CNN Poll: Nevada still a close contest
September 20th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
11 years ago

CNN Poll: Nevada still a close contest

(CNN) - One day before Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney campaigns in Nevada, a new poll indicates the state remains very much a battleground in the race for the White House.

According to CNN/ORC International survey (PDF) released Thursday, 49% of likely voters in Nevada say if the election were held today, they'd vote for President Barack Obama, with 46% supporting Romney. The president's three point margin is within the poll's sampling error, suggesting the two candidates are effectively tied in the fight for the Silver State's six electoral votes.

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"Each one gets his core groups," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "For President Obama, that means a lead among women and lower-income voters and an advantage among younger Nevadans. Mitt Romney has the edge among men and among higher-income and older voters."

The survey indicates that independent voters are virtually split, with 45% backing Romney and 43% supporting Obama.

According to the poll, Obama leads Romney 54%-43% in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. The county contains about two-thirds of the state's population.

President George W. Bush narrowly carried Nevada in his 2004 re-election. But four years ago Obama won the state by 12 points over Sen. John McCain of neighboring Arizona.

This cycle Obama and Romney have each made four swings through Nevada since the start of the general election. Both campaigns continue to put up TV commercials in the state, with each spending nearly $900,000 over the past week to run spots on broadcast TV, according to data provided to its clients by Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which tracks campaign advertising. Since the unofficial start of the general election in early April, nearly $30 million has been shelled out by the campaigns, the party committees, and the super PACs and other independent groups backing the two candidates, to run ads in Nevada.

The ads are now most likely targeting the small minority of voters who are either undecided or could be persuaded to change their minds. According to the poll, nine out of ten say their mind is made up, with 8% saying they could change their minds.

Obama and Romney are not the only presidential candidates on the ballot in Nevada. When the other third party candidates are included, the president captures 47% of likely voter support, with Romney at 44%, Independent American party candidate Virgil Goode at 4% and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 3%.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from September 14-18, with 1,006 adults, including 864 registered voters and 741 likely voters questioned by telephone. The sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Filed under: 2012 • CNN/ORC poll • Mitt Romney • Nevada • President Obama
soundoff (71 Responses)
  1. Obamacare = Obama cares about the young, elderly, poor and disabled. Romneycare = "I don't care about the poor"! Repeal? Replace? With What?

    Yep, and for all you Fox trolls, Rasmussen has President O up 2 over Robme.

    Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin!

    September 20, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |

    Paul, bet ya $10,000 that Harry Reid is going to turn up the pressure on Willard to release more tax returns. And I'll double down that Willard will not release them. You've got to remember how badly foreclosures have hit Nevada. Willard's response: "let the market bottom out." The President's actions were to keep people in their homes. You can clearly see who looks out for the middle class.

    September 20, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  3. Dominican mama 4 Obama


    How does Willard poll with Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Mexicans? Latin Floridians are primarily Cuban.
    He doesn't.

    September 20, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  4. truth hurts

    Lots of Mormons in Nevada... I wonder if the poll was weighted to account for that? If if the usual over polling of Democrats was done?

    September 20, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  5. TheVoice2

    If by mid October the polls still favor Obama then he will be President four more years! Mitt Phony is starting to sound and act ridiculous. His campaign is a mess. Can you imagine how he would run this country?? Oh yeah, to the ground. It's scary to even think Mitt Phony as President.

    Top 10% pay 50% of total income tax, but they own 90% of America's wealth.

    September 20, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  6. ll

    This is not new news here. This is how Nevada has been running for months now.

    September 20, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  7. We can do better then now...

    Romney >>> obama

    (then again, this is the state that reelected the hack, Reid).

    September 20, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  8. James

    When the latinos reconcile the face that they are with a party who Boo'd god they will abandon those democratic panderers and when Whites realize Obamas approvals numbers are solely from minorities –with only 30% white approval they will stop letting others make up their minds for them.
    This president is a monumental failure who can even get 40% white support-that has to tell people that his approval is completely biased. No sane person would approve of his job so its as Romney said–his support is bought and will vote for him regardless of the fact that he's a terrible president.

    September 20, 2012 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  9. Jr

    Poor mittens/Willard

    September 20, 2012 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  10. on StreetWise

    I voted for Obama and I am under impressed with his record now... however, returning to the old GOP plans to cut taxes for the wealthy and reduce/erase banking, corporations and Wall Street regulations won't ad a nickel to our economy or jobs. Seems I'll be voting against the opposition instead voting for the Dems.. again. Same old rut.

    September 20, 2012 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  11. chrisjef

    The odds will change dramatically. Check out the article in The Washington Examiner article on the shocking Obama vetting.. This is what we should have known four years ago.

    September 20, 2012 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  12. Thomas

    Obama will win by 3 votes. Nevada is a state of opportunist that think of themselves as pioneers of the unsustainable . Where else can you see a water show with pirates in the desert , get a 400 dollar room for 60 dollars on line , a meal for 9,99 , buy a friend for 100 , and see a midget and a kangaroo leaving a room together !

    Whatever happened to Siegfried & Roy ?

    September 20, 2012 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  13. TparTpatriot

    Nevada is going Romney, North Carolina is going Romney, Iowa is going Romney. Which will be the next state to reject Odumber? Hope it's Ohio or Florida then we know BO is finished!

    September 20, 2012 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  14. TJ Meserve

    CNN political coverage is looking more and more like MSNBC. I'm starting to ignore CNN coverage since it seems to have decided to favor one candidate. Too bad...used to enjoy it when it was a more balanced network.

    September 20, 2012 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  15. MikeB

    If you don't believe that we need a President then re-elect Obama. He already lets his Oligarchs run things and just shows up to take credit for other people's work or to pass the blame for the failures.

    September 20, 2012 04:25 pm at 4:25 pm |
  16. chrisjef

    There is an interesting article in today's Washington Examiner on the shocking Obama vetting which could very likely change the odds for Romney. Check it out. We should have know this four years ago.

    September 20, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  17. Joseph Smith

    Romney can't even pull away in a Mormon state like Nevada. Pathetic.

    September 20, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  18. B.

    It is hard to understand how anyone now could still be on the fence. The choice is so huge in contrast.

    Romney lives for money to build a bigger Pyramid to himself and Obama lives to help all people get ahead, it is that strait forward.

    September 20, 2012 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  19. Jim

    I see Romney is now ahead of "none of the above."

    September 20, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  20. C Anderson

    Romney is dead in the water., he is done. He is up against the Michael Jordan of politics.

    September 20, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  21. ShawnDH

    Obama will ultimately win Nevada...even though he doesn't really need Nevada to win the election.

    September 20, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  22. Saboth

    "Obama leads Romney 54%-43% in Clark County, which includes Las Vegas". Expect to see Trump outside his Casino handing out $100 to anyone that votes for Romney.

    September 20, 2012 04:30 pm at 4:30 pm |
  23. Sid Stewart

    If CNN says it is even polls; then Romney is really up by 8 points

    September 20, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  24. Irisdavenport

    Obama will win Nevada, he's right at 50%. The likely portion of the voter sampling is probably skewed slighly republican. If he's 3 points up in this poll, then a poll of only registerd voters will probably show a greater margin in Obama's favor. In addition, the President's ground game will boost those Clark County numbers.

    September 20, 2012 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  25. PuddinTine

    Well at least Romney has one state he can put up a showing in... the rest are already lost.

    September 20, 2012 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
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