Poll: Who will win Wednesday's debate?
October 1st, 2012
11:30 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Who will win Wednesday's debate?

Washington (CNN) - Two days before the first debate between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, a new poll indicates that most Americans see the GOP challenger as the underdog in the first showdown.

According to a ABC News/Washington Post national poll released Monday, 55% of likely voters say they think the president will win the debate, with 31% saying that Romney will be victorious. The findings on this question from the new survey are in-line with a CNN/ORC International poll conducted right after the Democratic convention earlier this month, where by 59%-34%, likely voters said Obama rather than the former Massachusetts governor would be more likely to do a better job in the October showdowns.

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Wednesday night's debate in Denver, Colorado is the first of three between the president and Romney. Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, Romney's running mate, face off once as well.

According to the Washington Post poll, 49% of likely voters say if the election were held today, they'd vote for the president, with 47% saying they'd vote for Romney. The president's two point margin is within the survey's sampling error. A new Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll also released Monday also indicates it 49% for Obama and 47% for Romney among likely voters nationwide.

The two new surveys follow a Fox News poll released late last week which indicated a five point advantage for the president. A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all three surveys together puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 46% among likely voters.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted Sept. 26-29, with 1,001 adults nationwide, including 929 registered voters and 813 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus four percentage points.

The Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll was conducted Sept. 24-27, with 1,000 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Also see:

- Getting ready for Wednesday's showdown

- Ann Romney to rally while Obama preps for debate across town

- Obama to hit trail after debate

- Romney hits Obama on foreign policy in weekly podcast

- Obama talks housing market in weekly address

Filed under: Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama • Presidential Debate
soundoff (206 Responses)
  1. lets be honest tight race

    im no psychic but i predict obama wins popular vote by 400 votes and that he barely comes away with 270 to 260 electoral college win,if romney wins it will be by a landslide he carry with ease both pop and electoral votes-im an indy

    October 2, 2012 02:53 am at 2:53 am |
  2. Larry IN Houston

    I suspect that romney is going to end up winning the debate(s) – he most likely will win the election, and mitch mconnell will have a happy face for the rest of his life. But I think it's going to be so close, they will have to do some "re-counts" in some states. It will be romney by the slimmest of margins, even though I'm voting a straight Dem ticket.

    October 2, 2012 02:56 am at 2:56 am |
  3. Sandra Taylor

    Romney reminds me of Brenda Starrs mystery,,,,no there there,
    Romney reminds me of Brenda Stars mystery man,,,good looking but no there there, Would someone please tell me
    one plan, one specific or is everyhiing diiscussed in quiet rooms, In a word I don't trust him, I feel he is device and
    he has shown that to us countless time. Give Me one just one reason why I should vote for him,
    His own wife is concerned about his mental health that should tell us something.
    Obama Bideb 2112 staight democratic all the way.

    October 2, 2012 03:52 am at 3:52 am |
  4. selfevolved

    Agreeing with Mike. These debates are so late in the election cycle, what's the point? 95% of people have already decided whom they're voting for, and the 5% who are undecided isn't due to waiting for debates.

    October 2, 2012 06:37 am at 6:37 am |
  5. Keith

    The person who wins the election. Asking who will "win" the debate is like asking who will "win" first quarter of a football game. You can judge who's ahead at that point but all that ultimately matters is who has the most electoral votes when the election is over.

    October 2, 2012 07:33 am at 7:33 am |
  6. Bill Fitzgerald

    Blossom89 You miss the point. Romney is, by making that statement, asking us to choose if we are in That group. Who wants to be in that group? Vote Romney and stay far away from it. And WE really do need a smart man in the White House who has proven that he can work across the ailse when he was Gov. Obama has proven he cannot and then uses executive orders to get His way. That is not leadership.

    October 2, 2012 07:34 am at 7:34 am |
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