New polls in crucial battlegrounds
October 3rd, 2012
11:10 AM ET
10 years ago

New polls in crucial battlegrounds

Denver (CNN) - Hours before the first presidential debate here at the base of the Rocky Mountains, new polls indicate that President Barack Obama holds a lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in one crucial battleground state, with the race for the White House basically all tied up in two other swing states.

The states, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, have been getting an outsized proportion of attention from the candidates and their campaigns compared to the other swing states.

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According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey released Wednesday morning, 47% of likely voters in Florida say they back the president, with 46% supporting Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error, meaning the battle for the Sunshine State's 29 electoral votes can be considered a dead heat.

The president held a 49%-45% edge in Florida in the previous NBC/WSJ/Marist poll.

The new survey, which was conducted Sept.30-Oct. 1, is latest of seven non-partisan, live operator polls of likely voters conducted over the past two weeks. The other surveys are Suffolk University (Sept. 27-30); Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times (Sept. 18-24); Mason Dixon (Sept. 17-19); Washington Post (Sept. 19-23); American Research Group (Sept. 20-22) and Fox News (Sept. 16-18). A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all seven surveys puts the president at 49% and Romney at 45%.

President George W. Bush carried Florida in his 2004 re-election, but Obama turned Florida from red to blue four years ago.

It's a similar story in Virginia, where a new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll indicates the president at 48% and Romney at 46%. Obama's two point edge is within the sampling error. The survey is the third non-partisan, live operator poll conducted over the past week of likely voters in Virginia. American Research Group (Sept. 24-27); Suffolk University (Sept. 24-26) are the other two. A CNN Poll of Polls of the three surveys puts Obama at 48% and Romney at 46%.

Thirteen electoral voters are at stake in Virginia. Four years ago Obama became the first Democrat to win the Commonwealth in a presidential election since 1964.

The new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll in Ohio indicates the president with an eight point 51%-43% lead.). The new survey is the third conducted in Ohio over the past two weeks. The others are Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times (Sept. 18-24); Washington Post (Sept. 19-23). A CNN Poll of Polls which averages all three surveys indicates Obama at 52% and Romney at 43%.

Bush carried the state in 2004, with Obama topping Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the Buckeye State four years ago. Eighteen electoral votes are up for grabs in Ohio.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll was conducted by telephone with 890 likely voters in Florida, 931 likely voters in Ohio and 969 likely voters in Virginia questioned. The sampling errors are plus or minus 3.1 percentage points in Ohio and Virginia and plus or minus 3.3 percentage points in Florida.

Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Ohio • Virginia
soundoff (33 Responses)
  1. John, PA

    @ Bill / Phil :
    Many, many, many trips to California this year. I’ve going there, spending time there working and listing to the people there. They’re not happy with Gov. Brown and the tax increases Gov Brown initiated, the tax increase in Obama care, the tax increase coming in 2013 if Obama gets reelected. Romney is pulling the swing voters in California his way and the you and the Democrats don’t even see it.

    October 3, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  2. truth hurts

    usa - What's the deal with Ohioans?? Are they living in a twilight zone time warp??
    They have a Republican governor as do Florida and Virginia. They have made great progress in turning their states around so people in those states aren't feeling the same pain as other states. Of course, Obama wrongly gets credit for their hard work and difficult choices (no surprise there!). Romney needs to hold these states out as examples of what can be done by the Republicans at a national level.

    So just how is California doing these days with Governor Moonbeam and the Democrats controlling the state? Still going bankrupt and hemorraging jobs and businesses???

    October 3, 2012 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  3. SugarKube

    Interesting Headline. Should have read Romney closes gap in all but 1 swing state.

    October 3, 2012 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  4. Republican Bill

    Romney is a joke and an embarrassment. Whenever he goes off talking points he says something stupid. If he was truthful, he would show the people he wants to vote for him his taxes, but they would see the arcane manipulations he has used for the last 10-15 years to avoid paying taxes. The man should be in jail, not running for President. His only care is to reduce his tax rate to zero. He won’t tell his economic plans because if he did, he would lose in a landslide. His pick for VP is even a bigger joke than Romney. Mr. Budget Hawk Ryan voted for every spending bill the Bush administration sent to Congress. The guy is a phony. His budget gives huge tax breaks to the rich and working folks get the shaft. He can’t even tell you the numbers because he doesn’t know what they are. Yeez, these guys make George W. look like a genius!

    October 3, 2012 12:18 pm at 12:18 pm |
  5. UrAverageJoe

    John in PA – Mitt Romney would bet you $10,000 that he's not even gonna be close in California. It's also kinda funny that even Karl Rove doesn't see Wisconsin or Pennsylvania (and certainly not California) as swing states where Romney is ahead! lol

    October 3, 2012 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm |
  6. usa

    Thanks, Truth Hurts – you're absolutely right. So, the twilight zone part is they don't know who is responsible for promoting their prosperity? How could it be that Obama has only helped Ohio, and not the rest of the country? Please look beyond your borders, Ohio, and see the big picture !!

    October 3, 2012 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  7. Rudy NYC

    America is beginning to turn its' collective nose up at Mitt Romnay and the Republican tactics to suppress the vote in so many states. Republicans are the ones committing the voter fraud, which they accuse liberals of doing.

    October 3, 2012 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm |
  8. Valentina

    Obama is polling below 50% almost everywhere, with 4-6% of still yet to decide. Ultimately the undecideds go for a challenger when they step into that booth to cast the vote. It means that Romney will be our next president, as he should be judging the state of Obama's economy and his lack of leadership and incompetence elsewhere.

    October 3, 2012 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
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