 07:59 pm at 7:59 pm |
  18. Debby

    How many people did you poll CNN 200 and all Dems?

    August 27, 2012 08:00 pm at 8:00 pm |
  19. Steve

    Who cares, neither one cares about you or me. No one has gave a crap since they left that first job on the city council making 21K a year.

    August 27, 2012 08:00 pm at 8:00 pm |

    if you think michigan is voting democrat you better look whats going on here since a rep

    August 27, 2012 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  21. Telly

    It is truly amazing at the amount of GOP bashing that is going on not just here but in this country. When will people look at facts instead of personalities?I am a Black American and I am proud to say that I'm a Republican who does not get caught up in Obamamania!

    August 27, 2012 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  22. mtbeau

    GOP Congress needs to be put out of office..obstructionist!

    August 27, 2012 08:01 pm at 8:01 pm |
  23. Polar Bear

    Becoming clearer where to draw the physical boundary between the "two Americas."

    August 27, 2012 08:02 pm at 8:02 pm |
  24. guest

    Sorry 4 battle ground states. WI, OH, IA, and VA.

    If the reupblicans get VA they can only loose 1 battleground state to maintain victory.

    If the dem get VA they only need 1 more state to win.

    So GOP victory = VA + 3 BG states

    Dem Victory = VA + 1 BG state.

    August 27, 2012 08:02 pm at 8:02 pm |
  25. ReasonSeason

    I grew up learning the quote "And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country. " - John F. Kennedy However, now days no one asks that. Many of the comments ask what the candidates will do for them. The question is, what will you do for your country? With the position we're in, everyone will need to make sacrifices.

    August 27, 2012 08:02 pm at 8:02 pm |
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