National polls indicate dead heat in Obama-Romney battle
October 9th, 2012
01:59 PM ET
10 years ago

National polls indicate dead heat in Obama-Romney battle

Washington (CNN) - Three new national polls of likely voters released in the past 24 hours indicate the race for the White House is all knotted up and suggest that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney got a bounce out of last Wednesday's first presidential debate.

According to a CNN Poll of Polls that averages all three non-partisan, live operator surveys, Romney has the support of 48% of likely voters, with President Barack Obama at 47%. While the CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error, the margin is well within the sampling error of the three surveys averaged into the CNN Poll of Polls.

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The surveys are the Pew Research Center, which was conducted October 4-7 (entirely after the debate), American Research Group, which was conducted October 5-8 (entirely after the debate), and the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, which was conducted October 2-8 (partially before and mostly after the debate).

The Gallup daily tracking poll indicated Romney at 49% and Obama 47% among likely voters.

This is Gallup's first release of a tracking poll of likely voters, so no comparison can be made to pre-debate surveys from Gallup.

The ARG poll indicates the former Massachusetts governor at 48%, with Obama at 47%. According to ARG's previous poll, conducted Sept. 27-30, the president was at 49% and Romney at 46%.

The Pew Poll indicates Romney with a 49%-45% advantage over Obama. In Pew's previous survey, conducted in mid-September, the president had a 51%-43% lead among likely voters.


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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (81 Responses)
  1. Cannuck Guy

    Another observation........Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan????......seriously???......Dont let the rest of the world judge all Americans for a descission like that............Then all the bad guys out there would definitely chomping at the mouth to engage America sooner than later into any conflict...why??? irrational new president, quick to act and ooopss!!! what has he done? commit you all to more hatred from the other side of the world......the other DRAIN YOUR ECONOMY...........Then you have a country totally dependant on the fittest of the fittest to survive.......World leaders are shaking their heads at the American people and cant understand that you all have a good thing going and is not looking forward to support Americans in any new conflicts....Wake up people.....your descissions on changing presidents now will be a calamity to world order......Think carefully people......buyers have it steady now.....dont rock the boat....!!!

    October 9, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  2. MTATL67

    Gallup as of today. Registered voters 49% vs. 46% in Obama's favor

    October 9, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  3. Dave Jaipersaud

    I find it troubling that the only specific thing that Romney's has identified in his plan to cut the deficit and not allow insurance companies to deny coverage to those with pre-existing conditions is to cut funding for Big Bird with just 28 days out from Election Day. Right now, you've got a federal deficit, federal debt that's over 16 trillion dollars and Romney’s plan to fix it in a responsible and balanced way is to cut funding for Big Bird. These idio&s have no idea how to bring the deficit in line in a responsible manner or create jobs.

    It doesn’t matter how Romney and the Republican try to spin their policies, the American people know how disastrous those policies have been for this country, especially for the Middle Class and less fortunate.

    Americans are not stupid. How can anyone even thing Romney’s policies will be better for this country. Romney and the Republicans policies from 2001 to 2008 brought this great nation to its knees, their policies caused the Great Recession, their policies wiped out almost 10,000,000 jobs as a direct result of the Great Recession, their policies wiped out retirement savings for tens of millions of Americans as a direct result to the Great Recession, their policies took a $1 trillion surplus to a $13 trillion deficit, their policies resulted in the decline in the percentage of Americans that are in the middle class, their policies resulted in tens of millions of Americans without healthcare, their policies resulted in millions of Americans losing their homes, their policies will be detrimental to Latinos and all other minorities, their policies will result in another war in the Middle East, and the list goes on.

    No Americans in their right mind will believe that Romney/Ryan policies will be better for the Economy. The only way for anyone to think that is if they are suffering from total amnesia. People will remember what happened in 2007/2008 and the years leading up to the Great Recession. It was the exact same policies that Romney is advocating now that caused the Great Recession. We are not that dumb to think that these same policies that caused the Great Recession will somehow magically make the economy better.

    I guess Romney/Ryan think we are all stupid and don’t know the truth and can’t remember the dark days of the great recession of 2007 and 2008 and the years leading up to it.

    The choice is clear. Do we want to go back to the exact same policies (Romney/Ryan current policies) that brought America (this great Nation) to its knees or do we want to continue to build on the recovery.

    October 9, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  4. truth hurts

    ghostriter - Matt, your side believed deficits didn't matter for 8 years.
    Are you too simple to understand that a yearly deficit of a few hundred billion dollars is NOT the same as a yearly deficit of 1.1-1.5 TRILLION?!! Obama has thrown this country into bankruptcy hyper-drive!!

    October 9, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  5. lnd72

    I think a lot of Americans got a good look at Romney for the first time during the debates, and realized that he doesn't really match the negative characterizations they seen of him. Also, sharing the stage with Obama put him on more even footing with the President.

    October 9, 2012 03:08 pm at 3:08 pm |
  6. PG#3

    People be aware of the fake and flipp flooper Romney/Ryan. Obama/Biden 2012

    October 9, 2012 03:10 pm at 3:10 pm |
  7. DENNA

    @ rrd: His campaign schedule doesn't matter. He is still running a country – you know, breathing and talking at the same time. Mittens, was just laying around like a snake in the grass, waiting.

    October 9, 2012 03:10 pm at 3:10 pm |
  8. Namejim

    Were going to win this election and the whitehouse senses it! There getting desperate and are attacking romneys character because they cant run on the administrations failed policys

    October 9, 2012 03:13 pm at 3:13 pm |
  9. The REAL Truth...

    @Howard – Americans have woken up, and are tired of being fooled by Obama ... in the past 4 years, he has nearly destroyed America.
    Howie.. welcome back.. just what we needed right now.. another right wing hater. Let's try to stick with TRUTH and FACTS in the discourse pls, tho' I know it's so hard for y'all to contain your hatred.
    FACT – the Grand Obstructionist Party along with their "refuse to compromise" Teabagger friends are what has destroyed the country over the last 4 years. Blocks, filibusters, anti-abortion and Defense spending increase riders on EVERY piece of legislation, blaming Reid for tabling them in the Senate.
    The GOP has blatantly put Party ahead of country the last four yrs and DESPITE their EVERY EFFORT, things ARE improving, slowly getting better. Imagine how much better off we'd be right now IF the GOP had actually worked WITH (and not AGAINST) the POTUS the last four yrs.
    Independents should do their own's easily verifiable.

    October 9, 2012 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  10. Lilli

    Pres. Obama will be ready for the flip-flopping etch-a-sketch man on Oct 16th!!!! Its obvious most people weren't keeping up at all with the campaigns up until the debate. Romney has played the roll he showed up in more than a time or two!

    And the pollster hasn't called me or even one person that I know to get an opinion! Yep Pres. Obama didn't show up and lots of his supporters are upset but will vote for him on Nov 6th. Romney is not the ANSWER!!! And he hasn't persuaded even one of his sons to go off to fight any of the present conflicts around the world and when he starts new wars, he want have one serving then either....five sons and not one serving in the military. ummmm...something is wrong with that!!! Are the armed forces to come from the 47% Romney wrote off and is now lying about it???? He meant it!!!!! Yes, he did!!

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

    October 9, 2012 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  11. truth hurts

    truth hurts – If you like the new liberal (or at least middle-of-the road) Romney that came out to play in the debate that's great. The truth is Mr. Romney couldn't tell the truth if his pants were on fire.
    Still on the two year tantrum campaign strategy??? Obama sends the UN Ambassador out to LIE for his administration for a week after a terrorist attack and Obama accuses others of lying? Now the truth comes out these incompetent fools CUT security there after there were requests to ADD security. Of course, the full picture of Obama's incompetence won't come out before the election but enough has come out to know he and his administration were lying through their teeth to the American people.

    The GOP lied that they were all about jobs in 2010,
    The American people voted Democrats out in record numbers in 2010 TO STOP OBAMA after the Obamacare fiasco. It will also be why more are thrown out this year, to get rid of Obamacare. The LIE about the costs of that nightmare grows every year. It is now 3 times what we were told and it hasn't even started in full yet.

    why in the world should we believe Mr. Romney when in his 47% video he stated that he didn't even need to do anything- the economy will just magically heal itself- that is simply delusional.
    What the heck are you talking about? He has plans but you dolts refuse to listen to them. Granted they are a tad more complicated than "Hope & Change" and "Forward". Maybe you should just let some adults run the country for a while and watch how fast things can get better. If Obama had been honest with the American people in 2008 and told everybody he was a social justice wealth redistribution socialist, hw NEVER would have gotten elected. But now far left socialist is out of the bag. Bad news for you and the Democrat Socialist Party.

    October 9, 2012 03:16 pm at 3:16 pm |
  12. DumbasRocks [R]s

    To be fair-is-fair, one must remember that it was only a week ago, when Obama was leading in the polls, that a legion of Teatards posted on here about how the polls were biased, unprofessional, inaccurate, meaningless, etc.

    And now these same [R]s will cling to the new poll results as if they were guns and religion.

    Only a chlid-like mind could revel in that kind of blatant hypocrisy.

    October 9, 2012 03:16 pm at 3:16 pm |

    Obama 2012 == Carter 1980
    Read it and weep...

    October 9, 2012 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  14. Fred

    GO ROMNEY!.Don't stop now.Keep reminding people what Obama and his policies are doing to our nation.Spending money that we don't have,making more people to depend on government subsidies by not creating good paying jobs for them,investing billions of dollars on green energy projects that favors his donors rather than sharing this money to the states so they could hire more teachers,cops and firefighters,and for not trying to balance the federal government budget.Keep telling people that traditional marriage is for a man a women.God bless.

    October 9, 2012 03:19 pm at 3:19 pm |

    In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

    October 9, 2012 03:21 pm at 3:21 pm |
  16. VonRam

    Oh boy! If people really look at the polls, especially the Pew polls, the main question they asked when they took that poll is who do you think won the debate. And of course many people said Romney and that's why its in his favor. When Obama does well in his next debate then these polls will change again. Polls won't and will never make since. The only thing counts are the Electoral votes.

    October 9, 2012 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  17. Lynda/Minnesota


    truth hurts-
    If you like the new liberal (or at least middle-of-the road) Romney that came out to play in the debate that's great.

    They don't. They've been programmed to think that this "new and better" version of Romney will revert back to being "severely" conservative after the election. That in itself is scary and dangerous because I sincerely doubt Romney actually gives a hoot about conservatives, moderates, or liberals. He hasn't been "winging" it this past year for nothing. Romney is much worse than GW - who I do think actually did care about America at one point before getting hot and bothered for war with Iraq. Romney has no scruples whatsoever.

    October 9, 2012 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  18. MTATL67

    ABC/Washington poll 51% dislike Romney

    October 9, 2012 03:25 pm at 3:25 pm |
  19. Zach

    You people really need to stop drinking the cool-aid that the "left leaning" media has been feeding you. OPEN YOUR EYES!!!! We are quickly in a downward spiral with no real hope of recovering under the current administartin. This man has you ALL fooled. He is sitting back and laughing while you all try to defend his failed policies. If you would bother to do a little bit of actual reasearch rather than continue to repeat what you read on CNN, MSNBC and the lattest left wing blogger; you would realize that you are supporting a losing team. America was built on the principles of fredom in our lives as well as our market system. you cannot continue to overegulate the businesses and expect them to thrive....and in case you do not understand simple economics, BUSINESS HIRE PEOPLE!! That is how we grow our work force.

    If you would oike a more detailed economics lesson, by all means, let me know. i would be more than happy to teach you all.

    If the President is reelected we will all suffer...yes, that includes you liberals too. He will not even save YOU from the destruction of this country

    October 9, 2012 03:26 pm at 3:26 pm |
  20. NYKnows

    Where are the Democrats screaming BIAS and FAKE NUMBERS! Oh, yeah, no where because Democrats are intelligent, reasonable human beings who don't have to make stuff up!

    October 9, 2012 03:26 pm at 3:26 pm |
  21. DumbasRocks [R]s

    truth is, truth hurts, that the cause of the large deficit is VERY SIMPLE to understand. If you were as smart as a 5th grader, it is quite straightforward to confirm that 90% of the deficits - over the $100s of billion mark - was structured into the budget and therefore ACTUALLY CAUSED by policies initiated during the Bush administration and his [R] congressional lemmings. You whiners keep yelping at Obama...but it was YOUR [R] politicians that caused today's deficit!!! Look it up. For only two examples, take the continuing COST of the Bush tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Its there online for all to see.

    But when you are a 5th grader, it is much easier to flail your arms and mindlessly blame others. Sad.

    October 9, 2012 03:27 pm at 3:27 pm |
  22. rrd

    "new and better" version of Romney


    It's not a new and better Romney, you just didn't see the Romney that David Axelrod created and that was what you were expecting.

    October 9, 2012 03:30 pm at 3:30 pm |
  23. Jackson

    I was called for one of the Presidential polls recently, I forget which one. I said I was voting for Romney, even though I'm voting for Obama.

    Polling is only accurate if the people being polled give accurate answers.

    Two of my friends in other parts of the country did the same thing when asked by people calling them about polls. They responded Romney when they're really voting for Obama.

    October 9, 2012 03:30 pm at 3:30 pm |
  24. craig

    just for fun i always tell the pollsters that i will vote for obama even though i will not. i have other friends who do that as well. i would not trust the polling data.

    October 9, 2012 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  25. bob

    Rasmussen has Romney leading over Obama 49% to 44%. I guess the Smear & Blame express has finally derailed.

    October 9, 2012 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
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